- Theodore Friend, former President of Swarthmore College and President Emeritus of Eisenhower Fellowships, is a Senior Fellow of FPRI. Among other books, he is the author of INDONESIAN DESTINIES (2003), and of the forthcoming WOMAN, MAN, AND GOD IN MODERN ISLAM, which will be published by the William B. Eerdmans Co. in November, 2011. This essay was requested by the publisher as an Epilogue to the book. The author is grateful to Mary French, Bruce Lawrence, and Heba Ramzy, whose critical comments have improved this essay
2.[Text} Excellent articles: Peter Turchin, “Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology: Ibn Khaldûn meets Al Saud,” in Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrae Korataev, and Victor C. de Munk, History and Mathematics: Historical Development of Complex Societies (Moscow, Kom Kniga, 2006); pp. 9-38; William R. Polk, “Encounters with Ibn Khaldûn,” www.williampolk.com/pdf/2001/Encounters....
3.[Text} Heba Ramzy, e-mail correspondence with the author, 28-29 June 2011.
4.[Text} New York Times, 12 May 2011, p. A10.
5.[Text} And prevailed despite enormous national frustration, already symbolized in 2010 by the performance artist Ahmed Basiony. He had publicly run in place an hour a day for thirty days, while sensors on his suit used his sweat to project a flush of colors on video screens around him. On January 30, 2011, in Tahrir Square he was shot dead. His artistic career subsequently became the centerpiece of the Egyptian exhibit at the Venice Biennale, breaking the tradition of previously academic submissions by Egypt. www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/art/egypt-displays-an-artful-legacy-at-the-venice-biennale”
6.[Text} Lally Weymouth interviewed generals for washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/Egyptian-generals-speak….18 May 2011. The evaluative language is mine.
7.[Text} Interview, Heba Ramzy, 19 May 2011.
8.[Text} I am grateful to Ambassador (ret.) Adrian Basora, Director of the Project on Democratic Transitions at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia, for his essay, with Jean F. Boone, “A New U.S. Policy Towards Democracy in Post-Communist Europe/Eurasia,” January 2010; and for his personal notes, “Arab Revolutions of 2011 vs. Post-Communist Transitions of 1989-91.”
9.[Text} Here I owe perspective to three scholars who presented a seminar on “Egypt, Regime Change, and the Muslim Brotherhood” at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia, 24 May 2011: Samuel Helfont, Aaron Rock, and Eric Trager.
10.[Text} Bruce B. Lawrence, “Islam and Civil Society – Perspectives from Egypt before and after Mubarak,” talk prepared for Philadelphia, 2 May 2011 (but not formally given, displaced by news of the death of Osama bin Laden), p. 2.
11.[Text} Christopher Alexander, “Authoritarianism and Civil Society in Tunisia,” Middle East Report, October-December, 1997.
12.[Text} My outlook here was informed by numerous trips, as President of Eisenhower Fellowships, to Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria, 1985-1992.
13.[Text} The figure “47” comes from my own interviews in Riyadh with two female drivers of 1991. Other information: //www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/17/Saudi-arabia-women-drivers-protest….’ //English.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/201161694746333674.html.
14.[Text} On mosques: www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/30/114980/bahrain’s-official-tally-shows.
15.[Text} bbc.co.uk/news/world/middle-east-13216195-“Bashar Al-Assad’s Inner Circle,” May 18, 2011.
16.[Text} This video appears on YouTube as “Hamza Al Khatib-Truth of his Death.” I cite it despite its unpersuasive tone and its unpopularity. Several other videos on Hamza are dramatically sympathetic to him, highly political, and much more often visited.
17.[Text} For historical ideology and emotion on this subject, see .
18.[Text} Margot Badran, Feminism in Islam: Secular and Religious Convergences (Oxford, Oneworld, 2009), p. 310 and passim.
19.[Text} New York Times, 9 June 2011, p. A10.
20.[Text} Isobel Coleman, .
21.[Text} The abduction appears on . More offensive detail is conveyed, compellingly, on YouTube, “Eman Al-Obeidi to Anderson Cooper (complete).”
22.[Text} Quotation from Malise Ruthven, “Storm over Syria,” New York Review of Books, 9 June 2011, pp. 16-20. “Women and the Rise of Religious Consciousness,” by Anonymous, is a brave attempt, necessarily controversial, to open up the subject for Syria and the region: Joshua Landis, Syria Comment, 28 September 2010
24.[Text} Alice Hackman,
25.[Text} New York Times, 11 June 2011, p. A6.
26.[Text} Margot Badran to the author, 7, 8 June 2011.