Attempts To Revive The Al-Assad Regime

By Tariq Alhomayed

There are regional models designed to revive the regime of Bashar al-Assad, rather than save the Syrians. Some of these models have already failed, while others are still trying with all their strength to the degree that it has become blatant, but this is a good thing.

There is the Turkish model which has tried to appear friendly to both the people and the regime in Syria, where it has sought to inject the wretched Baathist body with the blood of the Muslim Brotherhood, in an attempt to revive the al-Assad regime by placing a Brotherhood member in an influential position, such as the Prime Minister. However, this attempt failed for several reasons, the most important of which is that the al-Assad regime will not accept reforms. Furthermore, the magnitude of crimes committed against the Syrians would make the Muslim Brotherhood partners in blood with the al-Assad regime, and this would be political suicide for the Brotherhood.

There is also the Arab model, which does not have a consensus but is represented by several endeavors. First we can recall the Saudi monarch’s speech, which continues to place the highest ceiling in defense of the Syrians. As the Arab attempt is represented by several models, there have also been attempts to neutralize the al-Assad regime away from Iran. This is like trying to make the weather in the Arabian Peninsula like the weather in London, and therefore this attempt failed and will continue to fail as long as al-Assad rules Syria. Another Arab model has attempted to revive the al-Assad regime by trying to ward off Iran altogether. Here it is suffice to consider the reasons behind the failure of the latest Syrian opposition conference in Doha, the principal reason being the attempt to pressure participants in the conference to adopt the Arab initiative towards Syria, an initiative which the al-Assad regime acts as if it does not exist, and deals with the Secretary General of the Arab League like he is completely irrelevant!

Well, what’s left? What remains, of course, is the Iranian model. Tehran has attempted to save al-Assad on the ground, through financial support for the regime and providing it with equipment and security expertise, including the famous Israeli plan of dividing cities into security quadrants. This is what has happened today in Damascus and other cities. According to a statement by the Iranian President, Iran today is also seeking to call for an Islamic conference in Tehran, attended by influential Arab countries, in order to discuss the Syrian crisis. The conference is also intended to be the nucleus of any other emergency that happens in the Arab countries in the future!

This means that Iran is not only stoking flames, but it has also revealed the extent of its own plight. The Iranian attempt, just like the Arab attempts outlined above, means that everyone has become certain of the end of the al-Assad regime, no matter how they try to revive it. This also means that Iran wants to reduce the size of its losses from its grave political situation in the region, due to the fragmentation of its ally, al-Assad. It is doing so by trying to save the regime through an Islamic partnership, i.e. Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Tehran hopes to either save al-Assad or appear friendly to the Syrian people. This is reminiscent of how Iran morally compensated for the painful political slap it received after the intervention of the Joint Peninsula Shield Force in Bahrain. The Islamic conference has also been established to open a new window for future Iranian interference in the Middle East, in the event of the fall of the al-Assad regime, and Iran’s hand being cut off from the region.

The above reflects the failed attempts to revive the al-Assad regime, and all are now convinced, including Iran, of the inevitability that it will come to an end. Therefore, it is necessary now for the Arabs to move on to the next basic and required stage, namely freezing the membership of Syria in the Arab League, and demanding that the Security Council act to protect the defenseless Syrians from the al-Assad regime.

-This commentary was published in Asharq al-Awsat on 11/09/2011
-Tariq Alhomayed is the editor-in-chief of Asharq al-Awsat