By Karin Laub
With
combative speeches at the United Nations, the Palestinian and Israeli leaders
have locked themselves into positions that seem to preclude a resumption of
peace talks and usher in a season of confrontation over a Palestinian state.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will now focus on rallying international
support, his aides say, in hopes of pressuring and isolating Israel and driving
up the political cost of holding on to the lands it occupied in the 1967 war.
Abbas
insisted Saturday that he won't go back to talks without an Israeli settlement
freeze or acceptance of pre-1967 borders as a starting point. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while calling for new talks, gave no sign he's
willing to consider those demands. Instead, he reiterated in interviews with
Israeli TV stations that the Palestinians must recognize Israel as a Jewish
state and that talks would first have to address security arrangements.
Considering
the vast gaps, international mediators did not offer bridging proposals after
the two leaders' speeches, instead simply urging a resumption of talks and a
deal within about a year. But such target dates have little meaning without
real pressure and previous timetables were quickly cast aside.
The
Palestinians, bypassing what they see as pointless talks with the historically
hardliner Netanyahu, will now try to boost their standing, mainly at the UN. On
Friday, Abbas submitted a request for UN membership of a state of Palestine in
the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, areas Israel captured in 1967 and since
populated with half a million settlers living among about 4 million
Palestinians.
Even
though the recognition bid is sure to be derailed - either by insufficient
support or a US veto in the UN Security Council - the Palestinians stand a good
chance of a General Assembly status upgrade that would grant them access to UN
agencies and international courts. The aim is to "pressure Israel through
all UN agencies", said Abbas aide Nabil Shaath. Some Palestinians said the
new strategy is nothing less than a paradigm shift, following two decades in
which the Palestinians pursued a series of bilateral efforts to reach agreement
with a much stronger Israel with the US and other international players
mediating but never imposing terms on either side.
Twice
over the past decade, the negotiators seemed to make serious progress, with
Israel - which had pulled its troops out of Gaza in 2005 - also offering to
give up large chunks of the West Bank and parts of east Jerusalem. In the end,
gaps could not be bridged. "For a long time, the program was just to
negotiate with the occupier," said Mustafa Barghouti, an independent West
Bank politician. "Now we should defy our occupier. We gave them enough
time.
Abbas'
new approach, especially his defiance of the Obama administration, which
opposes the recognition bid, has proven to be hugely popular at home. The
Palestinian leader has clearly enjoyed the sudden adoration from flag-waving
crowds after six years in power with few political achievements and many
setbacks, including the loss of Gaza to the Islamic militant Hamas in 2007.
On
the flight home Saturday, he told reporters he was exhausted after marathon
meetings and intense pressure on him to desist, even from some Arab countries,
but that "this didn't affect our spirits to reach the goal and deliver the
Palestinian message officially". Yet he also cautioned that "we don't
want to push people to have high expectations.
Palestinian
officials acknowledged that there is no detailed plan to move forward, beyond
calling for nonviolent protests against Israel and eventually asking the
General Assembly to admit Palestine as a non-member observer state, with the
implied recognition of the pre-1967 borders. Abbas has not said how he'll handle
his Hamas rivals, who have been criticizing his UN recognition bid because it
would limit a Palestinian state to the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem.
A
power-sharing deal with Hamas, struck in principle earlier this year, is
currently on hold. Reviving an alliance with the militants, who still seek
Israel's destruction, could cost the Palestinian leader international support
at a crucial time. On the other hand, Abbas cannot claim to control a key
Palestinian territory, Gaza, and rocket fire from there on Israel has drawn
reprisals and complicated matters.
In
the quest for recognition, it remains unclear whether the Palestinians have the
required support of at least nine of the 15 Security Council members, which
would trigger a US veto. The Obama administration hopes to get a blocking
majority and avoid a veto, which would hurt its fragile standing in the Arab
world. Palestinian officials have said trying to force the US to use the veto
is part of their new pressure campaign.
Abbas
said Saturday that he expects the Security Council to decide in weeks, not
months. If the Palestinians get a sense that the US is trying to stall a vote
in the Security Council, they might turn to the General Assembly in the
meantime, said Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian UN ambassador. "I think
there is no problem for us to apply for the non-member state while our
application is processed in the Security Council," he said.
Netanyahu's
options of counter-pressure appear limited at the moment. Members of his ruling
coalition have called for punitive steps, from annexing parts of the West Bank
to withholding millions of dollars in monthly tax rebates Israel collects on
behalf of the Palestinians. The Israeli leader has not said how he would
respond. However, retaliation might be counterproductive and only generate more
international sympathy for the Palestinians.
Palestinian
officials have dismissed threats from the US Congress to cut hundreds of
millions of dollars in annual aid, noting that keeping Abbas' West Bank based
Palestinian Authority in place is a key US interest, particularly security
forces that cooperate closely with Israel in preventing attacks by militants.
In their statement calling for a resumption of talks, the Quartet of Mideast
mediators, of which the US is a leading member, called for another conference
to raise aid for Abbas.
While
Abbas was upbeat following the standing ovations he received at the General Assembly,
Netanyahu also seemed pleased with his UN performance and the strong show of US
support. Asked by Israel TV's Channel 10 if the trip went well, he said:
"I think so. I came to stop something that is not good for Israel. To
thwart a maneuver that is problematic diplomatically. To present our truth to
the world that is used to hearing lies and slander about Israel and
Zionism." Netanyahu said he hoped the Palestinians would eventually return
to "serious talks about how to ensure security that is the foundation of
peace and also to recognize us and be rid of these demands of flooding Israel
with refugees.
The
Israeli leader has repeatedly appealed for a resumption of talks without the
conditions required by Abbas, such as a settlement freeze and adopting the
pre-1967 frontiers as a baseline. The Palestinians say they're simply insisting
on parameters adopted by the international community, and that Netanyahu wants
endless talks as a shield for continued settlement building.
In
May, President Barack Obama for the first time laid out his own framework for
talks, saying the pre-1967 frontier should serve as a baseline, angering
Israel. Obama did not repeat those words in his UN speech earlier this week,
apparently trying to avoid controversial statements as the campaign for the
2012 US presidential election kicks into gear.
The
region is now headed into a dangerous year of paralysis, said Israeli analyst
Yossi Alpher. "We are not going to make any progress and this poses the
danger of the opposite, deterioration," he said. "Obama made it clear
that he is not actively sponsoring peace talks or any serious process in the
coming year. Netanyahu has nothing new to offer, and Abbas will get some sort
of recognition of a state, but that's not a state." – AP
This analysis was published in The Kuwait Times on 26/09/2011
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