Tables Have Turned In Sudan

Northern opposition to separation is far less than media reports suggest, with the South now enjoying the virtue of the victim.

By Nesrine Malik

This commentary was published in The Guardian on 7/12/2010

The referendum clouds are beginning to gather and the mood is tense in Khartoum. As southern Sudan prepares for its vote on secession next month, there is confusion and foreboding. The topic dominates conversations and in local media – despite the long history of conflict – southerners are now portrayed as brethren and unity is predicted as the only viable outcome.

As international media coverage intensifies there are some themes emerging: that secession is unavoidable, that the north will never accept it, and that war is inevitable.

On the ground, the chasm between these reports and the reality is significant. Most of them conflate the northern government with the northern populace and opinion on the street. While northerners (themselves an amalgamation of races, tribes and regions, including Darfur) have historically shown a racist and patronising attitude towards the south, the degree of outright opposition to the secession is less than one would expect.

The overwhelming feeling is of resignation, combined with concern. This is not to be confused with a lack of interest. "There is no such thing as 'no one cares'," in the north, an ex-minister told me. "Sudanese care, they're just not sure what about."


There are broadly two reasons for this. The first is the north's political culture. As in many Arab countries, society is highly politicised with strong opinions voiced, but there is little recourse to effecting change. Decision making has been out of the hands of the populace for so long.


The attitude towards the south has always been dictated from above. Those with longer memories can recall the intense propaganda campaign waged by the north in the 1990s. Southerners were painted as infidels, sub-human Zionist collaborators, while "martyrs" from the north were sanctified.


More recently there has been a sudden volte-face. A fast track to reconciliation over the past few months has seen a celebration of southern culture and music, and the north has been subjected to a public media crash course on all things southern.

Despite this new-found concern, there is already de facto separation from the south – which is the second reason for the detached attitudes in the north. There are few tangible links with the south that would sufficiently exercise northerners regarding loss of property, investments or business revenue. There is also little genuine affection for the people of the south. As a recent report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies accurately pointed out, "conversations with Sudan's educated classes, usually rich in texture and nuance, start to lose their smooth edges when the subject matter turns southward. Stereotypes, paternalistic attitudes and casual racism often creep into the analysis".

What you do find instead is a nostalgic, misty-eyed attachment to an idea of a Sudan that never really existed: the largest country in Africa, the "land of a million square miles" – a refrain often echoed in nationalistic speeches. The new shape of Sudan on the map after separation – diminished, dismembered, unfamiliar and awkward – perturbs many.

There is also a residual bitterness and dented pride. War has crippled the country for so long only to end in a relinquishment of the regions most wealthy in natural resources. Ironically, there is a view that the National Congress party (NCP), even though it is desperate to avoid secession, made a tactical error in its eagerness to sign the comprehensive peace agreement without establishing a strategic plan to avoid separation. Those in the north who actively support separation – the likes of the Al-Intibaha contingent – get no thanks from southerners for their attitude appears to be one of racist good riddance.

But the overall result is that there is no real current of opinion against separation but bubbling resentment and uncertainty, exacerbated by an administration that seems just as clueless. I cannot help but feel that the tables have turned. The south now enjoys the virtue of the victim.

As a people, the northerners are worried, not about the split but about their own day of reckoning when they will no longer not be able to use the south, the war, or western designs in the region as a pretext.