With a general election due on June 12, the prime minister does not want people's blood on his hands through collusion with the West
This commentary was published in The Economist on 12/04/2011
A spate of anti-Turkish protests has swept rebel-controlled parts of Libya. In Benghazi hundreds of worshippers chanted anti-Turkish slogans after Friday prayers.
"Take your beloved Gaddafi and allow us to be armed," read one placard. On April 6, more than 100 people gathered outside the Turkish consulate in Benghazi to demand the removal of the Turkish flag. "Revolutionaries want to arm," they sang.
Their frustration might be shared by Turkey's more hawkish Nato allies. Turkey's mildly Islamist AK government is rigidly against plans to arm Libyan rebels who might bring about the removal of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi by force. Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has been trying to broker a truce even while telling the colonel to step down and allow the establishment of a transition government. So far, no deal. But the dogged Davutoglu refuses to give up.
Since the uprising in Libya began, Turkey (caught off guard like others) has been squeamish about foreign intervention.
The prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even called the idea ‘absurd'. He was offended not to be invited to the first Paris conference to discuss Libya (Davutoglu went to the second, in London).
Turkish stonewalling has revived old questions about whether Turkey is turning its back on the West. It was only after France and Britain began pounding Libyan air defences that Turkey belatedly backed Nato's plans to create a no-fly zone. The Turks have since dispatched four frigates, one submarine and an extra warship to Libya. This week a Turkish ferry-turned-hospital took hundreds of Libyans wounded in the fighting for treatment in Turkey. Most were from the rebel camp.
The government has put a brave face on its U-turn, insisting that it moved only because Nato had taken the lead. More likely it feared being left out. This would have put a dent in Turkish claims to be the regional superpower. Yet Turkey remains fiercely opposed to expanding Nato's role in Libya, saying it should be limited to protecting civilians.
Outstanding contracts
Turkey's wobbles have less to do with Erdogan's purported anti-Western feelings than with pragmatism and a dollop of foresight. Some 20,000 Turks were working in Libya (most have now been repatriated).
The country has around $15 billion (Dh55.05 billion)worth of outstanding contracts that may be scrapped if the rebels win. As Lale Kemal, an Ankara-based defence expert, notes, "Turkey wants to keep its options open in Libya in case Gaddafi manages to hang on to its leadership position." The government is studiously vague about the possibility.
As Erdogan has repeatedly warned, Libya may be on the verge of a full-blown civil war. The more Nato gets sucked in, the greater the risk that civilians will die in its operations.
With a general election due on June 12, Erdogan does not want Libyan blood on his hands through collusion with the West. His pious electoral base remains ambivalent about Turkish support for American operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It does not help that American diplomatic cables just published by WikiLeaks have shown that Turkey's Incirlik airbase was used by the CIA to move Muslim detainees under Erdogan's watch.
Meanwhile, a fresh crisis is brewing as anti-government protests in Syria continue.
Erdogan has repeatedly urged President Bashar Al Assad to relax his grip, but to no avail. And what if Syria's restive Kurds were to join hands with the protesters and be shot at by Al Assad's men?
Thousands might cross the border into Turkey, already home to some 14 million Kurds. Many are sympathetic to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging a 26-year-long battle against Turkish forces. The last thing Turkey needs is more rebellious Kurds
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