By Erika Solomon
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh
President
Ali Abdullah Saleh returned to Yemen as abruptly as he left, and whether he
plans to effect a transfer of power or stamp out protests, his country is a
tinderbox edging towards civil war. Protests have simmered for three months as
Yemen was mired in political limbo while Saleh recovered in Saudi Arabia from
an assassination attempt in June, which burned his hands and arms and drove
wooden shards into his torso. But the protesters' attempts to escalate protests
last week set off fierce fighting between loyalist troops and former Saleh
forces that claim to support the opposition.
The
clashes left some 100 protesters dead, and Saleh - sensing an opportunity -
slipped back in the middle of the night, unbeknownst to all but a few security
guards. "This is an ominous sign, returning at a time like this probably
signals he intends to use violence to resolve this. This is dangerous,"
said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a political analyst and co-founder of the Democratic
Awakening Movement. For five days, bursts of explosions have echoed wildly
through this crumbling capital nestled among craggy mountains.
The
fear of snipers lurking on rooftops has left protesters, camped out for months
on a 4-km stretch they have renamed "Change Square", and terrified
residents feeling trapped. The worst-case scenario is that hardliners in
Saleh's ruling party, emboldened by his return, will refuse to go back to the
negotiating table, allowing the prospect of civil war to remain. "His
people will feel that they are in a stronger position and they will refuse to
compromise. Basically this means the political process is dead in the
water," Iryani said.
A
political survivor who has ruled the chaotic Arabian Peninsula country for 33
years, Saleh called for a ceasefire upon his return so that talks can be held,
even though he has backed out three times from a power transfer agreement.
"It is not a new tactic", said Yemen scholar Gregory Johnsen of
Princeton University, who sees Saleh's move as a chance to act as a solidarity
figure with the goal of regaining a grip on power. "He saw a
deteriorating, bloody situation and saw opportunity to swoop in as a national
figure that brings the country together, he did this in 1990s and in 2006 and I
think he's trying to do it again.
But
with conditions so tense in Sanaa, the technique could backfire: "He comes
back at the exact worst moment, this is likely to exacerbate the
situation." His unannounced return prompted even his formerly close ally,
the United States, to urge him to step down, arrange a full transfer of power
and allow Yemen to "move on". "The Yemeni people have suffered
enough and deserve a path towards a better future," White House spokesman
Jay Carney said in New York.
Another
scenario is that Saleh was allowed to return by Saudi leaders, who have long
bankrolled Saleh to help stamp out an active wing of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, so that
he could eventually transfer power to those who would continue to cooperate
with Saudi Arabia. "If there wasn't anything for them (the Saudis) they
wouldn't have let him go," said Ghanem Nuseibeh, an analyst and partner at
Cornerstone Global consultants in London. Oil giant Saudi Arabia, which shares
a porous, 1,460-km border with Yemen, has been a key player in its neighbour's
affairs for decades and is keen to ensure stability to keep al Qaeda at bay.
Riyadh
spearheaded a regional Gulf initiative for a power transfer in Yemen. Diplomats
who have been in Sanaa trying to hammer out a political resolution to stem
bloodshed were shocked by Saleh's return but said there could be a silver
lining. "If he means to negotiate, the hope is that direct talks allow for
less confusion and less gatekeepers getting in the way who block the chance of
political progress," one negotiator said. "There could be good news
in this." Opposition leader Mohammed Al-Mutawakil seconded that view,
saying: "I am optimistic about his return, maybe it will be to bring the
situation into check and sign the Gulf initiative. ...I do not think this is an
escalation.
What
most agree on is that the eight-month long revolt in Yemen has reached a
critical juncture. Asked what Saleh's return meant, one Riyadh-based diplomat
said simply: "It's really bad." If Saleh clings to power, all-out war
could follow and plunge the country into a chaotic battle between tribal
factions of rebels in the north, separatists in the south and Al-Qaeda
militants moving in to exploit mayhem. In Sanaa alone, a three-way standoff
must be resolved. Saleh's son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, who controls the
Revolutionary
Guard, is seen as reluctant to allow his family to relinquish power. Sadeq
Al-Ahmar, the powerful chief of the Hashed tribal federation, has sided with
protesters and his heavily armed tribesmen are clashing with security forces so
fiercely that their shelling has sent residents in his neighbourhood
underground. Diplomats believe he and his brother, business tycoon Hamid
Al-Ahmar, feel sidelined by the political talks and fear losing their share of
Yemen's wealth.
Meanwhile,
defected general Ali Mohsen, whose swing to the protesters was seen as a heavy
blow to Saleh, is suspected of engaging in clashes with state troops last week,
perhaps out of frustration that political talks diminished his role as Yemen's
kingmaker. Whoever prevails will have to satisfy the demands of tens of
thousands of protesters, who have paralysed a central part of Sanaa and vow to
remain camped out in Change Square despite the bloodshed until they believe all
signs of the regime are gone.
Many
are fed up with grinding poverty, where two out of every three live on less
than $2 per day and half the population owns guns. Oil wealth is dwindling and
water is diminishing so quickly many expect Sanaa to be the world's first dry
capital. On Friday, as thousands of pro-government Yemenis set off fireworks
and played songs in the streets, the thousands of protesters camped in Change
Square expressed a sense of bewilderment at what was to come, and about Saleh's
return. "I'm just so surprised," said one of Mohsen's troops, sitting
among the protesters, a rifle slung over his shoulder. "But I guess if he
fires, we'll have to respond." – Reuters
This commentary was published in The Kuwait Times on 25/09/2011
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