Time For Political Deals In Libya And Yemen

By Osama al-Sharif
This commentary was published in The Arab News on 12/04/2011

It's time for diplomacy in Libya and Yemen.

In the former a delegation representing the African Union (AU) has proposed a five-point road map that aims to achieve an immediate cease-fire, withdrawal of forces from cities and the beginning of negotiations between the government and the opposition. After visiting Tripoli this week, the delegation announced that Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi has agreed in principle to stop all hostilities and allow foreign forces to help keep the peace.

But the National Transitional Council in Benghazi rejected the offer and said that Qaddafi and his sons must relinquish power first. Where does this leave the AU's initiative is unknown, but in recent days focus has been shifting toward finding a political solution to the three-month old crisis which has left at least 9,000 Libyans dead so far.

NATO, which is now overseeing the implementation of UN resolutions on Libya, said that its jet fighters will continue to strike pro-Qaddafi forces in order to protect civilians, but senior officials admitted that they do not believe a military solution could end the crisis there. In light of the poor rebel performance in the past few days against government troops, it is unlikely that aerial bombardment alone will help them to advance toward Tripoli and remove Qaddafi by force.

But the AU's initiative could open the way for more diplomatic efforts in the near future. Turkey is believed to be working on a peace plan of its own, while the Arab League will meet again to review developments. The military stalemate will certainly play in favor of Qaddafi, whose forces continue to bombard key cities like Misrata in the west while controlling key oil facilities in Ras Lanouf and Breiga in the east.

Badly hurt by NATO bombing, loyalists to Qaddafi continue to have access to heavy weapons and are able to regroup and extend their supply lines. On the other hand, it took four days of vicious fighting in and around the town of Ajdabya between government forces and the rebels before coalition bombing drove the loyalists back.

Meanwhile, the deadlock has also taken its toll on NATO members where questions are being raised about finding an exit strategy and financing the mission on the long run. France and Britain remain steadfast, until now, but the longer they are involved in the military operations, the bigger the political risks they are likely to face at home. And if a military solution is now excluded, what would be the alliances' next move?

The United States, which has recently withdrawn its jet fighters and most of its battle ships from Libya, is taking a step back. It continues to call for Qaddafi's exit, but Washington is divided over the issue of arming the rebels and formally recognizing them.

International markets too want a cease-fire even if it means that Qaddafi and his sons might stay in power for a bit longer. Oil prices, which have been rising steadily for weeks, eased a bit as the AU delegation proposed a peace plan.

It is now clear that NATO, and the international community, will not allow Qaddafi's forces to overrun Benghazi and destroy the rebels. But it is also clear that there will be no escalation in foreign military involvement to allow the rebels to advance beyond where they are now. The siege of Tripoli and the overthrow of Libya's strongman by his own people is now a far-fetched scenario.

At one point pressure will be put on the rebel leadership to accept some sort of a political accommodation that will allow for peace talks. This is the price that the rebels will have to pay so long as they rely on international aid and support. On the other hand, efforts will continue to convince Col. Qaddafi to accept a compromise of some sort that will finally remove him from the scene.

Either way a dramatic end to the Libyan crisis is now out of question. The country may remain divided for months and maybe more. Qaddafi has proved to be a tough player indeed and has been able to withstand military and political pressures. He has managed to absorb the initial international and regional reaction to his bloody suppression of what started as a peaceful uprising against his rule. He will fight until the end, whatever that may be. But for the time being we can expect to see a deadlock on the ground as diplomatic activities intensify.

Likewise, Yemen is also subject of diplomatic efforts seeking to find a way out of the current impasse. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has not rejected the latest GCC proposition that he hand over power to his deputy and allow for a national unity government headed by the opposition to be formed, but he shifted the responsibility of debunking this latest initiative to his opponents. The gap between the two sides has been widening, especially since government forces opened fire against protesters in Sanaa, Taez, Hodaida and other Yemeni cities. Here the main interlocutor is the GCC which has an immediate interest in seeing a peaceful transition of power takes place in Yemen.

Unlike in Libya, President Saleh has accepted, in principle, to step down and hand over power to a suitable successor. But the opposition has been adamant in its demand that he leave immediately. Their rejection of the GCC's latest plan is unfortunate because it could have presented an appropriate framework for a political way out of the current crisis, especially that the president has lost the backing of his key supporters in the West as well as in the region.

The current impasse in Yemen is dangerous because it threatens to drag the country into chaos and violence. A political deal is needed and the opposition is urged to reconsider its position now.

 Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Amman.