By Elena Becatoros
Recep Tyyip Erdogan (left) in Libya
Treated
to a hero's welcome in Egypt last week and flexing his military muscle in the
eastern Mediterranean, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is basking
in growing popularity in an Arab world being transformed by revolution and war.
After years of being cold-shouldered by the club of European countries it has
sought to join, Ankara has been strengthening its role as regional leader while
also unleashing invective against Israel - a move which has rapidly bolstered
its standing in the Muslim world. "Turkey is gaining a surge of popularity
in Arab countries by confronting Israel," said Fadi Hakura, a Turkey
specialist at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. "But whether this
is temporary or longer-lasting remains to be seen.
Basking
in the applause of Arab leaders is not cost free. Turkey and Israel have seen
their lucrative commercial and military alliance, one of the closest in the
region, collapse in the wake of last year's deadly raid by Israeli commandos on
a flotilla attempting to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip. Nine
Turkish activists were killed. Since then, Ankara has appeared increasingly
hard-line, saying the raid - for which Israel has expressed regret but not
apologized - could have been a "cause for war." Erdogan said Monday
his country had shown "patience" in refraining from taking any action
over the incident.
The
raid, which Erdogan described as a "bloody massacre," ignited
unprecedented anger in Turkey and drove the Jewish state's relations with its
most important Muslim ally to their lowest point in six decades. Ankara
suspended military ties with Israel this month, expelled top Israeli diplomats
and pledged to campaign in support of the Palestinians' statehood bid at the
United Nations next week.
Alarmingly,
Erdogan also threatened to send warships to patrol the eastern Mediterranean to
deter potential aggression against any Gaza-bound aid ships in the future. The
announcement stoked concerns over a possible naval confrontation, forcing the
US State Department to bluntly tell Israel and Turkey, both US allies, to
"cool it". The Turkish premier's rhetoric has remained defiant. "Israel
cannot do as it pleases in the Mediterranean," he said during a visit to
Tunisia Thursday.
Erdogan's
popularity in the Arab world skyrocketed when he stormed off the stage at the
World Economic Forum in Davos in 2009 after publicly berating Israel's
President Shimon Peres over the 2008-2009 Gaza war. The 57-year-old Erdogan,
whose Islamic-rooted party has been in power since 2003 and still enjoys strong
support, embarked on a tour of Arab nations this week, visiting Egypt on Monday
and Tuesday before heading to Tunisia on Wednesday and the Libyan capital of
Tripoli on Thursday.
Just
a week before Palestinians are to formally bid for UN recognition as an
independent state, Erdogan said he wanted to cross the Egypt-Gaza border to
visit Palestinians there - although he eventually dropped that plan, without
giving a reason for the change. "I know that my brothers in Gaza are
waiting for me. I too long for Gaza," Erdogan told Al-Jazeera.
"Sooner or later, if God allows it, I will go to Gaza.
Perhaps
more alarming is the rapidly escalating tension in the eastern Mediterranean
over plans by Turkey's longtime rival, Cyprus, to begin exploratory drilling
for oil and gas beneath the seabed near Israel in October. With borders in the
region still not universally recognized, and the expected deployment of
Turkey's warship to the region over the Gaza dispute, the potential for
problems has alarmed many.
The
potential risks of a naval confrontation between Turkey and Cyprus are higher
than those with Israel," said Hakura, the Chatham House analyst. Split
since 1974 between an internationally recognized Greek Cypriot south and a
breakaway Turkish Cypriot north, Cyprus has been one of the main sticking
points in Turkey's bid to join the EU. Turkey does not recognize the island as a
sovereign state and strongly objects to the Greek Cypriot search for mineral
deposits.
Some
argue the saber-rattling over oil exploration could diminish Erdogan's standing
on the world stage. After the flotilla incident, Erdogan was seen as "a
sophisticated chess player" who was improving Turkey's position abroad as
well as his own standing at home, said Meir Javedanfar, an Israel-based Middle
East analyst. "But this changed after his intervention and threats with
regards to the question of the recent gas finds," said Javedanfar.
"He is now being viewed as a populist politician who needs confrontation
to push his agenda.
Despite
the fears sparked by Ankara's muscle-flexing and threats of warships, the
actual risk of a naval confrontation with Israel is quite low. Neither Turkey
nor Israel are interested in such a dramatic escalation of tensions, which
would have profound consequences for regional security and the Middle East
peace process. Moreover, Turkey on Wednesday announced that an early warning
radar will be stationed in Turkey's southeast as part of NATO's missile defense
system capable of countering ballistic missile threats from neighboring Iran,
which sees Israel as an archenemy.
But
Turkey standing up to Israel may be the harbinger of a new era in the Middle
East that could eventually force Israel to review its actions. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's government faces isolation and mounting tensions with
countries like Egypt, Turkey and even the United States. "We are in a
quiet new territory ... I do think that there is a strong sense in Israel of
one has to be more careful with developments," said Daniel Levy, a Middle
East analyst at the Washington-based New America Foundation.
After
initiating this confrontation with the killing of the nine Turkish activists
and refusing to apologize over their deaths, Israel does not want to escalate
tensions further with Turkey," Levy said. "Turkey's stature in the
region was already high and it has more confidence now when it comes to whether
to accept Israel's behavior.
A
further escalation of military tension with Turkey could lead to an unwanted
threat dimension for Israel. Levy said even though Israel's military has
"fantastic hardware," its forces have enough on their hands already.
"Israel does not want to be put to this test," he said. Ankara's rift
with Israel comes as Turkey's yearslong bid to join the European Union has all
but faltered.
Turkey,
however, rejects claims that it is shifting away from the West. A lynchpin of
NATO's southern flank during the Cold War, Ankara is in fact assuming a key
role in the US missile defense shield. In September, Pentagon spokesman Col
Dave Lapan said the US hopes to have the radar deployed there by the end of the
year. Ankara's close military ties with Israel date from more than a decade
ago, when the military wanted access to high-tech Israeli arms in its battle
against Kurdish separatist guerrillas along Turkey's mountainous southeastern
border with Iraq.
Israel
provided Turkey with drones which the country uses to gather intelligence on
Kurdish rebels, and has also modernized Turkish tanks and warplanes, while
Israeli pilots used Turkey's airspace to train. Earlier this week, Turkey
confirmed talks with the US for possible deployment of Predator drones on its
soil after the US leaves Iraq. The US currently shares drone surveillance data
with Ankara to aid its fight against Kurdish rebels who have bases in Iraq. –
AP
This analysis was published in The Kuwait Times on 18/09/2011
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