By Mark John
Niger Prime Minister Brigi Rafini
Long
bedevilled by coups, rebellions and other home-grown troubles, Libya's African
neighbours have been landed with a new set of woes imported fresh from someone
else's war. The arrival in Niger of 32 fleeing Muammar Gaddafi loyalists -
including one of the ousted Libyan leader's sons - in recent days is already a
diplomatic headache for the government. Yet that may just be a precursor to
developments that would scare off foreign investment and further unsettle a
region that is already a base for al Qaeda-linked militants.
Lacking
the military might and technology to secure its northern borders, Niger this
week warned that the Libyan conflict could turn into the next security and
humanitarian crisis to afflict the drought-prone former French colony. "We
need your help and support on both scores," Prime Minister Brigi Rafini
appealed to local ambassadors during talks in the capital Niamey this week.
More than 150,000 people have already fled Libya into the northern part of
Niger, which is mostly desert. Nigeriens and other sub-Saharan Africans have
for years sought work in oil-rich Libya, where average income per head is 20
times Niger's.
Among
them are gangs of local Tuareg nomads who were hired to fight on Gaddafi's side
and which in the past weeks have been spotted returning to their encampments in
northern Niger. While the numbers so far are small, Niamey's main worry is that
a final capitulation of Gaddafi forces will drive thousands more of his Tuareg
fighters back over the border to a country where they have for years led a
string of rebellions.
The
Sahelo-Saharan strip is already insecure, with the activities of terrorists and
drug traffickers. Now we are seeing the return of young men with no source of
employment but who know how to handle weapons," said Ahmet Haidara, a
parliamentarian in Niger's north, told Reuters. "We didn't want this war
but now we have to deal as best we can with the negative consequences,"
said Haidara, who heads a Tuareg committee in contact with Libya's new National
Transitional Council rulers.
Aside
from arms coming back with the Tuaregs, governments in the region believe
trafficked weapons from Libya have fallen into the hands of Al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) allies behind a series of kidnappings of Westerners and
other crime. "Businesses operating in the region will face increased
criminality and insecurity in the coming months as a result of the influx of
arms and armed individuals or groups," forecast Roddy Barclay, Africa
analyst at London-based Control Risks.
That
would not only make humanitarian work tougher, but be bad news for companies
such as Areva, whose uranium mines in the northern town of Arlit supply
France's nuclear sector. The target of an AQIM hostage-taking a year ago, Areva
began returning its expatriate workers to northern Niger in July under tightened
security. Citing the increased measures, an Areva spokesman said the company
was ready for all eventualities.
Neighbouring
Mali, where AQIM is thought still to be holding a group of four French hostages
from the Arlit kidnappings, faces the same set of concerns as Niger. It too is
seeing a recent respite from a rebellion launched on its soil by Tuaregs, whom
one senior military source linked to new signs of a trade in weapons trafficked
from Libya. Others fear an opportunity for AQIM. "The influx of arms into
the region cannot but strengthen AQIM," Burkinabe parliamentarian Melegue
Traore said at talks on regional
security
and other issues in Niamey this week. "It's a golden opportunity for them
- I'm sure the West didn't think it would be like this," he added.
Security
sources in Chad to Libya's southeast cite arrivals of arms in the northern
Tibesti mountains inhabited by Toubou rebels, and say the population of the
Faya-Largeau, the main town of the region, has been swollen by Chadians fleeing
Libya. But their main concern is the return of Darfur rebel leader Khalil
Ibrahim to neighbouring Sudan from his Libyan refuge, upsetting the delicate
peace on the Chad-Sudan border. "Chad, which has a non-aggression pact
with Sudan, has put its troops on alert in case Sudanese rebels try to enter
Chad," said one of the security sources.
Events
in Libya over coming days could well determine how big an impact is seen on
stability in the fragile region. For now, the hand-wringing in Niamey over what
to do with the Gaddafi loyalists - including his son Saadi - highlights the
challenges facing governments which had learned how to live with Gaddafi's mix
of irksome meddling and erratic generosity. Niger has stressed the Libyans are
under surveillance rather than detention, as they are not being sought for
arrest and so are being granted refuge on humanitarian grounds.
That
stance might appease the local politicians who have sampled Gaddafi's
generosity, but would be tested if Libya's new leaders and the West push for
the fugitives to be handed over - particularly given Niger's reliance on
foreign aid. While many African states have only begrudgingly recognised
Libya's National Transitional Council, whose members are largely unknown south
of the Sahara, some analysts argue they will fare better after Gaddafi's fall.
With
the Gaddafi regime no longer playing regional governments off against each
other, co-operation on issues such as border control, counter-narcotics and the
creation of a regional task-force should face less disruption," argued
Control Risks' Barclay. – Reuters
This analysis was published in
The Kuwait Times on 15/09/2011
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