By Anya Barry
Despite
the widespread international denunciation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,
the government in Damascus continues to crack down hard on the country’s
growing domestic opposition. “They are moving in a direction that completely
shows that they are absolutely out of touch,” says Yasser Tabbara, the
secretary general of the Syrian National Council (SNC), a government opposition
group. Other countries in the region have experienced revolutions, but Syria
remains in a state of uncertainty. At the UN, China and Russia vetoed a
Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian government’s actions, making
a coordinated international response even more difficult.
Meanwhile,
as the conflict rages on, Syria continues to receive shipments of military supplies—specifically
from countries like Iran, Lebanon, and Russia. In January, Russia inked a
lucrative deal with the Syrian government to sell approximately $500 million
worth of military arms in the form of 36 Yak-130 aircraft combat jets. Russia’s
actions have caused significant outcry from the international community.
High-ranking officials such as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice
as well as other Western diplomats have stated their strong disapproval of
Russia’s move. Over the past 10 months, Syria’s escalating violence has
resulted in the deaths of 5,400 civilians. Russia’s combat jets are
specifically designed to shoot targets on the ground, which could lead to an
increase in the civilian death toll.
Arms Embargo?
In
response to the ongoing problems in Syria, the Moroccan delegation to the UN
introduced a resolution calling for an arms embargo on Syria and for Assad’s
resignation. Russia vetoed the resolution, claiming that it would precipitate
regime change and a possible civil war. As Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister
Gennady Gatilov stated, “there is no clear line between arms contraband that
some countries engage in to support extremist forces in Syria, and the legal
military-technical ties with this country.” Russia has claimed that the
violence occurring in Syria is the result of opposition groups rather than
Assad’s security forces. One rebel group, the Free Syrian Army, has been trying
to smuggle weapons across the border through Lebanon, but the amounts pale in
comparison to what the Syrian security forces have been receiving from abroad.
According
to Business Insider, Syria is one of Russia’s largest weapons consumers,
purchasing around $4 billion total in military supplies. Additionally, Syria’s
port of Tartus, where Russia recently sent an aircraft carrier, serves as
Russia’s sole naval base in the region. Russia has also invested around $19.4
billion in Syria’s infrastructure and exports about $1.1 billion in goods to
the nation. If Assad were to resign, Russian business interests could be
seriously put at risk. An additional motive for Russia’s staunch support for
the Assad regime is the concern that if Syria’s government were to crumble, it
could have a domino effect in the nearby Russian North Caucasus region.
Over
the last 20 years, Russian arms exports to Syria have generally outweighed
shipments from other countries, according to SIPRI. Since 1992, Russia has sold
$525 million in military equipment to Syria. The largest of these sales
occurred in 2009 and 2010, consisting of $162 million in exports each year. The
only nation to come close to these sales is North Korea, with $306 million in
exports, but it hasn’t sent anything since 2004. More recently, records show a
significant transfer of weapons from Belarus, totaling out at $196 million
between 2003 and 2008. Since 2006, Iran has also sold Assad’s regime $64
million in ammunitions and weaponry—an amount that has almost certainly grown
in recent months as Syria’s turmoil escalates.
Iran, Lebanon, and Libya
Another
recent development in the conflict in Syria is the shipment of Iranian arms, by
trucks disguised as vegetable and fruit produce, across the Iraqi-Syrian
border. Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki granted permission for the arms
to be shipped through Iraq, enraging the Syrian opposition. Originally, Iran
intended to send the weapons into the country by air, but Turkey demanded that
the planes—which were in their airspace—land for inspection. Iran turned to the
land route through Iraq instead.
Lebanon
has also developed into a lucrative source of black-market arms deals across
the porous border it shares with Syria. According to reporter Nicholas
Blanford, the consumers of these black market weapons are generally protesters
angry at the president and his regime, or those who feel the growing need to
protect themselves due to the escalating unstable climate in Syria. These
black-market weapons are fueling an increase in violence in several cities
along the Lebanese-Syrian border, such as Homs, where Syrian opposition members
have established their stronghold. The Lebanese government itself has placed
its support in Assad’s government, since stability in Damascus translates into
economic security for Lebanese exports.
One
nation has voiced particularly strong support for Syrian opposition
forces—Libya. In October, the newly formed government in Tripoli was the first
to recognize the SNC, the country’s main opposition group. The Libyan
government also went so far as to open the nation’s borders to any Syrian refugees
who wished to take up residence in Libya.
One
month later, Syrian rebels from the SNC met with members of the Libyan
government, requesting military assistance. As Wisam Taris, a human rights
worker with connections to the SNC explained, “The Libyans are offering money,
training and weapons to the Syrian National Council.” Since that time, there
have been many rumors that the SNC has negotiated with Libya to secure arms for
the more militant Free Syrian Army. The SNC, which has emphasized nonviolent resistance,
has denied the rumors. “The Free Army must act in a way suited to the goals and
the aims of the SNC,” explains SNC member Khaled Khodja. “The duty of this
group is to protect, not to attack.”
Solutions for a Complex Conflict
When
asked whether the United States would consider arming the Syrian rebel forces,
White House spokesperson Jay Carney responded, “We are not considering that
step right now.” Officials in the State Department have hinted, however, that
this option is not altogether off the table. In Congress, Senator John McCain
(R- AZ) has voiced his own support for arming the opposition: “We should start
considering options, arming the opposition…. the bloodletting has got to stop.”
But the White House has remained adamant that sanctions and international
pressure have gradually weakened Assad’s regime.
At
this point, the Obama administration has wisely chosen not to add fuel to the
Syrian fire. Giving military aid to either side of the Syrian conflict will
make civil war more likely and prevent the citizens of Syria from achieving any
semblance of justice and freedom.
Diplomatic
solutions, moderated by the Arab League, must continue to be applied to
pressure Assad to respect the demands of his people and give up power to an
individual of their choosing. Lebanon must discontinue its funneling of
black-market arms into Syria, and Russia and Iran must suspend their shipments
as well. In a glimmer of hope, Russian officials have hinted that, should the
Assad regime show signs of decline, they would back a UN resolution. As one top
Russian official stated, ‘“if sanctions could help stop violence and maintain
stability... we would be the most decisive supporters." Convincing Russia
to stop the flow of arms to Syria might ultimately have more impact on Assad’s
behavior than all the diplomatic efforts of the international community.
-This commentary was published in Foreign Policy In Focus on
13/02/2012
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