Saturday, January 15, 2011

Lebanon: In Precarious Position, Once Again

By Musa Keilani
This commentary was published in The Jordan Times on 16/01/2011
 
The dichotomy between the Arab masses and their political leaders can be found in Lebanon: the official support goes for the Hariri groups while the masses regard Hizbollah as the only power worthy of support.

The crisis in Lebanon resulting from the dispute between the political camps of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the Islamic movement Hizbollah comes at a time when the Arab world is trying to lift the logjam in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. A wasted exercise that might indeed be, but efforts to arrive at a fair and just solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem simply cannot be given up.

The Lebanese crisis, resulting from opposite positions over the work of the UN tribunal investigating the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2006, is indeed worrisome. An eruption of armed violence cannot be ruled out; some pundits suggest that Hizbollah, the strongest military force in Lebanon, and its Christian ally Michel Aoun might seek to seize control of key parts of the country.

The United States and its allies in Europe are aware of the danger and are taking measures to deal with the eventuality of Hizbollah using military force to paralyse Lebanon. Hizbollah, which is riding high on support from Iran and Syria, is unlikely to succumb to warnings and pressure from the West. It is bent upon having its way in the country.

Equally strong is the US determination not to let that happen. The administration of President Barack Obama is backed by European and Arab countries in this context. According to reports in the Israeli press, Obama has ordered US warships to support the Sixth Fleet stationed in the eastern Mediterranean with the USS Enterprise carrier and its strike group with 6,000 sailors and marines aboard and 80 fighter bombers. The USS Bainbridge missile destroyer is also in the area. France is also beefing up its naval strength in Eastern Mediterranean.

The moves, which took place over last weekend and continued through the week, were meant to be a signal to Iran and Hizbollah that the US-led West is prepared to use military force to defend the government of Saad Hariri. Now that Hizbollah and its allies have brought down the government, it seems that they are determined to go ahead with their plans. They might be aiming at securing better political strength through the crisis.

No one wants a new civil war in Lebanon and an intervention by Israel, which is waiting for the right opportunity to destroy Hizbollah might backfire. However, the crisis in Lebanon is very serious. It is yet another reflection of Iranian interference in Arab affairs.

The most visible sign of Iranian moves in Lebanon is the repeated declarations by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is investigating the Hariri assassination, and its rulingsare not valid since they serve “foreign interests”. Iran ignores that the STL is backed by the UN and was created in response to a request by the sovereign government of Lebanon.

There might indeed be politics involved, but that does not negate the fact that political assassinations should not be tolerated and those behind such actions should be brought to justice. At the same time, no one should tamper with independent investigations that could lead to a fair and just conclusion.

Israel, which is itching to “avenge” the humiliation it suffered in its 2006 war against Lebanon, has been beating the drums of war against Hizbollah for some time. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that Hizbollah has in its possession as many as 60,000 missiles and rockets, all of Iranian and Syrian origin. Former head of Mossad Meir Dagan asserted that only 10 countries in the world have the firepower equivalent to that of Hizbollah’s.

According to an Israeli report, “it is definitely on the cards for an Iranian-Hizbollah move in Lebanon provoking a US-French military response to evolve into a clash between Hizbollah and Israel, providing an opportunity for the destruction of Hizbollah’s mighty missile arsenal”.

Obviously, it is not as much the crisis over the STL as the push against Hizbollah that is at play in Lebanon.

Many around the world, including Arab countries, applauded Hizbollah when it not only withstood the Israeli onslaught in 2006 but also took the war to Israeli cities and towns. Since then, however, Hizbollah has sought only to impose its will on the country.

There has to be a peaceful solution to the crisis in Lebanon, but not at the cost of sacrificing democratic principles and the broader national interests of the country. Ideally, external powers should stay away from interference in any country’s internal affairs.

In the case of Lebanon, Hizbollah and its allies seem determined to draw in Iranian intervention; the record of Lebanese groups is such that it would not take much for them to react to that move and reciprocateby drawing their guns and starting to fire away, forcing the international community to intervene.

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