By Josh Rogin
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
The
Obama administration is moving to provide direct assistance to the internal opposition
in Syria for the first time, marking a shift in U.S. policy toward a more
aggressive plan to help oust President Bashar al-Assad.
Last
week, a group of senior Obama administration officials met to finalize a
package of options for aiding both the internal and external Syrian opposition,
to include providing direct humanitarian and communications assistance to the
Syrian opposition, two administration officials confirmed to The Cable. This
meeting of what's known as the Deputies Committee of the National Security
Council set forth a new and assertive strategy for expanding U.S. engagement
with Syrian activists and providing them with the means to organize themselves,
but stops short of providing any direct military assistance to the armed
opposition.
For
now, riskier options, such as creating a no-fly zone in Syria, using U.S.
military force there, or engaging directly with the Free Syrian Army, are all
still off the table. But the administration has decided not to oppose, either
in public or in private, the arming of the rebels by other countries, the
officials said.
"These
moves are going to invest the U.S. in a much deeper sense with the
opposition," one administration official said. "U.S. policy is now
aligned with enabling the opposition to overthrow the Assad regime. This
codifies a significant change in our Syria policy."
The
package of options will be debated by cabinet-level officials at what's known
as a Principals Committee meeting as early as this afternoon, the two officials
said. The principals could endorse the entire package or make some changes, the
officials said, although the package does have the consensus of the interagency
coming out of last week's Deputies Committee meeting.
The
administration is planning to greatly expand its interactions with the external
Syrian opposition, led by the Syrian National Council, as well as with internal
opposition bodies to include Syrian NGOs, the Local Coordinating Councils, and
the Revolutionary Councils that are increasingly becoming the de facto
representation of the Syrian opposition. The Free Syrian Army works with these
councils, but the administration is not ready to engage the armed rebels
directly out of concern that they are still somewhat unaccountable and may have
contacts with extremist elements.
As
part of the new outreach, the State Department and USAID have been tasked with
devising a plan to speed humanitarian and communications assistance to the
internal Syrian civilian opposition, working through State's Middle East
Partnership Initiative (MEPI) office. There is no concrete plan yet as to how
to get the goods into Syria if the Assad regime doesn't grant access to
affected areas.
"We're
leaving State and USAID to work that out. That's the million-dollar question.
We're working on that now," the official explained.
Meanwhile,
the administration wants to bolster the new defense committee established by
the SNC last week, hoping to solidify that body's prominence as the contact
point for coordinating military and technical assistance to the rebels, if a
decision is taken later to move in that direction. The FSA has rejected the
SNC's defense committee as being part of its chain of command, but for now the
Obama administration sees the SNC as a more credible organization with which to
explore options to potentially provide military aid.
"The
prevailing narrative is enabling the transition while keeping options open for
reaching out to the armed opposition," the administration official said.
"There is recognition that lethal assistance to the opposition may be
necessary, but not at this time."
At
last month's initial Friends of Syria meeting in Tunis, Saudi Foreign Minister
Saud al-Faisal said that arming the Syrian rebels was "an excellent
idea," though there are conflicting reports as to whether and to what
extent Saudi weapons and cash were already flowing into the country.
In
preparation for the next Friends of Syria meeting in Turkey later this month,
the Obama administration has decided not to openly oppose direct military
assistance to the rebels as long as it comes from another country, not the
United States, one of the administration officials said.
"The
decision has been made at the next Friends of Syria meeting to not oppose any
proposals to arm the FSA and we're not going to publicly or privately message
on that," the official said. "We're not going to publicly or
privately tell the Friends of Syria not to do this."
Inside
the administration, there is still a consensus that U.S. military intervention
in Syria is not wise at this time and there are still voices expressing hope
that political transition could take place in Syria without all out civil war.
"It's
more about what could be accomplished by intervening. So many questions haven't
been answered," another administration official said, expressing the
widespread internal uneasiness about involving the U.S. military in yet another
war in the Middle East. "There's a chance we could get embroiled in a
conflict. What does that do to our preparedness for other contingencies?"
Some
in the administration still hold out hope that the Russians can be persuaded to
play a more helpful role in Syria. But two officials confirmed that Russian
arms deliveries to Syria are ongoing and one administration official said that
the latest shipment included large amounts of advanced anti-aircraft missile
systems, which are meant to help Syria repel any attempt to establish a no-fly
zone.
"What
that says is that the Russians are doubling down on Assad. They're preparing
for the next step, which is the internationalization of the conflict," one
administration official said.
For
the critics of Obama's Syria policy, these moves represent a step in the right
direction but still fall short of what is needed for the United States to halt
the violence.
"I
am encouraged the Obama administration is exploring steps to provide direct
assistance to Syrians inside their country, but the incremental measures reportedly
under consideration still do not come to grips with the fundamental reality in
Syria, which is that Bashar al-Assad, equipped and resupplied by Iran and
Russia, is now waging an outright war against the Syrian people, who are
outmatched, outgunned, and urgently in need of decisive international
intervention," Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) told The Cable today.
Lieberman,
along with Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) came out Monday
in favor of a U.S.-led intervention in Syria to begin immediately.
"To
me this should begin with medical and military assistance for the opposition,
including tactical intelligence and weapons, and ultimately should include
targeted airstrikes against Assad's bases and forces," Lieberman said.
"The United States should help organize such support for the Syrian
opposition, but it should be international and include our concerned allies in
the Arab League, the GCC, NATO, and the EU."
Lieberman,
McCain, and Graham will all have a chance to question the administration on
these new moves Wednesday when the Senate Armed Services Committee holds a
hearing with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joints Chiefs Chairman Gen.
Martin Dempsey.
NSC
spokesman Tommy Vietor declined to comment on the administration's internal
deliberations.
-This article was published in Foreign Policy on 06/03/2012
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