By Daoud Kuttab
The
Palestinian leadership is experiencing a unique situation. Its insistence on
going to the UN to seek recognition for statehood despite pressure from Israel
and the US is beginning to bear fruit at the local level. Popular support for
President Mahmoud Abbas is on an upwards trajectory as the majority of
Palestinians are pleasantly surprised by their leader’s determination.
Not
that many expect immediate and tangible results from going to the UN or from a
positive declaration itself. However, after years of caving in to every
pressure, the fact that the head of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority is
insisting on a strategic decision seems to be helping the demoralised
Palestinians.
This
positive popular support is also reflected in the position of the various
political factions. Radical PLO factions and Hamas leaders who are constantly
second guessing and questioning the Palestinian leadership’s political
direction are left speechless. They cannot possibly oppose the move at the UN
when the Israelis and the Americans are daily heaping pressure on the
Palestinian leader and over 130 countries are publicly supporting it.
A
number of local and regional leaders who are opposed to the Palestinians’
seeking state recognition at the UN chose not to publicly express their
position. Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who favours a de facto,
rather than a de jure, statehood at the present time, has chosen to keep his
position to himself.
For
a Palestinian leadership that for decades has been used to back away under
pressure, Abbas’ present position is puzzling to many. Some argued that
frustration with years of ineffective bilateral talks led to this inevitable
move. Others believe that the ageing Palestinian leader is serious about not
running in the next elections and wants the UN declaration to be his legacy.
Whatever
the reason, Palestinians are witnessing a revitalised and more popular
leadership than they had in some time. Nevertheless many questions still
remain. Is this the end of a phase or the beginning of one? What will happen
the day after? Is the Palestinian leadership so focused on getting the world to
recognise statehood that it failed to consider a domestic plan to support such
a declaration on the ground?
Abbas’
public declarations have confused many. He has said that after the declaration,
Palestinians will be willing to negotiate. Why abandon talks, get a declaration
of a state and then return to direct talks? One young activist suggested that
after the declaration of statehood, there should be multilateral, and not
bilateral, talks. Palestine should only have indirect talks about how to
disengage the occupation from the newly declared state.
Another
confusing statement by the Palestinian president regards protests. He seems to
be eager to assure the Israelis and the Americans that no third Intifada will
erupt. While he has apparently supported popular and nonviolent protests, it is
clear that Abbas and the Palestinian security would prefer quiet demonstrations
in the Manara Square, in Ramallah, or Nativity Square, in Bethlehem, rather
than any protests (nonviolent or otherwise) that confront the Israeli
occupiers, the illegal settlers and the checkpoints barring Palestinians from
reaching Jerusalem or even other West Bank towns.
The
idea of returning to negotiations and opposing confrontational demonstrations
lets many believe that for the Palestinian president this is a onetime act and
that after the declaration, the Palestinian leadership will return to its usual
obedient mode.
Clearly
the Palestinian move by the UN has hit a raw nerve with the Israelis and has
frustrated Washington. Few Palestinians see anything wrong with the move,
although many are not certain that it will produce tangible results.
While
not having high expectations, the Palestinian public for now is pleased with a
leadership that has found the backbone to stand up to pressure from Israel and
the US. This will certainly help Abbas in the short term. But if the
aftereffects of the UN move are not seen within a reasonable time, the same
public might change its position and turn against its leadership.
This commentary was published in The Jordan Times on 08/09/2011
No comments:
Post a Comment