By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid
Such
a delay might have been acceptable if the political situation inside Egypt was
stable. Yet can the Egyptian situation bear to wait for one more year, or is it
ready to explode?
Had
the Egyptian revolution been a mere historical replica; in other words an
uprising whereby one clearly defined force leads the revolt and dominates the
political scene, similar to the pattern of most revolutions worldwide - from
the Bolshevist to the Khomeinist, there wouldn’t have been any concerns over
time or a political vacuum. But the Egyptian revolution was ignited by youths
with no leadership; it was a spontaneous movement that managed to oust
Mubarak’s regime.
Now,
after eight months, those who have lost the most from the revolution are the
youths and Mubarak’s affiliates, whereas the military leaders are the primary
beneficiaries. They are the ones who decide upon the government, the courts,
oversee the current political situation, and plan for the future. There are
others who have gained from the revolution, most notably the Muslim
Brotherhood, in addition to a host of minor voices struggling to win a piece of
the cake in the Egyptian political scene.
I
don’t believe that any of the Tahrir Square activists ever imagined that it
would take two years to replace Mubarak. During the revolution, they even
rejected the notion of waiting until September this year [for a change in leadership],
arguing that this date was too far. They were concerned that time was not in
favour of the protesters. This was, and still is, true. Besides threatening the
political stability of the country, a lengthy vacuum is also capable of
changing the political map. As I predicted months ago, the principal losers
today are those who instigated the revolution in the first place. They have now
taken a back seat after leading the revolution and creating conditions for it
to succeed.
Today
the political map indicates that the military leaders will continue to govern
or supervise for long years to come. The most organized parties will be best
able to endure this lengthy period, for we should remember that two years of
hard political grind on a mass level costs a lot; so where will parties find
the funding? In more developed political societies, the state usually covers a
substantial portion of party costs, even for parties that go on to lose the
elections and prove that they only represent a minimal proportion of the
electorate.
-This commentary was published in Asharq al-Awsat on 25/09/2011
-Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla
-Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla
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