This commentary was published in The Gulf News on 09/06/2011
It is all too easy for the blazing excitement of the Arab Spring to peter out. That glorious season of hope does not automatically have to lead to success. It can easily become a flash in the pan, and fade into Arab folk memory as one of those many things that might have been.
Libya could split into two warring regions: the government-controlled west and rebel-controlled east. If the war extends into months and then years, then the army groups and tribes who are defending the Muammar Gaddafi government will see little reason to change allegiance as they will fear vengeance and retribution from their opponents. And the Nato partners will face war fatigue from their populations if their initial commitment drags out into years of action.