Iraq: Caution Greets Al Sadr's Return

The 'kingmaker' will no doubt have an important role to play in the stabilisation of Iraq

By Mohammad Akef Jamal
This commentary was published in The Gulf News on 21/01/2011

Moqtada Al Sadr's return to Najaf after three years of self-imposed exile in the Iranian city of Qom has generated great interest inside the country and abroad.

Al Sadr is one of the most popular political leaders among poor Iraqis, and he is the leader of the largest bloc in the new parliament, where he has a unified alliance of 40 lawmakers.

Some have described him as ‘kingmaker' following the important role he played in deciding who will become Iraq's prime minister on three consecutive occasions — he was instrumental in the rise of Ebrahim Al Jafari in 2005 and the accession of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki in 2006, and again in 2010. Moreover, Al Sadr's endorsement of Al Maliki ended the Kurdish Alliance's reluctance to align with the State of Law coalition. However, Al Sadr has not been able to achieve his ambitions lately for two reasons:

The first is his stance against the political mainstream in Iraq which is conciliatory towards the US, and his movement's opposition to the Security Agreement that was signed between the US and Iraq.

The second is the growing influence of — and violence by — the Mahdi Army, which prompted the Iraqi government in 2008 to crack down against the movement in Basra. The clashes spread even to Sadr City in Baghdad. As a result, hundreds of Sadrists were killed and thousands captured.

After these bloody events, Al Sadr chose exile to express his discontent with Al Maliki's policies and for his personal safety as well.

Sadr's return to Iraq may well be considered a move to support Al Maliki. However, this support must be regarded with caution.

In his first speech delivered in Najaf before thousands of his supporters and followers, Al Sadr stressed that "the first goal of the Iraqi people is the exit of the occupiers". However he added that this does not mean that everyone has to carry arms. Instead, he said that resistance may take various forms.

He also stressed that his support for Al Maliki was conditional on the government's success in providing services to the people.

Undoubtedly, there has been a significant shift in the way Sadrists think, given their bitter past experiences. Al Sadr's speech in Najaf reflects a change in strategy.

The change in the Sadrist's strategy is not reflected in Moqtada's statements alone — it is also reinforced in various things he has said lately. For instance, he has accused Sadrist dissidents of abducting and killing Iraqis.

Moreover, he has called on them to return to the path of righteousness. Al Sadr has also decided to transform the Mahdi Army into a cultural organisation. Furthermore, he has sacked 100 people from the "Promised Day Brigade" because they took part in a military parade in Sadr City on the occasion of Ashura in December.

Nevertheless, judging the success of Al Sadr's new approach depends on a number of factors, most notably his seriousness in conducting an objective and comprehensive review of the movement's performance.

Al Sadr needs advisers who are in sync with the new approach of the Sadrist movement. The positive step taken by Al Sadr to return to the political process has gained his movement important positions in government.

The first Deputy Chairman of the House, and one of the deputy prime ministers are from the Sadrist movement. The Sadrists have also bagged seven ministerial portfolios.

Moqtada's return will also contribute towards solving problems between the Iraqi government and his followers, as there are thousands of Sadrists behind bars, some of them on death row.

For his part, Al Maliki is facing pressure from his partners on various issues concerning national security, which may lead to polarisation in society. The Sadrists have made it very clear that they will walk out of the alliance with Al Maliki if he allows the US troops to remain in Iraq after the set date of their departure by the end of this year.

Concerned

There are those who are concerned about the return of Al Sadr. The US for one does not look favourably at the matter, especially since he had led the fight against its military presence in the past.

Some of Iraq's neighbouring countries also have reservations about his return because of Al Sadr's close relationship with Iran. Will his return be a stabilising factor in the Iraqi political process or otherwise?

Al Sadr will no doubt have an important role to play, and we shall hear his name as many times as we hear the names of other big players in the Iraqi political arena, such as Massoud Barzani, Jalal Talabani, Nouri Al Maliki, Eyad Allawi, Ebrahim Al Jafari, Osama Al Nujaifi and others. However, he will be one of the few who will be holding the strings of power in the Iraqi political scene.

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.