Turkey Won't Let Syria Become Another Iraq

Arab kingdoms and the US have good reasons for wanting Turkey to lead the campaign against Assad's regime

By Fadwa al-Hatem

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad holds talks with Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister. Photograph: Hakan Goktepe/AFP/Getty Images

The beginning of the end for the First World War came not on the killing fields of Europe but with the conquest of Damascus. TE Lawrence, the young British officer who was a pivotal figure in the first Arab revolt, recognised the importance of Damascus to the Turks. He believed that capturing this historic city would lead to the collapse of the Ottoman empire, and eventually the defeat of the Central Powers.

Today, Damascus is no less important to her neighbour in the north. That is why Turkey is heading the latest efforts to pressurise the Assad regime against killing Syrian civilians.

On Tuesday Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of its "zero-problems" foreign policy, visited Damascus to tell President Assad that Turkey's patience had run out and (unofficially of course) to deliver a message from the US that Assad must send his soldiers back to their barracks immediately.

Davutoglu has been extremely sketchy with the details of the six-hour series of meetings with Assad and his team, but it is clear that the Syrian regime has rebuffed him. Almost immediately after the meeting, and while Davutoglu was still flying back to Ankara, the Syrian regime announced that it rejected any foreign interference and would continue its campaign against what it calls "armed terrorist groups".

But this is not going to be the last we see from Turkey regarding Syria; far from it.

It is no coincidence that only a day or so after the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced his patience with Assad was "running thin", Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah delivered his astonishingly scathing criticism of the Syrian regime.

It is also no coincidence that, shortly afterwards, we saw the Saudi, Kuwaiti, and Bahraini ambassadors recalled home from Damascus "for consultations".

What this shows is that the Arab kingdoms (and the US) have unofficially nominated Turkey to lead the campaign against Assad's regime. But while the motivations of the Arab states – cutting off Iran's hand in the Arab world – are clear, those driving Turkey's interests are much more complex and interesting.

Although Turkey annexed the Hatay (Alexandretta) province from Syria in 1938, and Assad's father almost went to war with Turkey in 1998, relations in recent years have warmed considerably. And even though Assad's Alawite-dominated regime might be expected to detest Sunnis, a confluence of interests has led to the strengthening of economic, political and cultural ties with the (Sunni Islamist) Turkish AKP.

Trade has boosted the fortunes of communities on both sides of the border while Turkish dramas (dubbed into Syrian Arabic) have, in recent years, taken the Arab world by storm.

The relationship goes both ways, however, and while Syria can and does act as Turkey's gateway to the Arab world, Turkey is also Syria's door to Europe and the west.

Geographically, the two countries share Turkey's longest border (approximately 800km) and the support of Kurdish guerrilla groups by Syria was originally one of the biggest points of tension between the two countries.

It is no fluke that Damascus was historically so important to the Ottomans, and it is clear today that Turkey is not going to sit back and watch Assad turn Syria, such an important neighbour, into another Iraq.

What will happen next is anybody's guess, but it is clear that the international support that Assad enjoyed from key allies such as Russia now appears uncertain as his power wanes. Having made few friends among his Arab neighbours, displeasing Turkey, a member of Nato and, more important, a country that is popular among ordinary Syrians, could be the straw that breaks the lion's back.

-This commentary was published in The Guardian on 10/08/2011
- Fadwa al-Hatem is the pen-name of a Syrian citizen who currently lives in Britain