Arab Protesters Tire Of The Men Who Would Be Kings

Dynastic succession is common in the Middle East – but across the region, heirs-apparent have cause for concern

 By Simon Tisdall

This commentary was published in The Guardian on 27/01/2011

Gamal Mubarak, son of the Egyptian president Hosni, is one of the Arab would-be 'dauphins'. Photograph: Nasser Nuri/Reuters

Rising food prices, corruption, endemic poverty, high levels of youth unemployment and authoritarian governance are common factors linking street protests currently raging through the Arab world from Algeria to Egypt.

But as seasoned Middle East analysts such as the Financial Times's Roula Khalaf have noted, grassroots opposition to the increasingly prevalent practice of dynastic succession or tawrith – inherited rule – among non-monarchical, secular regimes is also fuelling the unrest. Across the region, Arab rulers are seeking to perpetuate their rule by passing on power to favoured sons or other male family members. But such cosy succession schemes are anathema to demonstrators pushing for expanded democratic rights. They also underscore the low status afforded to women.

After this month's successful intifada in Tunisia, which overthrew the self-perpetuating ruling family, would-be dauphins, pretenders and heirs-apparent throughout the Middle East are wondering whether their dynastic great expectations may yet be thwarted. Here are some of the men who would be king:

Egypt

Egyptians have long assumed their charmless president Hosni Mubarak, 82, who came to power unexpectedly in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat, is planning to transfer power to his equally unprepossessing son, Gamal – a wheeze both deny. Gamal, a western-trained banker, is deputy secretary-general of his dad's ruling National Democratic party. But unlike his father, he has no military constituency, no experience of public office – and like his father, he lacks popular support. Reports in recent days that Gamal boarded a private jet in Cairo with 100 pieces of luggage and fled to London appear to be wishful thinking. But with presidential elections due later this year, such hostile rumours underscore the extreme difficulty that Mubarak Snr will face if he tries to foist his son on to an unwilling Egypt. It really could be the straw that breaks the pharaoh's back.

Tunisia

This month's "jasmine revolution" appears to have been inspired in part by popular hatred of the avaricious ways of the family of the deposed president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, and in particular, his son-in-law, Sakher al-Materi, married to Ben Ali's daughter, Nesrine. American diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks described the "great wealth and excess" surrounding Materi, symbolised by a large tiger, named Pasha, kept in a cage in their Tunis home. "The opulence with which Materi and Nesrine live and their behaviour make clear why they and other members of Ben Ali's family are disliked and even hated by some Tunisians. The excesses of the family are growing," one US diplomatic cable reported. Materi was widely tipped as successor to Ben Ali before the revolution ended the family's grip on power and sent them running. He fled to Dubai. No one knows what happened to Pasha.

Libya

The country's maverick leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who seized power in a coup d'etat in 1969, is widely reported to be cultivating his son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, as his successor – although there is as yet no indication that the old man is ready to surrender the camel reins. Gadafy Snr, famous for his "little green book", his penchant for pitching a Bedouin tent at international summits, and his bizarre overtures to Italian womanhood, will be a hard act to follow. But Saif has gained a reputation as the contact man for western governments and businesses wanting to do build relations with energy-rich Libya – he reportedly persuaded his dad to scrap Libya's secret WMD programme. Like Britain's Prince Charles, he may have a long wait for his inheritance. He also faces a possible rival to the throne in his brother, Mutassim Gaddafi, Libya's national security adviser, who has an eclectic taste in brown suits.

Yemen

Ahmed Saleh, the son of Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh and head of the Republican Guard, looks well placed to follow his father into the presidential palace in Sana'a. Except the Yemeni public, unconsulted until now, appears deeply unimpressed and may yet scupper any succession plan. Many thousands have spent recent days in large-scale protests demanding the government resign. "We will not accept anything less than the president leaving" said an independent MP, Ahmed Hashid. Saudi Arabia could get crowded at this rate. A rattled Saleh Snr insists he has no intention of passing the baton to his son. That may be just as well. The ways things are going in Yemen, which faces a separatist movement in the south, tribal warfare in the north, and Iranian, Saudi, al-Qaida, and US meddling, there may soon be no country left to rule. Hillary Clinton showed up there last week to help. As if Saleh & Son didn't have enough problems.

Syria

Not for the first time, Syrians appear to have missed the boat by supinely acquiescing in the 2000 transfer of power from their long-serving leaderHafez al-Assad to his London-trained, awkward-looking opthalmologist son, Bashar. The Lion of Damascus, as Hafez was known, cut a powerful and influential figure on the Middle Eastern stage, feared and admired by friends and enemies alike. Bashar has proved a poor substitute, messing up in Lebanon in 2005-6, humiliated repeatedly by the Israelis (who bombed his mystery "nuclear" plant in 2007), and blowing hot and cold over Barack Obama's clumsy attempts to kiss and make up. Bashar is a good reason why dynastic succession is a bad idea. But that does not mean it won't stretch to a third generation. Bashar and his London-born wife had a son in 2001. They named him Hafez, after his grandad.