Saleh's Game Is Into Extra Time

Sulaiman Al Hattlan writes: The Yemeni president's insistence on holding onto power could drag the country into civil war
This commentary was published in The Gulf News on 23/04/2011

Yemen will likely slide into a devastating civil war if President Ali Abdullah Saleh continues to reject the demands of millions of youth who are adamant that the veteran leader step down immediately.

Although the youth have been insisting that Saleh leave, he still holds onto power. Stepping down is the key demand of the youth revolt, yet Saleh has not taken his people's calls seriously despite the graveness of the situation.

Apart from Saleh's stubbornness, his other problem is that he has become addicted to the ‘political game' playing Islamists and tribes against one another, as well as manipulating the sectarian strife and the threat of Al Qaida.

Saleh sometimes dances with snakes and sometimes sleeps with the wolves as he, appeases and employs various factions and tribes in order to maintain his power.

Nowadays, Saleh seems to be unaware that he is playing alone and in extra time! Many of those close to him are also looking for the earliest opportunity to escape from the pit in which Yemen's president is entrenched.

Mr President please tell me who is still with you? Are they a few ministers who are accustomed to your insults, or a handful of beneficiaries, including your cousins and clan? Are you still betting on your political adviser, Dr Abdul Karim Al Aryani who may soon save his reputation and abandon you after he stood by you all along while you plot against him in secret and public?

I will be truly surprised if Al Aryani does not stop betting on the losing horse and change his stand by announcing his support for the ‘youth of change'. There is still room for Al Aryani to clinch this historical chance to make amends for his long standing support for Saleh who, along with his clan wreaked havoc on the country.

The question is why does Saleh deny all facts around him and insist on staying in power?

Negligence in south

We will not overlook the Yemeni president's achievements, represented in two main issues: unity and relative stability. Yet there is another side. There is a long list of reasons behind Saleh's success in the unity project between north and south Yemen. And we are fully aware of factors that contributed to Yemen's relative stability after the conflict between the military men — coup planners and plotters — who came before Saleh.

Yet, these two achievements do not justify his present stance, treating the Yemeni presidency as though it were an heirloom. Saleh is a president of republic and not an heir to the throne.

Saleh's success in uniting Yemen does not justify his intentional negligence with regard to development in the south, and his narrow-minded approach to the issue. This is simply because unity does not mean excluding or marginalising southern Yemenis which was the reason behind the calls for separation by many southerners in the past two years.

However, calls for separation in the south have disappeared since the revolt began. This provides concrete evidence that the policies of Saleh and his associates were behind such calls. Corruption always leads to internal conflicts, division and separation — and this was the case in Yemen before the unrest.

Many veteran Yemeni politicians believe that reasons behind the call for separation will vanish with the departure of Saleh from the political scene. Among these is Haidar Abu Bakr Al Attas, former Yemeni prime minister — a prominent opponent who was calling for separation. He said to me over the phone that calls for separation will disappear once Saleh leaves, and that by holding onto power, Saleh seems to be trying to destroy one of his most important national achievements — unity.

Yemen's president has been totally engaged in political games at the expense of development. Yemen paid dearly for Saleh's political games and has been ranked on the list of failed states.

Many questions arise here: Where are modern state institutions and infrastructure projects in Yemen, where 40 per cent of the people live below the poverty line? Yemen has been registering the highest population growth rate with an annual 30 per cent increase. Under all these miserable conditions, what is the advantage of the stability which Saleh boasts about? Writing about Yemen is not only a professional and ethical responsibility towards the people in Yemen, but is a responsibility towards GCC countries.

This is because the deteriorating situation in Yemen will reflect on the GCC countries in many forms. And Saleh's insistence on holding onto power may take the country into a civil war that would also drag neighbouring states into sectarian and tribal conflicts, posing a threat to the whole region.

Therefore, efforts by GCC countries to end the crisis in Yemen are in the best interests of the Gulf national security. Yet, the effort will not be successful until the GCC openly calls for Saleh to quit after three decades in power.

Then, the GCC countries will turn a new page of cooperation with Yemen, where peace and tranquillity may prevail. Will Saleh listen to his people's calls and leave?

Sulaiman Al Hattlan, a former Nieman Fellow at Harvard, is the host of Gulf Talks on Al Hurra TV. He is the founder of the upcoming news project, www.hattlan.com. He lives and works in Dubai.