tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65665354129114864582024-03-19T04:40:59.219-07:00Middle East SpectatorThis blog is intended to provide the reader with important world news with an emphasis on Middle East and North Africa. It will publish news, analyses, comments, and opinions concerning those two regions. However, We welcome any comments, news or opinions which are related to their countries. You can visit too www.asswak-alarab.com for more information.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.comBlogger2961125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-42811956109464522652016-09-18T06:58:00.003-07:002016-09-18T06:58:44.609-07:00His Grip Still Secure, Bashar al-Assad Smiles as Syria Burns<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">By <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/by/ben-hubbard" title="More Articles by BEN HUBBARD"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">BEN HUBBARD</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span class="caption-text" style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: nyt-cheltenham-sh, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 13px;">President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, center, touring the <br />desolation of Daraya on 12 September, after government<br />forces seized the town from rebel control.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: nyt-cheltenham-sh, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 13px;"> </span><span class="credit" itemprop="copyrightHolder" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; display: inline-block; font-family: nyt-cheltenham-sh, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 1rem;"><span class="visually-hidden" style="border: 0px; clip: rect(0px 0px 0px 0px); height: 1px; margin: -1px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; position: absolute; width: 1px;">Credit</span>Syrian Arab News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">BEIRUT, Lebanon — On
the day after his 51st birthday,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/bashar_al_assad/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Bashar Al-Assad."><span style="color: #326891;">Bashar
al-Assad</span></a>, the president of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Syria."><span style="color: #326891;">Syria</span></a>,
took a victory lap through the dusty streets of a destroyed and empty rebel
town that his forces had starved into submission.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="344" data-total-count="566" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Smiling,
with his shirt open at the collar, he led officials in dark suits past deserted
shops and bombed-out buildings before telling a reporter that — despite<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/10/world/middleeast/syria-john-kerry-ceasefire-deal-russia.html"><span style="color: #326891;">a cease-fire</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>announced
by the United States and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russiaandtheformersovietunion/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Russia and the Post-Soviet Nations."><span style="color: #326891;">Russia</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>—
he was committed “to taking back all areas from the terrorists.” When he says
terrorists, he means all who oppose him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="201" data-total-count="767" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">More
than five years into the conflict that has shattered his country, displaced
half its population and killed hundreds of thousands of people, Mr. Assad
denies any responsibility for the destruction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="131" data-total-count="898" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Instead,
he presents himself as a reasonable head of state and the sole unifier who can
end the war and reconcile Syria’s people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="192" data-total-count="1090" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">That
insistence, which he has clung to for years even as his forces hit civilians
with gas attacks and barrel bombs, is a major impediment to sustaining a
cease-fire, let alone ending the war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="337" data-total-count="1427" id="story-continues-1" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The new cease-fire, less than a week old, is<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/world/middleeast/syria-ceasefire-eid-al-adha.html?ref=world"><span style="color: #326891;">already tenuous</span></a>. On Saturday, the United
States<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/18/world/middleeast/us-airstrike-syrian-troops-isis-russia.html"><span style="color: #326891;">acknowledged carrying out an airstrike</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>that killed Syrian government troops
in eastern Syria. Attacks have resumed across the country, and aid meant for
besieged residents of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, is still stuck at the
Turkish border.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="213" data-total-count="1640" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Mr.
Assad has become a central paradox of the war: He is secure and kept in place
by foreign backers as his country splinters, although few see the war ending
and Syria being put back together as long as he stays.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Although he remains a
pariah to the West, and scores of militant groups continue to fight to oust
him, even his opponents acknowledge that he has navigated his way out of the
immediate threats to his rule, making the question of his fate an intractable
dilemma.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="118" data-total-count="2019" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The
rebels are unlikely to stop fighting as long as the man they blame for the
majority of the war’s deaths remains.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="210" data-total-count="2229" style="font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.625rem; max-width: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But
fear of what might emerge if Mr. Assad is ousted has deterred many Syrians from
joining the insurrection and may have helped prevent countries like the United
States from acting more forcefully against him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The result has been a crushing stalemate. Mr. Assad’s standing as leader
of Syria is diminished — and yet stable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“The problem is that he cannot win, and at the same time he is not
losing,” said Samir Altaqi, the director of the <a href="http://www.orientresearchcentre.com/en/"><span style="color: #326891;">Orient
Research Center</span></a> in Dubai. “But at the end of the day, what is
left of Syria? He is still the leader, but he lost the state.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Indeed, recent events give the impression that Mr. Assad has succeeded
in muddling through, without being held accountable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">August came and went with little mention of the anniversary of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/27/world/middleeast/blasts-in-the-night-a-smell-and-a-flood-of-syrian-victims.html"><span style="color: #326891;">the chemical attacks</span></a> by his forces that
killed more than 1,000 people in 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Turkey, a key backer of the rebels, <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ef6fa94895854d96abb111ccc11986d0/turkey-assad-can-be-part-transition-syria"><span style="color: #326891;">dropped its demand</span></a> that he leave power
immediately, and the United States has stopped calling for his removal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">And the day before Mr. Assad’s birthday on Sept. 11, for which his
supporters created <a href="http://weloveyoubashar.com/#av_section_1"><span style="color: #326891;">a fawning website</span></a>, the United States and
Russia announced a new cease-fire agreement with surprising benefits for Mr.
Assad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Besides making no mention of his political future, the agreement brought
together one of his greatest foes, the United States, with one of his greatest
allies, Russia, to bomb the jihadists who threaten his rule.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Years ago, few assumed that Mr. Assad would join the ranks of the
world’s bloodiest dictators.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Self-effacing and educated as an ophthalmologist, he had not planned on
a political career but was summoned from London by his father and predecessor,
Hafez Assad, when the heir apparent, Bashar’s elder brother, Bassel, died in a
car accident in 1994.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">After Bashar succeeded his father as president in 2000, many hoped he
would reform the country. But those hopes dwindled, evaporating entirely with
the start of the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, when Mr. Assad sought to quell
initially peaceful protests with overwhelming violence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The conflict escalated from there.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Despite widespread opposition to his rule, a combination of factors has
enabled Mr. Assad to persevere, analysts say. His foes have remained divided
and have failed to convince many Syrians, especially religious minorities, that
they would protect their rights or run the country better than Mr. Assad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">As continuous battles have ground down his forces, Mr. Assad has been
the beneficiary of significant military support from Iran, Russia and Lebanon’s
<a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/hezbollah/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Hezbollah"><span style="color: #326891;">Hezbollah</span></a> —
aid much more significant than what the United States and its allies have given
the rebels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">And the rise of jihadist organizations like the Islamic State and the
Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, recently renamed the Levant Conquest Front, have
led many Syrians and some of Mr. Assad’s international opponents to conclude
that he is the lesser evil. While he may be brutal to his people, the thinking
goes, he does not directly threaten the West.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">His victory tour on Monday showcased the desolation of the town of
Daraya, a longtime rebel stronghold whose remaining residents <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/world/middleeast/syria-daraya-falls-symbol-rebellion.html"><span style="color: #326891;">were bused out last month</span></a> after an
extended siege by government forces.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In videos released by the Syrian government, Mr. Assad <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHzSDHgUXSo"><span style="color: #326891;">arrived
in town</span></a>driving his own car, a silver Subaru; fidgeted though a
sermon praising him for protecting Syria; and performed prayers for the Muslim
Eid al-Adha holiday.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Then, as martial music played, the camera jumped between <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYGtYHpzJG8"><span style="color: #326891;">images
of the area’s destruction</span></a> and scenes of Mr. Assad leading a
determined entourage through town.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">A reporter stopped him for questions, and Mr. Assad spoke in soft tones
about reconciliation and reconstruction. He mocked his foes as “rented
revolutionaries,” a dig at their foreign backing, and laughed at his turn of
phrase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">His entourage got the cue and laughed as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">For many Syrians, the message was clear.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“He is a man who wanted to show all Syrians that this would be their
luck if they opposed him,” said Murhaf Jouejati, the chairman of t<a href="http://tda-sy.org/en/"><span style="color: #326891;">he Day After</span></a>organization,
which aims to prepare Syrians for a democratic future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Malik Rifai, an antigovernment activist from Daraya now displaced to
northern Syria, said he felt numb watching Mr. Assad walk the streets of his
empty hometown, but shared a video of a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue0HNv7rUs8&feature=youtu.be"><span style="color: #326891;">flock of birds</span></a> that had flown over as
residents were leaving. He interpreted it as a sign that they would return, he
said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“Those birds were a deep message from heaven, whereas Bashar’s presence
was just a parade, showing the muscles of a weak person,” Mr. Rifai said in an
online chat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Mr. Assad’s dark suits and calm tones have given him a public image more
sophisticated than that of other Arab autocrats like Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of
Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq, who often brandished weapons and gave
thundering speeches, threatening their enemies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“He’s a different kind of bloodthirsty dictator, the kind who shops
online on his iPad,” said Nadim Houry, who oversaw the work of <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/human_rights_watch/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Human Rights Watch"><span style="color: #326891;">Human
Rights Watch</span></a> on Syria for a decade. “He’s sort of Arab dictator
2.0.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Colonel Qaddafi and Mr. Hussein were both killed after foreign
interventions aimed at removing them from power — a fate Mr. Assad appears to
have escaped, even though the death toll on his watch has exceeded that of his
more colorful colleagues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">His perseverance has frustrated those who feel Mr. Assad should be held
accountable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“The fact that many leaders are considering or willing to deal with him
today as if he has not gassed his own people or tortured thousands to death is
an indictment of the current policy environment across the world,” Mr. Houry
said. “There is a level of cynicism, a lack of ambition.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But analysts note many weaknesses in Mr. Assad’s position.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">After years of war, he holds less than half of Syria’s territory and his
forces are depleted, making it hard for them to seize and hold new areas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Military aid from Iran and Hezbollah on the ground and from Russia in
the skies has held off rebel advances, but they have also made him more
dependent on foreign powers looking out for their own interests.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Diplomats who track Syria say that while Iran remains committed to Mr.
Assad, the Russians could negotiate him away if their interests were protected.
And signs of Russian displeasure with Mr. Assad have occasionally surfaced.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In June, Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, visited Syria
apparently without informing Mr. Assad that he was coming — a major
embarrassment for a president who speaks often of national sovereignty.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“A pleasant surprise!” a beaming Mr. Assad said in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fi7nHi9ps8k"><span style="color: #326891;">video</span></a> of
the meeting. “I did not know that you were coming in person.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But Mr. Assad still has significant support in areas he controls,
including among many Syrians who want the war to end and see no alternative to
his rule.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“If God gives him life, I see that he’ll be president until Syria comes
back the way that it was,” said Bouchra Al-Khalil, a Lebanese lawyer who meets
regularly with Syrian officials and knows Mr. Assad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">She dismissed the idea that the violence of Mr. Assad’s government would
make Syrians reject him after the war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“People love their homeland,” she said. “All that hate and aggression
will go away in the end</span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.<br />* </span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">This article was published first by the NewYork
Times on 17/09/2016</span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-85942025380007793972016-09-13T00:41:00.007-07:002016-09-13T01:03:51.557-07:00Can Anyone Stop the Syrian War?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A new
cease-fire brokered by Washington and Moscow just went into effect. But there’s
a long list of ways the deal could fall apart.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By Randa
Slim*<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Can Anyone Stop the Syrian War? " height="155" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/gettyimages-4625185301.jpg" width="320" /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">As</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="line-height: 107%;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 107%;">the sun set in Syria on Monday, the country’s citizens — and the
United States and Russia — all hoped the guns of war would fall silent. After
marathon negotiations, Moscow and Washington reached a deal in the morning
hours on Saturday to reinstate the failed “cessation of hostilities” negotiated
last February, enable humanitarian assistance to reach besieged areas in Syria,
and pave the way for U.S.-Russian military cooperation targeting the Islamic
State and al Qaeda affiliates in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">The deal will begin with a 48-hour cease-fire, starting Monday
evening. If it holds, the United States and Russia will begin jointly targeting
the Islamic State and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham — the group formerly known as the
Nusra Front — fulfilling a long-standing Russian demand.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">The next step would be to use the agreement as a
springboard for reaching a negotiated settlement to the conflict, by
relaunching the stalled U.N.-led negotiations in Geneva. The U.N. special envoy
for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, will consult with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
on Sept. 21 about setting a date for the next round of intra-Syrian talks.
Although the Syrian government declared its support for the deal, President
Bashar al-Assad vowed on Monday that he will keep fighting the “terrorists” to reclaim
all of Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Skepticism abounds that this deal will succeed.
Many argue that at best it will provide a short reprieve for Syrians living
under daily bombardment by regime planes and suffering from starvation under
sieges imposed by the Syrian army and pro-regime militias. A short-term
improvement, however, is not nothing: As a survivor of the 15-year Lebanese
civil war — during which hundreds of cease-fire deals were negotiated, only to
be violated shortly thereafter — I can attest that even temporary reprieves
mean a lot to people living in fear for their lives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">The deal’s success or failure hinges on the United
States’ and Russia’s ability to force their allies on the ground to abide by
its terms. Moscow’s record in sticking to its commitments and forcing the
Assad regime to live up to international agreements, however, has been feeble.
Russian bombing raids have abetted Assad’s ground forces laying siege to
opposition areas, and the Kremlin recently rejected a U.N. <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2016_738.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">report</span></a> that found the Syrian regime used chemical weapons
in violation of Security Council resolutions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Beyond the trust gap, there is the simple fact that
Washington and Moscow do not agree on the principal driver of the Syrian
conflict. For Washington, the Assad regime is the central reason the war has
spiraled out of control — it has irrevocably lost its legitimacy, U.S.
officials believe, and can no longer restore the status quo. For Moscow, it is
the terrorist groups sowing chaos in the region that deserve the lion’s share
of the blame. These different diagnoses lead to different prescriptions:
Washington prioritizes a diplomatic process that will transition Syria’s
leadership away from Assad, while for Moscow there can be no end to the
conflict until terrorist groups are denied a safe haven and state institutions,
especially the military, are in control of security.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Despite these important disagreements, the United
States and Russia have good reason to keep pursuing coordination in Syria.
Moscow remains the only actor in the pro-regime coalition that — with a
political agreement in place — could live with a new leadership in Damascus. It
has the political and military capacity to act on that belief if it decides to
do so. If Washington believes that the only way out of the Syrian conflict is a
managed political transition, it has no option but to continue testing Moscow’s
interest in a leadership change in Damascus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Russia rejects the concept of ousting Assad not
because it believes its interests in Syria are best served by keeping him in
place, but because it is not confident it can secure an orderly transition.
Since 2012, I have participated in multilateral and bilateral Track II
Dialogues on the Syrian conflict — to date, the principal area of disagreement
is the status of Assad. In conversations with Russian interlocutors who are
close to Moscow’s political and military decision-making circles, it is the
question of who would replace him — and how to achieve this transition without
it devolving into chaos — that tops their list of concerns. Play a word
association game with them and the phrase “managed transition in Syria”
conjures up three words: Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Russian officials believe that any attempt at
leadership change in Damascus through a military intervention would fail and
lead to chaos: à la Iraq post-2003 and Libya in 2011. They argue that Middle
Eastern societies cannot be democratized and that outside forces, especially
the United States, are the least capable agents to effectuate democratic change
in the region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Instead, they argue that the best-case scenario is
to arrange a power-sharing arrangement between Syria’s different political and
societal components — including Assad. Moscow believes the Syrian military can,
if given enough time, engineer and guarantee this arrangement. One preferred
scenario for the Russian generals is the installation of a military council to
oversee a transition period in Syria, akin to the February 2011 takeover by the
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in Egypt. Early in the Syrian conflict,
this scenario was also floated in an internal report by the Gulf Research
Center, a Saudi think tank.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">There are at least three problems with this
scenario. First, Moscow still does not see a role for the Free Syrian Army in
this military council and has not sufficiently thought through how it can force
the armed opposition groups to accept this proposal. Second, the Syrian army —
battered by five years of war and increasingly eclipsed by the foreign militias
fighting on Assad’s side — is in no condition to play the central role in a
political transition that Moscow envisions. Third, the Assad family has been
ruthless in eliminating anyone they suspect of being a contender for power. It
will be very hard to entice Syrian generals to get on board with this idea —
they would be risking their lives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">The cost of the Russian military intervention in
Syria, in both lives and rubles, has so far been manageable. However, as the
campaign reaches its one-year mark, officials in Moscow are increasingly
concerned about the mission timeline. They have been down that path before in
Afghanistan, and they do not want to find themselves again fighting an endless
war on behalf of an unreliable local ally. They worry that as time passes, the
cost-benefit ledger in Syria will no longer be in their favor. Moscow also
understands that absent an international “buy-in” for a credible political
transition plan, funding will not be available for any post-conflict
reconstruction of Syria. And Russia, which is currently laboring under
international sanctions, is not interested in footing the reconstruction bill
itself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">To complicate matters, Moscow and Washington are
far from the only international players in Syria.</span><br />
<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are also prosecuting
their own proxy wars there and have higher stakes in how the conflict unfolds
than either the United States or Russia. Getting these countries on board
is critical to any effort to de-escalate the Syrian war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Turkey is increasingly becoming the indispensable
player in the Syrian conflict. Ankara now sees the conflict in Syria through a
domestic lens: It is more about the Kurds and less about Assad. For Ankara, a
Syrian Kurdish fiefdom on its border under the control of the People’s
Protection Units (YPG), the military wing of the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic
Union Party, has been a long-standing red line. Turkey has long considered the
YPG a terrorist organization and fears such a fiefdom in northern Syria would
stir up greater unrest among its own Kurdish minority. Ankara and Tehran, which
have long been on opposite sides of this conflict, can build common ground on
the basis of their shared rejection of Kurdish independence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">There is also some convergence on how the major
international actors in Syria view Assad’s position going forward. Turkey, the
United States, and Russia all agree that he can play some role during the
transition period — even as they disagree over the parameters of this role and
what happens to him and his small entourage after the transition. Despite <a href="http://www.riyadhvision.com.sa/2016/09/10/saudi-has-similar-stance-with-turkey-on-region/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">recent statements</span></a> by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir
that Riyadh’s and Ankara’s stances “fully coincide with each other,” Assad’s
participation during the transition period remains a point of contention
between the two countries. Still, Riyadh is willing to let Turkey play a
leading role in Syria partly because it trusts Ankara more than either
Washington or Moscow and partly because Syria is now a distant third priority
for a Saudi leadership that is increasingly consumed by its own domestic
economic woes and the war in Yemen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Although Turkey has announced its support for the
recent U.S.-Russian deal, keeping it on board with the agreement will be a
primary challenge for U.S. diplomats. Ankara will not be in favor of attacks
that target its Syrian armed proxies, some of which have tactical alliances
with Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. These ties are based on military priorities and not
ideological affinities. The extremists have played a key role in trying to
break the siege of rebel-held Aleppo, and many more moderate groups are loath
to reject any force that could help them achieve that goal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Friction with Turkey is just one of the many ways
that this deal could fall apart. In the short term, so many different players
could bring about its failure: Assad could not live up to the terms of the
agreement, Saudi Arabia could play the spoiler if it feels its rebel proxies
are being targeted, or Iran could undermine the deal if it fears that
U.S.-Russian military cooperation is strengthening the rebel factions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Still, we are at a stage where international
stakeholders are closer to an understanding on Syria than they were a year ago.
This is partly the result of multiple rounds of painstaking negotiations over
the past four years and partly due to evolving political dynamics, which have
created new common ground among warring parties. Nobody should expect the
regime in Damascus to change: Time and again, Bashar al-Assad has proved that
he will not transition himself out of power. The question is whether or not
this agreement can push Assad’s patrons to seriously entertain his exit from
the political scene — and thus take a giant step forward to ending this war.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">Randa Slim is director of
the Initiative for Track II Dialogues at the Middle East Institute and a
non-resident fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">This article was first
published in Foreign Policy on 12/09/2016</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-39091475692790528002016-08-29T00:41:00.002-07:002016-08-29T00:41:24.161-07:00Putin Doubles Down in Syria<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: #020000; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">By Stephen Blank*<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Vladimir Putin and Bashar al Assad (Source: kremlin.ru)" src="https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Vladimir_Putin_and_Bashar_al-Assad_2015-10-21-400x400.jpg" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 12px; line-height: 22px; text-align: center;">Vladimir Putin and Bashar al Assad (Source: kremlin.ru)</span></div>
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<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">A year ago, President Obama
opined that Russian intervention in Syria would turn into a quagmire. One year
later, however, Russia is expanding and consolidating its positions and goals
in Syria. Bashar Assad’s rule looks more secure than ever, buttressed by
Russian weapons (including chemical weapons), intelligence, diplomatic support,
and money. Moreover far from reducing its military footprint, Russia is
expanding it. The Duma is about to ratify agreements essentially giving Russia
permanent air bases like Hmeymim air base and Tartus. Thus Moscow, for the
first time in over forty years, now has permanent bases in the Middle East,
both in Syria and in Cyprus. Moreover, it is an open secret that Moscow would
like to obtain a base at Alexandria like the one it had in the 1970s. In August
2016 Moscow revealed that it is now operating out of the Hamadan air base in
Iran. However, within days the Iranian government pulled the plug on Russia,
criticizing its inconsiderate and ungentlemanly attitude. Iranian Defense
Minister Hossein Dehghan also noted that Moscow acts like and wants to show
that it is a great power.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref1" style="transition: all 0.5s;"></a><a href="http://www.fpri.org/article/2016/08/putin-doubles-syria/#_ftn1"><span style="color: #27428c;">[1]</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Obviously this episode cries out for
explanation but it should not be taken as indicating that Moscow has now
descended into a quagmire or, in the Russian phrase, stepped on a rake.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">While this episode strongly suggests that Russo-Iranian ties are
more fragile than Moscow believed, it does not disprove the fact that both
sides have hitherto collaborated quite well up to this point in Syria and that
they share a common objective of preserving the Assad regime in power. Iran
apparently could not stand the publicity about this base and was upset that
Moscow had “blown its cover” by announcing it was flying missions form Hamadan.
Evidently Tehran would have preferred not to open itself up to charges from the
entire Middle East (and presumably Washington) or to the domestic opposition
within Iran about letting foreign powers have a military base in Iran from
which they could launch sorties with impunity. Indeed, the presence of
this base was surprising for the following reasons. Moscow’s acquisition of the
right to use an Iranian air base is the first time the Iranian regime has
allowed any foreign military presence in Iran, something that contravenes the
fundamental message of the Iranian revolution of 1979 that is the regime’s
claim to legitimacy. It also represents a violation of UN Resolution 2231
forbidding foreign bases in Iran — passed as part of the 2015 deal to prevent
Iranian nuclearization. It may well be the case – though we cannot be certain –
that once the implications of this fact became clear to Tehran, notably that it
jeopardized the continuation of the agreement with the 5+1 of 2015 regarding
Iranian nuclearization and could lead to serious economic harm that second
thoughts about having this base prevailed. Beyond that, this base, especially
if it had continued, would have extended Moscow’s rapprochement with Tehran and
the two states’ military cooperation beyond arms sales. As it is, Iran has not
only now acquired the formidable S-300 surface to air anti-pair missile, it is
now negotiating for Sukhoi fighter jets. And that negotiation appears to be
unaffected by the decision to suspend Russian use of the base.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Russia’s and Iran’s violation of UN resolutions in this context
are not totally unexpected, since Iran’s ongoing missile program is also a
violation of Resolution 2231. The Russian use of incendiary weapons against
civilians in Syria violates the Chemical Weapons Convention going back to 1925.
Thus both Iran and Russia have ignored agreements while Washington and the
international community look the other way, and are basically saying, we will
do as we please whether you like it or not and you either cannot or will not do
anything about it. So while this episode suggests that Irano-Russian ties
are more problematic than Moscow might have imagined, there is no reason to see
here a rupture of those ties or a divide in the fundamental identity of Russian
and Iranian interests regarding Syria. Nor is this an obstacle to these two
governments’ further cooperation on Syria and other issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">None of this should surprise anyone. Since Catherine the Great,
Moscow has sought bases in the Mediterranean, and even the Adriatic Sea. Thus
Catherine’s forces occupied Beirut for 18 months in 1772-74, and a generation
later Paul I went to war on behalf of Malta, undoubtedly with similar
objectives in mind. Throughout the nineteenth century Russian encroachments on
the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans were a fundamental aspect of European
diplomacy. In World War I, in the allied negotiations around bringing Italy
into the war on the side of the Entente, Russia sought to gain a naval base
through Serbia in the Adriatic. Stalin sought bases and colonies in the
Mediterranean after World War II; Brezhnev obtained and lost the base at
Alexandria. And now Putin has obtained the bases in Cyprus and Syria and has
sought a naval base at Bar in Montenegro on the Adriatic and a land base at Nis
in Serbia. Indeed, Moscow has consistently sought bases for what is now its
Mediterranean Eskadra (Squadron) – even when it did not have the capacity to
operate or utilize them – in order to lay down a marker, stake a claim, and
force others to recognize it as a great power with a sphere of influence in the
Mediterranean. These bases would also challenge NATO’s Mediterranean presence,
guarantee Russian freedom of maneuver in the Black Sea, and encircle Turkey, a
centuries-old Russian objective.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But the loss of the base at Hamadan does upset Russian plans.
Had it been able to preserve that base, Russia would then have been able to
project power constantly throughout the Levant, (the Eastern Mediterranean) and
the Middle East, and force its way to an equal status with Washington in
determining future security outcomes there. Apart from its logistical and
tactical advantages in having a base in Iran from which to pursue Syrian
targets and objectives, Moscow would also gain from a base in Iran because it
could then project Russian air power all the way out to the Gulf where the US
Fifth Fleet is stationed. Acquiring such a capability is a long-standing
Russian objective; so Iran’s decision does strike at Russia’s larger ambitions.
In 2014, Moscow indicated its desire, even well in advance of its actual naval
capabilities, to project power into the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, so this base
could have been a down payment on that ambition as well. Meanwhile Washington
keeps appealing for Russian cooperation in Syria only for Russia to break every
agreement and intensify its support for Assad to the point of using chemical
weapons in Aleppo, if not elsewhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">While Russia will undertake the occasional bombing of ISIS, it
clearly is more interested in equal status with Washington in an anti-terrorist
coalition against Assad’s opponents, not Washington’s. And this is the case
even though ISIS clearly presents a threat to Russia by its own admission and
has evidently now carried out some small-scale terrorist operations in Russia,
even beyond the North Caucasus. Therefore we can expect that Moscow will use
its ever-stronger position in Syria and the Middle East to coerce Assad’s
opponents still further into preserving his state if not his leadership. It
will also likely demand that Washington support Assad’s remaining in power, or
at least his regime’s remaining in power. Moscow appears wedded to Assad
personally, especially as Putin has told him that Russia would not let him
down. So while there may be interludes where the attack on Aleppo is stopped
for a while ostensibly for humanitarian reasons, it is most likely that the
overall battle will continue on Assad’s and the Russians’ part to vanquish the
insurgents and force them to accept his rule over most, if not all of Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">We may also expect broader
diplomatic initiatives by Russia to extend its weapons and economic connections
to Iran, and not only regarding the Middle East. The revelations of a
Russian base in Iran suggest as well that Moscow is looking for other bases in
the greater Middle East even if this episode has had an unfortunate ending for
Russia. In this context we should remember that, since “power projection
activities are an input into the world order,” Russian force deployments into
the greater Middle East and economic-political actions to gain access,
influence and power there represent competitive and profound attempts at
engendering a long-term restructuring of the regional strategic order.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref2" style="transition: all 0.5s;"></a><a href="http://www.fpri.org/article/2016/08/putin-doubles-syria/#_ftn2"><span style="color: #27428c;">[2]</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>And that region is not just the Middle
East.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The recent tripartite summit with Azerbaijan and Iran clearly
signals an effort to involve Iran in the latest of Russia’s transcontinental
trade and transportation initiatives of a railway from Russia to Iran thorough
Azerbaijan. Moscow will also undoubtedly continue to pursue expanded arms sales
to Iran and endeavor to persuade Iran and other Gulf states, including Saudi
Arabia, to raise energy prices by curtailing production or by some other means.
Russia’s position in Syria will undoubtedly be used as leverage to induce
Riyadh to accept such ideas although there are clearly no guarantees of
success. We can also expect Russian efforts to insert it into schemes for a
Gulf security bloc and to sell more weapons to Middle Eastern clients (e.g.,
Egypt and Algeria). Indeed, past experience shows that energy deals, arms
sales, and the quest for Russian military bases are all intimately linked as
part of a grand design. Russia will continue, for example, building an
anti-access area denial air and ship capability for its Mediterranean Squadron
at its bases in Syria, Cyprus, and in the Caucasus as it already is doing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Finally, Moscow has successfully forced Turkish President
Erdogan to come to St. Petersburg and fawn all over Putin, and not just for
supporting him against the insurgents who tried to oust him in a coup on July
15, 2016. Erdogan now says Turkey will implement the Turkstream energy pipeline,
Akkuyu nuclear plant, and engage in military-technical cooperation with Russia.
Indeed, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has offered many recent statements
attacking NATO, and all but saying that Turkey will buy weapons in the future
from Russia among other producers. Both sides are also establishing a mechanism
for ongoing military-intelligence coordination, supposedly against ISIS. Apart
from this Russo-Turkish cooperation against ISIS there are signs that Turkey
might have to agree to a “decent interval” for Assad to stay in power before
leaving as part of a projected settlement. Yet Putin has certainly not stopped
supporting the Turkish or Syrian Kurds whom Ankara suspects of having committed
recent terrorist attacks in Turkey. Neither is Russia going to be deterred from
supporting Assad, and it will only lift its economic sanctions on Turkey dating
back to the end of 2015 only gradually. Meanwhile Turkish officials have more
than once hinted at offering Moscow access to Incirlik Air Base. Therefore it
is hardly surprising that there are mounting reports in the media sounding
alarms that Turkey is in fact compromising its membership in NATO as Erdogan
ruthlessly moves to stamp out all opposition and re-establish an
authoritarian-cum-Islamist state in Turkey rather on the model of what Putin
has done in Russia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 11.25pt 0cm; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #020000; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Even with losing the base in Iran Russia has achieved virtually
all of its strategic aims in Syria including some it had not originally sought
or expected. In addition we also see the evisceration of the pro-Western
Kemalist Turkey, the expansion of Russian military power throughout the Middle
East – even if that expansion has hit a temporary bump in the road – and the
continuing disarray – to put it mildly – of U.S. policy. Indeed, insofar as Syria
is concerned, it is not inaccurate to say that Washington neither has a
strategy, nor a coherent policy, or any idea how to use the instruments of
power at its disposal to achieve anything in Syria. One year after intervening,
Putin – rather than entrapping himself in a quagmire – has achieved his avowed
political and military objectives: coordinating with virtually every Middle
Eastern state, exposing the fatuousness of U.S. policy, forcing Washington to
accept its leadership in Syria, and establishing permanent and expanding
military lodgments, all at a very low and affordable cost. Indeed, it is the
U.S. that appears to be in a quagmire in Syria, not Russia. Given this unbroken
and consistent series of successes for Putin in the Middle East, the prospect
of a Russian quagmire seems low.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="color: #020000; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 12.0pt;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> <b> * </b></span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="color: #020000; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This article
was published first by Foreign Policy Research Institute on August 23, 2016<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-indent: -18.0pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span style="color: #020000; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 12.0pt;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><em><span style="border: 1pt none; color: #020000; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign
Policy Research institute as well as at the American Foreign Policy Council.</span></em></b><span style="color: #020000; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-23952955173554334042016-07-30T04:07:00.000-07:002016-07-30T04:07:02.474-07:00The Right Target For The U.S. In Syria: Hezbollah<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">By<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span itemprop="name" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Daniel Serwer</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b><span itemprop="name" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Image result for hezbollah" height="203" 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" width="320" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Hezbollah is the right target of U.S. in Syria</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The military situation
in Syria has turned against the U.S.-supported opposition over the past year,
due mainly to Russian intervention. Now, the failed coup in Turkey and subsequent
crackdown there stand to reduce the capabilities of a key U.S. ally. Without
some rebalancing now in favor of the opposition to Syrian dictator Bashar
al-Assad, the prospects for a satisfactory negotiated political transition are
dim.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In a dissenting internal memo last month, 51 State
Department diplomats <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-memo-us-diplomats-urge-more-aggressive-stance-on-syria/2016/06/16/ff30596a-3431-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html" title="www.washingtonpost.com"><span style="color: #1955a5; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">advocated attacks</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>on Syrian government forces to end
their aggression against the country’s civilian population, alter the military
balance and bring about a negotiated political solution. President Obama has
focused instead on fighting terrorism in Syria, but U.S. targets are limited to
Sunni extremists such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">There is also a Shiite terrorist organization in
Syria: Lebanon-based Hezbollah. It should not be immune.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Hezbollah was founded to resist the Israeli
occupation of Lebanon in the early 1980s and takes credit for the eventual
Israeli withdrawal from that country. Tightly allied with and supported by
Iran, it has become the dominant political force among Shiites in Lebanon,
where it not only participates in national politics but also runs its own
security forces and provides social services to Shiite populations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Covertly since 2012, and overtly since 2013,
Hezbollah has deployed forces inside Syria, where its thousands of fighters are
aligned with Assad’s army and mainly Shiite and Alawite militias against mainly
Sunni forces that Assad regards as terrorists. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps pays Hezbollah’s bills and provides its command-and-control operations.
Hezbollah forces have been particularly effective along the border with
Lebanon, which provides it with strategic depth and supply lines.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940ciF" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Hezbollah is a major
factor in the military balance in Syria. Along with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-legislature-authorizes-putin-to-use-military-force-in-syria/2015/09/30/f069f752-6749-11e5-9ef3-fde182507eac_story.html" title="www.washingtonpost.com"><span style="color: #1955a5; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Russian air intervention</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>begun last September and the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah’s fighters have enabled Assad to make progress
against his opponents, especially those associated with the Free Syrian Army
fighters backed by the United States. That progress has hardened Assad’s
negotiating stance and blocked the U.N. search for a political solution. Assad
is winning, and he sees no reason to accept a transition away from his rule.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940ciF" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">A shift in the military balance is essential to
ending the war, which is what Washington says it wants. But Obama has
steadfastly refused to go to war against the Syrian, Iranian or Russian
government. Even if he wants to, it is doubtful he has authorization from
Congress to do so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But Hezbollah is a
non-state actor. It is also a U.S.-designated terrorist group that has murdered
Americans, among many others. Most Republicans and Democrats would applaud an
attack on Hezbollah, even if some in both parties would bemoan a move that
suggested widening commitments overseas.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Washington could
inform Tehran, Moscow and Beirut that Hezbollah should withdraw from Syria by a
certain date or the United States would target any of its troops attacking
non-extremist opposition forces in and around Aleppo and elsewhere. If
Hezbollah failed to withdraw, the United States would then need to be ready to
attack as soon as the ultimatum expired.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940G0E" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Hezbollah’s withdrawal
or U.S. targeting of Hezbollah would send a strong but still limited message to
the Syrian opposition and its allies in Turkey and the Persian Gulf: We are
prepared to attack Shiite as well as Sunni terrorists, but it’s up to you to
take advantage of the opportunity and come to the negotiating table ready to
reach a serious political settlement. It would also send a strong but likewise
limited message to Iran and Russia: We will not continue to tolerate your
intervention in Syria without responding. The time for a political settlement
is now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940G0E" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940aaH" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">How would the players
in Syria react? Hezbollah would likely try to strike at accessible U.S. assets
or citizens in neighboring countries, most likely in Lebanon or Iraq. It might
also launch rockets into Israel. The Islamic State, which uses Hezbollah’s
involvement in Syria as a recruiting tool, would be undermined. Russia and Iran
could in theory up the ante, escalating their involvement in Syria, but in
practice they both appear to be close to the limit of lives and treasure they
are willing or able to expend there. Assad would be outraged and promise
revenge, but the Syrian government is even more clearly at the limit of its
capabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940aaH" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940xYH" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Meanwhile, the
non-extremist Syrian opposition would applaud and press hard against the
territory where Hezbollah is deployed. Gulf states would likewise welcome the
U.S. action and redouble their efforts to support the opposition. Israel knows
all too well how to react to Hezbollah attacks in order to re-establish
deterrence. Turkey might complain that the United States was not also acting
against the U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters whom Ankara regards as terrorists, but
the Turks would still benefit from any consequent military progress against
Assad by non-Kurdish forces.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" id="U1100311330940xYH" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In short, U.S.
targeting of Hezbollah would mostly please and embolden Washington’s friends
and discomfit its antagonists. It would also reassert U.S. commitment to
fighting terrorism of all sorts, renew Washington’s commitment to holding
Hezbollah accountable, hasten an end to the Syrian civil war and make a
political settlement more likely. That is not a bad balance of risks and
benefits.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><b>* The writer is a
professor and director of the conflict management program at the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies, as well as a scholar at the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.mei.edu/" shape="rect" style="box-sizing: border-box; zoom: 1;" title="www.mei.edu"><span style="color: #1955a5; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Middle East
Institute</span></a>.</b></span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><b>* This opinion was published first by Washington Post on 27/07/2016</b></span></i></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-15796715519468502622016-07-28T05:30:00.005-07:002016-07-28T05:30:55.367-07:00Obama's Exit Calculus On The Peace Process<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By <span class="post-author"><span style="background: white;">Sarah Yerkes</span>*</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></span></b>
<img alt="U.S. President Barack Obama (R) greets Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as leaders gathered to deliver a joint statement on Middle East Peace talks in the East Room of the White House in Washington September 1, 2010. REUTERS/Jason Reed" height="179" src="http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/images/o/oa%20oe/obama_netanyahu_abbas001/obama_netanyahu_abbas001_16x9.jpg?w=230" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-small;">US President Obama with President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister <b style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 22.4px;">Benjamin</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 22.4px;"> </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 22.4px;">Netanyahu</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></span></b></div>
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</div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 18.0pt; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">As the Republican and Democratic
parties convene in Cleveland and Philadelphia, we expect to see numerous signs
of the deepening polarization that has dominated this campaign season. One
issue that has traditionally shared bipartisan support is how the United States
should approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, this year both
parties have shifted their positions farther from the center and from past<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.democrats.org/party-platform" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Democratic</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/2012GOPPlatform.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Republican</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>platforms. This swing impacts whether
the Obama administration, which has devoted significant time and resources to
the negotiations, will issue a parting statement on the conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In Cleveland last week the Republican party<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL%5b1%5d-ben_1468872234.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">adopted a platform</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>entirely dropping the two-state
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a move that puts the party
further to the right than either<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aipac.org/learn/issues/issue-display?issueid=%7b8DB2B03A-3F5F-4A92-BED7-3CFDE9C87609%7d" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">AIPAC</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>or<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/coalition-with-liberman-will-still-back-two-state-solution-israeli-official-says/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu</span></a>. The platform states, “We reject the false notion that
Israel is an occupier and specifically recognize that the Boycott, Divestment,
and Sanctions Movement (BDS) is anti-Semitic in nature and seeks to destroy
Israel.” This language, combined with Republican nominee Donald Trump’s
apparent disinterest in the conflict, makes it unlikely a Trump administration
would prioritize Israeli-Palestinian issues or make any serious attempt at
negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Conversely, this year’s<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.demconvention.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Democratic-Party-Platform-7.21.16-no-lines.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Democratic Party platform</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>reaffirmed the United States
government’s long-standing commitment to seeking a two-state solution in the
region. But the party took a notably progressive turn, highlighting both the
importance of Israel’s Jewish and democratic future and Palestinian freedom “to
govern themselves in their own viable state, in peace and dignity.” The<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/29/inside-the-democratic-partys-showdown-over-israel-palestine/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">contentious fight over the
Democratic Party language</span></a>, combined with Democratic nominee Hillary
Clinton’s (and her potential First Gentleman’s) passion for this issue reveals
an intent by a future Clinton administration to reinvigorate negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">As President Obama and Secretary Kerry consider their final
months in office, one item on the agenda is whether to push<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/world/middleeast/obama-seeks-a-way-to-save-israeli-palestinian-gains.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">a last-ditch effort on the issue</span></a>—either
by releasing some sort of Obama or Kerry Parameters based on the outcome of the
failed 2013-14 negotiations or by supporting one of the international
initiatives such as the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/world/middleeast/french-plan-for-middle-east-peace-talks-hits-a-familiar-snag.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">French Initiative</span></a>, the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/middle-east-quartet-faults-israeli-settlement-activity-palestinian-violence/2016/07/01/da499280-3f8d-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Quartet Report</span></a>, or the
regional<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-netanyahu-idUSKCN0YL1WQ" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">Arab Peace Initiative</span></a>,
now spearheaded by Egyptian<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/11/world/middleeast/egypt-sameh-shoukry-israel-palestinians.html?_r=0" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20558a;">President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Likely to drive the administration’s calculus are the Democratic
and Republican nominees and their political motives on the U.S. led peace
process. The time to watch for a potential move, therefore, is between November
and January. Given the administration’s support for its own party’s nominee, it
is in Obama’s interest to keep the peace process on life support—but without
resuscitating it—through January. Publicly, but somewhat unenthusiastically,
supporting the various international initiatives and allowing other states and
international organizations to sit in the driver’s seat sets a future Democratic
administration up with the best chance of success.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Lessons from getting Israeli and Palestinian leaders to the
table over the years include the wisdom to refrain from yelling about past
progress in negotiations. Publicly revealing how far Netanyahu and Abbas were
willing to go in 2014 would only harm the next administration’s efforts at
resuming negotiations. Keeping the “Kerry Framework” in the administration’s
pocket allows a Clinton administration to take ownership of the peace process
should she be elected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Alternatively, if Trump is elected, the Obama administration
would have nothing to lose in revealing the fruits of its efforts in 2013-14.
The administration would have little concern for derailing a possible Trump
attempt (which is not likely to take place in any event) and could determine
that releasing some sort of Obama or Kerry Parameters would shed a positive
light on the administration’s legacy. Furthermore, should the Republican Party
win the White House, neither Obama nor Kerry is likely to care about the damage
that releasing such a document might do to either Netanyahu or Abbas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 19.5pt;">
<span style="color: #343434; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The party conventions have solidified the deep divides—both
between and within the parties—regarding the U.S. approach to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict this campaign season. This divide, combined with a
renewed international focus on the conflict, virtually guarantees that the
administration will keep the conflict on the back burner before November. The
election, therefore, will not only determine our next president but also the
fate of the “Obama/Kerry Parameters”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><em><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #666666;">·</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span> * </span></span></em><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><em><b><span style="background: white; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; line-height: 107%;">Note:
Ariella Plachta, an intern with the Center for Middle East Policy, contributed
to this post.</span></b></em><em><b><span style="background: white; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></em></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Sarah Yerkes is a visiting fellow in
the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="&lid={4DC53AD8-689C-4664-BB83-27886C4DB2"></a><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/about/centers/middle-east-policy"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Center for Middle East Policy</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">and a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs
fellow. She is a former member of the State Department’s policy planning staff,
where she focused on North Africa. Previously, she was a foreign affairs
officer in the State’s Department’s Office of Israel and Palestinian Affairs.</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<noindex style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><span id="content_0_ctl00_primary_0_lblDivider">
</span></noindex><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> * </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><em><b><span style="background: white; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; line-height: 107%;">This
post originally appeared on the</span></b></em><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></span><em><b><span style="background: white; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.matzavblog.com/2016/07/obamas-exiting-calculus-on-the-peace-process/" target="_blank">Israel Policy Forum’s blog, Matzav</a>
on</span></b></em><span class="divider"><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">|</span></b></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; orphans: auto; text-align: start; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> </span></span></b></span><span class="post-date-time"><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><noindex style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><span content="2016-07-27" itemprop="datePublished">July 27, 2016</span></noindex></span></b></span><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-2380221624519220232016-07-27T03:38:00.003-07:002016-07-27T03:38:39.858-07:00The Misconceptions of Israeli-Gulf Cooperation<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="background: #fbfaf8; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By <a href="http://www.mei.edu/profile/geoffrey-aronson"><span style="color: windowtext;">Geoffrey
Aronson</span></a>*<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="background: #fbfaf8; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<img height="181" src="https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/styles/medium/public/publications/TurkiAmidrorScreen_0.jpg?itok=Mgz3iw-Y" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Prince Turki al-Faisal with Yaakov Amidror</span><br />
<br /></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1e1e1e; line-height: 16.5pt;">Much has been made, particularly
by Israelis, of the expanding horizons for collaboration between the Jewish
state and Arab Gulf states. Israeli ministers and business people lose no
opportunity to tout Israel’s interest in expanding ties of all sorts in a
region viewed as a valuable market for Israeli industry and an intelligence
gold mine.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Meetings that once were held in the dark are now on public
display. Relations that were once conducted solely by intelligence officials
now feature diplomats and the formal <a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-open-first-official-diplomatic-mission-uae-2004151501" style="outline: 0px;"><b><span style="color: #092c57;">establishment</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>of relations with countries such as
the U.A.E. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In a notable development, Saudi Arabia won<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-it-gave-written-consent-to-saudi-island-transfer/" style="outline: 0px;"><b><span style="color: #092c57;">key recognition</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>from Israel—and Egypt and the United
States—as a strategic partner in regional security in the Straits of Tiran.
Such achievements expose not only the alluring prospects of such a dialogue,
but also its enduring, critical limitations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The nascent coalition linking Israel with the Gulf was born as a
coalition of countries that are united by their common failure to dissuade
Washington from its path of rapprochement with Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Washington and Tehran just celebrated the one-year anniversary
of the J.C.P.O.A., which remains the signature foreign policy achievement of
the Obama administration. Saudis and Israelis looking to roll it back must
contend with the fact that, in an era when the Middle East is shaking under
their feet, the Iran deal represents a relative rock of stability and
policy achievement unmatched elsewhere in U.S. efforts in the region.
Washington’s relations with Tehran may not blossom, but they will be difficult
to reverse—a fact that critically weakens the foundations of underlying
Israeli-Gulf cooperation and limits the effectiveness of an ‘alliance’ based
upon undermining the principal diplomatic and strategic achievement of your
indispensable, superpower ally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">It is also true that one need only scratch the surface to reveal
vital differences in Israeli and Saudi views on Iran itself. Israeli bluster
aside, considered Israeli opinion and policy is far more sanguine about Iran
than is the case in Riyadh.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Even at the height of concerns about an Israeli military strike
against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Israel’s security establishment
successfully tamed the wilder, undisciplined instincts of many in Israel’s
political class. The generals have long understood the vitality of Israel’s
strategic superiority and are prepared to<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/08/israel-won-bomb-iran-150828055312791.html" style="outline: 0px;"><b><span style="color: #092c57;">accommodate</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>an American-led deal with Tehran in a
fashion that contradicts visceral Saudi opposition to the mullahs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Such differences are apparent in other arenas as well. This is
certainly the case concerning Syria, where the prevailing Israeli view is
sympathetic to the Assad regime. As a consequence of its understandings
with Russia, agreed-upon limits have been set to Iranian and Hezbollah
deployments—a display of realpolitik toward the Damascus regime that Riyadh is
loathe to adopt. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">For Israel, its problems with Iran are of relatively recent
vintage. In contrast, it retains a historic and strategic interest in limiting
Arab power—an interest that stands in opposition to declared Arab objectives.
Israel’s newfound Arab friends must be ready to address the unexpected,
destabilizing pressures that will result from an Israel freed from any concern
about constraining Arab power—in Palestine and Lebanon in particular.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In Lebanon, Israel and Gulf states have a shared antipathy
toward Hezbollah, but there is no interest in Arab support for an Israeli
military campaign in Lebanon or more improbably Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Similar considerations illustrate the limits of Arab
understanding of an aggressive Israeli policy toward Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Israel’s response to the Arab Peace Initiative is also an
instructive case in point.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Long ignored by Israeli leaders—Ehud Olmert did not even bother
to read it—Israel’s strategy is to pocket the historic promise of peace with
the Arab and Islamic worlds as simply a basis for further discussion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">More broadly, Israel has turned the historic formula at the
heart of A.P.I.—peace with Palestine is a gateway to rapprochement with the
Arab world—on its head. “The Arab Peace Initiative,”<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-tries-to-turn-arab-peace-initiative-on-its-head/" style="outline: 0px;"><b><span style="color: #092c57;">explained</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal in a
public discussion with former National Security director Yaakov Amidror, “is
the formula that can bring us together. But the general [Amidror] sees
otherwise. He wants us to start cooperating with Israel, and do whatever is
done in that journey, and forget about the occupation of Palestine and various
other issues that deal with the daily occurrences that are taking place on the
ground in Palestine, whether it is expansion of Israeli settlements in the West
Bank, whether it is the roadblocks — all the issues that you are all aware of.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Jordan is another useful example of both the advantages and
built-in shortcomings of such an Arab strategy. Egypt and Jordan enjoy
relations with Israel based upon signed peace treaties. Yet even this
achievement has not been sufficient to shield either country from dramatic
challenges posed by Israel.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; line-height: 16.5pt;">There has been an indirect Israeli security umbrella over Jordan
since Black September 1970. This protection, however, has failed to pay
dividends for Jordan on the Palestine front. Indeed, in terms of national
security threats, the prospect of a Palestinian retreat to Jordan—pushed by
Israeli policy unfettered by Arab or international pressure—is a constant
source of concern to Jordanian officials. And among Israelis, there is a long
and widely held view that considers a Palestinian takeover of Jordan and the
demise of the Hashemites to be an Israeli interest, and only a matter of time.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">With Egypt, there are many indications that relations with
Israel have never been closer. This honeymoon is fueled, however, by
unprecedented national security challenges suffered by Egypt in Sinai.
Israel’s unilateral retreat from Gaza in 2005, its serial wars there since, and
the attendant effort to force Egypt to assume the burden of Gaza’s welfare,
illustrate the limits of their cooperation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 18pt 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1e1e1e; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">A long, long road has been travelled since the famous ‘three
no’s of Khartoum’—no recognition, no negotiations, no peace—in the aftermath of
the June 1967 war. The iron wall separating Israel from its Arab neighbors is
indeed showing cracks, but the prospects for a turn from confrontation to
cooperation is still hampered by real differences of interests and priorities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">* Geoffrey
Aronson writes about Middle East affairs. He consults with a variety of public
and private institutions dealing with regional political, security, and
development issues. He has advised the World Bank on Israel’s disengagement and
has worked for the European Union Coordinating Office for the Palestinian
Police Support mission to the West Bank and Gaza.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><b><span style="background: #fbfaf8; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-288500745293772092016-07-26T06:16:00.002-07:002016-07-26T06:18:39.180-07:00Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi: A Syrian Hezbollah Formation<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">By
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi*<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<img src="https://www.meforum.org/pics/large/2869.jpg" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small;">Fighters posing with the flag of Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi. </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
The Syrian civil war has seen the
rise of a number of formations that promote the idea of building a native
Syrian <i>Muqawama Islamiya</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>('Islamic
Resistance') and Hezbollah. Examples include<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aymennjawad.org/17665/quwat-al-ridha-syrian-hezbollah"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Quwat al-Ridha</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>(recruiting mainly from Shi'a in the
Homs area), the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aymennjawad.org/15484/the-national-ideological-resistance-in-syria"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">National Ideological Resistance</span></a> (based in
Tartous/Masyaf area), the <a href="http://www.meforum.org/5520/liwa-sayyida-ruqayya-shia-damascus"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Ja'afari Force<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></a>(recruiting
mainly from Damascene Shi'a) and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://jihadintel.meforum.org/group/230/al-ghalibun"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">al-Ghalibun</span></a>.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi (the Imam Mahdi Brigade), referring to the
twelfth Shi'i Imam, is another group along these lines. For comparison, the
National Ideological Resistance also has the label Jaysh al-Imam al-Mahdi (The
Imam Mahdi Army).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi appears to have at least two sub-components:
the Imam Ali Battalion and the Special Operations al-Hadi Battalion. The
al-Hadi Battalion<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://justpaste.it/alhadisquadrons"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">claims
at least two squadrons</span></a>: the first led by "al-Saffah" and
the second led by "Abu Ali Karar."<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
The information available on Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi through social
media is patchy at best, but I was able to speak to the commander of the Imam
Ali Battalion, who goes by the name of al-Hajj Waleed and is from Ba'albek in
the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
According to al-Hajj Waleed (who is
a member of Hezbollah), Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi was set up two years ago by
Hezbollah and has recruits from all of Syria.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
Of course, this latter assertion is a fairly standard rhetorical
line. Private Facebook accounts run by those associated with Liwa al-Imam
al-Mahdi largely point to origins in western Syria.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
The commander added that the group has participated in a number of
battles, including Deraa, Quneitra, Ghouta, Aleppo and the Ithiriya-Raqqa
route. Some of these operations (e.g.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://justpaste.it/liwamahdisouthaleppo"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">fighting
in south Aleppo countryside</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and
positions on the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://justpaste.it/liwamahdiithiriya"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Ithiriya
hills</span></a>) have been mentioned on social media.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
In total, Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi's contribution to the fighting in
Syria seems similar in scale to that of the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aymennjawad.org/18873/the-martyrs-of-liwa-al-sayyida-ruqayya"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Ja'afari Force<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></a>and
the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.aymennjawad.org/15499/interview-with-sayyid-hashim-muhammad-ali"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">National Ideological Resistance</span></a>. Al-Hajj
Waleed gave his toll of killed ('martyrs') and wounded at 25 and 55
respectively.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
Thus, the military capabilities of these groups should not be
exaggerated, but it is apparent how Hezbollah is trying to project influence
into Syria through the creation of multiple formations and brands in order to
recruit Syrians.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<br /></div>
<b style="background-color: white; line-height: 16.9pt;"><i>* Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a
research fellow at Middle East Forum's<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://jihadintel.meforum.org/"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Jihad Intel</span></a>
project.</i></b><br />
<div style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-48011312612195558852016-07-20T06:20:00.002-07:002016-07-20T06:20:45.372-07:00Turkey's Schizophrenic Civil War<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 7.5pt 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">By Burak Bekdil*<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<img src="https://www.meforum.org/pics/large/2849.jpg" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<b style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Turkey's July 15 coup, as cartoonist Assad Binakhahi suggests, was a gift for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<b style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.5px;"><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">It is amazing that the Crescent and
Star never ceases to shock with the most unexpected insanity. The capacity to
shock is a feature most observed at times of war. And Turkey is at war – a
schizophrenic civil war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The May 1960 coup was a conventional
coup d'état but, like July 15, was outside the chain of command. So it was
simply called a coup d'état.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">March 1971 was called a "soft
coup." September 1980 was a conventional coup – this time inside the chain
of command. Some called it the "people's coup" after more than 90
percent of Turks approved its constitution and generals as their leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turkey had a "post-modern
coup" in February 1997 and an "e-coup" (in reference to the
anti-government, pro-secularist memorandum posted on the military's website) in
April 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">If history will have to name the failed
coup of July 15 the best way to recall it would be as the "absurd
coup." The events of July 15 looked less like a coup and more like a
Turkish opera buffa, a tragic one though, with the curtain closing with more
than 200 people getting killed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Fortunately, even an absurd coup can
give an unruly nation a temporary sigh of unity. Pro- and anti-president Turks
seem to have united - which is great - probably until they start firing at each
other again, which is not so great.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">With or without unity against any
military intervention in the democratic system, absurd or not, the great
Turkish divide is there and will probably deepen, exposing Turkey's hybrid
democracy to further risks of "road accidents" of this or that kind.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turkey's "war of religion"
will not disappear just because the pro- and anti-president forces of the
country have united against a coup attempt. It is a war of religion between the
adherents of the same sect of the same religion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">It was not without a reason why the
anti-coup crowds that bravely stood against the troops and their commanders did
not mostly chant pro-democracy slogans when they took to the streets but rather
passionately chanted "Allah-u Akbar" (God is the greatest).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">They were there not to defend democracy
in the word's liberal meaning. They were there to defend the man whom they view
as the guardian of their faith, hence their readiness to kill or die, or to
lynch the pro-coup troops, and a journalist who was just photographing the
scene. Willing lynchers who defend democracy chanting Islamist slogans? Nice
one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Whether the perpetrators belong to the
clandestine Gülenist terror organization or were a bizarre coalition of
secularist and Gülenist officers, they were simply moronic thugs in military
uniforms. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 16.9pt;">Speaking to a "pro-democracy" crowd of fans who interrupted
his speech with the slogan "we want the death penalty [back],"
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that the Gülenists had been secretly – and
illegally - trying to capture the state over the past 40 years. And now they
finally staged a coup.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The president was probably right. But
he did not explain why he allied with them during the 37.5 years of the
Gülenist campaign to capture the state – until he and the Gülenists broke up in
December 2013. Remember his famous complaint: "Whatever they [Gülenists]
wanted, we gave them."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">This is the last act in the
hundreds-of-years-long opera buffa of in-house fighting between various
Islamist factions, not just Turkish. Despite the bloodshed and tragic scenes,
like in any other Turkish opera buffa, it often can be amusing, too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Newswires dispatched a story that said
Saudi King Salman congratulated President Erdoğan for the return to
"normality" – normality here must mean the defeat of undemocratic forces
and return to the democratic regime. Hybrid or not, Turkey at least features a
ballot-box (head-count) democracy. Let's hope one day King Salman's Kingdom too
returns to normality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="background: white; line-height: 16.9pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;">Burak
Bekdil is an Ankara-based columnist for the Turkish newspaper</span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"> Hürriyet
Daily News.</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="background: white; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;">This
article was published first by <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-schizophrenic-civil-war.aspx?pageID=449&nID=101820&NewsCatID=398" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2a69a1;">Hürriyet Daily News</span></a> on </span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;">July 20,
2016</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-87487958010075795222016-07-18T02:00:00.002-07:002016-07-18T02:00:51.432-07:00Islamic Finance Expanding Its Footprint In Oman<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Recent regulations on
sukuk (Islamic bonds) are helping drive growth in Oman’s Islamic banking
sector, with sharia-compliant lenders gaining ground</span></b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<img alt="Image result for Islamic finance expanding its footprint in Oman" height="207" src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQOebbnv1LJUQDRtPKejtrGE6-Q33utKFZn0biY_U7_8EAAgRru" width="320" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Growth of Islamic banking is far outstripping that of
the conventional banking segment with Islamic banking assets up more than 62%
year-on-year (y-o-y) at the end of March, according to a report issued by the
Central Bank of Oman (CBO) in mid-May.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">New rules released by the Capital Market Authority
(CMA) in April regarding the issuance of sukuk should further broaden the
segment’s base by encouraging corporate issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Rise in Islamic
banking</span></b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Total assets held by Islamic banks and the Islamic
banking windows of conventional lenders in March amounted to OR2.5bn ($6.5bn),
compared to OR1.5bn ($3.9bn) one year earlier, according to the CBO.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">This took the Islamic banking’s market share from
5.1% of the financial system’s overall assets in 2015 to 7.8% by March 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Financing to the public and private sector is also on
the rise, with sharia-compliant entities having extended OR1.93bn ($5bn) worth
of financing as of end-March, up 58% over the OR1.2bn ($3.1bn) recorded in
March of last year. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Growth was also strong on a month-on-month basis,
with assets held by Islamic banks and windows up OR100m ($260m) over February,
deposits expanding by OR90m ($234m) and financing rising by OR80m ($208m).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">For their part, sukuk are expected to play an
important role in the country’s Islamic financial markets as they offer an
alternate means of fundraising for local companies, according to Abdulaziz Al
Balushi, group CEO of Ominvest, an Oman-based investment company.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“Growth in total sukuk issuance is driven by a number
factors, including: fiscal deficits led by low oil prices – necessitating
government borrowing in the local and international markets, corporates seeking
alternative funding options in the wake of tighter liquidity and Islamic
financial institutions’ desire to grow their financing books,” he told OBG.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The growing penetration of sharia-compliant finance
is in line with a forecast made by ratings agency Moody’s late last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In its November outlook on the Omani financial
sector, Moody’s predicted the Islamic banking segment would continue to gain
traction, with Islamic assets to account for between 10% and 12% of total
banking assets within the next two years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The sector will benefit from expansion in new lending
and through the conversion of customers from conventional to Islamic banking
services, the report said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Conventional
competition</span></b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In contrast with the performance of the Islamic
segment of the market, assets of conventional commercial banks rose by 9.1%
y-o-y to the end of March to OR28.6bn ($74.3bn).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">While still a strong result, the pace of expansion of
the Islamic segment indicates growing demand for sharia-compliant products in
the marketplace.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Oman’s Islamic banking sector has two dedicated
sharia-compliant banks, Bank Nizwa and alizz islamic bank, which both began
commercial operations in 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In addition, six of Oman’s seven domestic
conventional banks have opened Islamic banking windows, giving them access to
the growing market for sharia-compliant products.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">New regulations to
spur corporate sukuk</span></b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Looking ahead, the country’s Islamic financial sector
stands to benefit from new regulations from the CMA that clarify requirements
for issuing sukuk and provide a legal framework.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">In particular, the new rules aim to provide greater
transparency and protection to investors in sukuk transactions by building on
existing codes covering company law and capital markets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The regulations, which came into effect in mid-April,
introduce a trust structure and terms for sukuk programmes, providing
flexibility for corporations looking to raise money through sukuk.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Importantly, there are no restrictions on the amount
of the sukuk based on the company’s capital.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The new regulations are expected to expand the range
of investment instruments available in the sector, gradually generating greater
investor interest, according to Sheikh Abdullah bin Al Salmi, executive
president of the CMA.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“Companies have been waiting for this guidance, and
there are a number of sukuk in the pipeline, which have been aided by the
issuance of the first government sukuk,” Sheikh Abdullah told OBG. </span><span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“However,
most corporations will likely wait a bit longer for the government to issue
more in order to provide a benchmark for corporate bonds.” </span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The CMA is hopeful that codifying sukuk requirements
will further develop Oman’s Islamic financial sector and the broader capital
markets by giving companies and investors a more stable fundraising platform.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">“A vibrant fixed-income market is essential to the
development, financial stability and diversification of the regional economy,
including Oman,” Sheikh Abdullah said in early June. “This is also an integral
part of the overall strategy of the CMA to enable the capital market to play
its vital role as an alternative fundraising platform for companies in the economic
development of Oman.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #37424a; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>* This report was published by Oxford Business Group on 26 June 2016</b></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-13858754614452574122016-07-16T01:07:00.004-07:002016-07-16T01:10:48.496-07:00Why Does Tunisia Produce So Many Terrorists?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
success story of the Arab Spring has made room for moderate secularists to
flourish. But that’s a double-edged sword.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; text-transform: uppercase;">BY <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/author/christian-caryl" title="Christian Caryl">CHRISTIAN CARYL</a>*</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Why Does Tunisia Produce So Many Terrorists? " height="153" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/gettyimages-576514510-crop.jpg" width="320" /><b><span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;"> </span></b></div>
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<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">People gather
around flowers placed on the Promenade des Anglais on July 15 in Nice, France,
after a terrorist attack the previous day.</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; text-transform: uppercase;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">We still don’t have all the details,
but it would appear that the man behind the horrific terrorist attack in Nice,
France, was <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/14/death-toll-at-73-and-rising-after-attack-on-crowd-celebrating-bastille-day-in-france/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel</span></a>, a 31-year-old deliveryman and petty
criminal. Bouhlel, who was killed by police at the scene, was a French citizen.
But the detail that many terrorism experts immediately zeroed in on was his
country of origin: Tunisia. That’s right: The country that is often hailed as
“the success story of the Arab Spring” because it has actually managed to stick
with democracy since the downfall of its dictator in 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That Bouhel is Tunisian once again raises <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/why-is-tunisia-success-story-of-the-arab-spring-home-to-so-many/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">the question</span></a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Why is liberal Tunisia, of all places, producing so
many terrorists?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The experts have long since <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/20/the-jihadi-factory-tunisia-isis-islamic-state-terrorism/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">determined</span></a> that Tunisia is a disproportionate source of
recruits for radical Islamist causes. Despite the country’s relatively small
population of 11 million, Tunisians are conspicuously <a href="http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/foreign-fighters-syria-iraq-is-isis-isil-infographic/26584940.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">over-represented</span></a> among the fighters of the Islamic State in
Syria and Iraq. According to <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article24781867.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">recent estimates</span></a>, 7,000 Tunisians have joined the cause — more
than any other country, including much larger ones such as Saudi Arabia and
Egypt. There are also, according to numerous reports, thousands of Tunisians
training and fighting for jihad in Libya, Tunisia’s next-door neighbor, which
has a strong Islamic State presence. (Indeed, the Tunisian authorities have <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/04/17/97001-20150417FILWWW00392-12000-tunisiens-empeches-de-faire-le-djihad.php" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">boasted</span></a> that they’ve prevented some 12,000 other
potential jihadists from leaving the country for Syria since 2013 — a statistic
hardly as comforting as they apparently would like it to be.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Tunisian jihadists haven’t only been active
overseas.Over the past few years they’ve staged several <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/27/tunisia-braces-for-the-baclash-sousse-imperial-marhaba-arab-spring/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">high-profile attacks</span></a> on their own country. Since 2013,
terrorists have assassinated <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiyid_PgvbNAhULMz4KHcqXB_QQFgg2MAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F10%2F10%2Fworld%2Fafrica%2Fassassination-attempt-in-tunisia-highlights-mounting-crises.html&usg=AFQjCNGszGbaDyz40DB4DWC2_pwgnk0jmA&sig2=eoz9FLmsb8JCVDWKtuwI1Q&bvm=bv.127178174,d.cWw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">secular politicians</span></a>, <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/18/gunning-for-tunisian-democracy-bardo-tunis-terrorism-attack/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">targeted</span></a> popular tourist sites (virtually shutting down an
industry on which much of the economy depends), and engaged in myriad <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/two-suspected-jihadists-killed-security-7944897" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">clashes</span></a> with the police. In March, Libyan-based
jihadists, presumably of Tunisian origin, staged <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/why-is-tunisia-success-story-of-the-arab-spring-home-to-so-many/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">a full-scale assault</span></a> on the Tunisian border town of Ben
Guerdane. Though local security forces coped pretty effectively with the
attack, ultimately <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tunisia-security-idUSKCN0WF072" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">winning the battle</span></a>, it was a worrying sign of the jihadists’
ambitions and aggressiveness.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">All of this, needless to say, stands in rather
stark contrast to Tunisia’s remarkable progress at establishing democratic
institutions. The country has held several rounds of free and fair elections,
and it now boasts a vibrant range of free media and civil society groups. When
I visited a few weeks ago, I heard plenty of <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/10/15/market-for-jihad-radicalization-in-tunisia-pub-61629" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">theories</span></a> that attempted to explain why these new freedoms
have coincided with so much extremist violence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Some Tunisians told me that the collapse of the
dictatorship in the 2011 revolution and the establishment of democratic
institutions that followed had given jihadists new freedom to organize, travel,
and share information. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Religious radicals, it was pointed out, can now
openly watch satellite broadcasts of hard-line clerics streamed in from the
Gulf. Others I spoke with, including some government officials, worry that the
security apparatus was fatally weakened by post-revolutionary reforms — though
that argument seems somewhat diluted by the government’s competent response to
the Ben Guerdane attacks in the spring. Still others mentioned the failure of
democratically elected leaders to address the country’s persistent economic
malaise. Though the official unemployment rate is around 15 percent, it’s
estimated to be double that for young people, who see correspondingly few
opportunities for bettering their lives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">One thing that struck me the most about Tunisia,
however, is just how secular and Western the country looks and feels — in ways
that long predate the 2011 revolution. The country’s first post-independence
leader, <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/303168" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">President Habib
Bourguiba</span></a>, who took power in 1956, was a staunch admirer of Turkey’s
legendary Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Like Ataturk, he was a radical secularist who
imposed a modernizing agenda, including women’s rights and Western-style
education, while ruthlessly suppressing the forces of traditional religion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">He was notorious for expressing his contempt for
the veil, which he called that “odious rag.” Even today one rarely sees
men or women in traditional Islamic clothing in Tunis and many other parts of
the country — a striking contrast to neighboring Libya, where <i>hijab</i>-wearing
women are a common sight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">The problem, of course, is that pushing traditional
religion to the side doesn’t mean that everyone is going to agree. Aggressive
modernization almost always incites a backlash — and so it has gone in Tunisia,
where those with an inclination to traditional Islam have often ended up
feeling marginalized in their own country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">A very similar dynamic took hold in Turkey, under
Ataturk and his heirs. There, though, a gradual opening of the political
landscape in the late 20th century allowed Islamists to channel their ambitions
into electoral politics, embodied by the rise of current President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. Bourguiba and his successor, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, allowed for no
such expression of alternative opinions; the organizers of Tunisia’s leading Islamist
party, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/tunisia-ennahda-ditching-political-islam-160524094550153.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">Ennahdha</span></a>, returned from exile only after the 2011 revolution.
Other Tunisians who gravitated to Islamist politics sought more radical
outlets. Some joined al Qaeda, while others assumed prominent roles in the war
in Iraq.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">It was one of those veterans of the Iraqi jihad, a
man named <a href="http://fikraforum.org/?p=6260#.V4kPEo4ePhc" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">Boubaker al-Hakim</span></a>, who later played a key role in organizing
the attacks on the French satirical newspaper <i>Charlie Hebdo</i>. Like
Bouhlel, the attacker in Nice, he was also a French citizen — a reflection of
the darker side of Tunisians’ long and intimate obsession with their former
colonizer. For elite Tunisians, France is the country of their aspirations. For
less privileged Tunisian migrants, stuck in menial jobs and relegated to the
fringes of society, France is the place that <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/31/the-other-france" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">constantly reminds them</span></a> of their second-class status —
symbolized by its </span><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/panic-grips-french-muslims-as-mosques-suffer-reprisals" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none;">institutionalized contempt</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> for their “backward” religion.</span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">In the case of such people, it’s easy to see how
recourse to radical Islam is as much a matter of identity politics as it is of
religion. Indeed, judging by the reports coming in from Bouhlel’s acquaintances
and neighbors, he appears to have been motivated as much by a generalized sense
of frustration and rage as by ideology.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">In short, Tunisia’s paradox — the jarring dichotomy
between burgeoning liberalization and brewing jihad — should remind us once
again that the plague of Islamist terror isn’t reducible to simple causes. The
fact that Tunisians have been dominated by strongly secularizing regimes for
the past 60 years might well help to explain why democracy has taken root with
such surprising success since 2011. But it also seems clear that that same
modernizing trend has fueled an intense backlash among traditionalist Muslims,
often to radical effect. The fate of Tunisia, and its much-lauded democracy,
will now depend on how well the country can figure out how to bridge the gap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">Christian Caryl is the
editor of Democracy Lab, published by</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"> </span></b><span class="fpred"><b><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Foreign Policy</span></b></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">in conjunction with the
London-based Legatum Institute. A former reporter at<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><b><i style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Newsweek</span></i></b><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">, he's also the
author of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><b><i style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Strange-Rebels-1979-Birth-Century/dp/0465018386" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="color: #eb1414;">Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century</span></a></span></i></b><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">. He is a regular contributor to the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><b><i style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">New York Review of Books</span></i></b><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">and a contributing editor at
the</span></b><b><i style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">National Interest</span></i></b><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></b><b><span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">This article was published first by Foreign Policy on 15 July 2016 </span></b><b><span style="border: none 1.0pt; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-43569592805141245112016-07-14T06:06:00.002-07:002016-07-14T06:06:38.622-07:00Turkey’s ‘Deep State’ Has a Secret Back Channel to Assad<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently patched up ties with Russia and Israel. Are a
couple of nationalist politicians laying the groundwork for a deal with Syria’s
strongman?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;">Istanbul - <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/author/ceren-kenar" title="Ceren Kenar"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CEREN KENAR</span></a>*</span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Turkey’s ‘Deep State’ Has a Secret Back Channel to Assad " height="202" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/perincek.jpg" width="320" /></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Turkish Premier Minister <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Binali Yildirim</span></span></div>
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In the past month, Turkey has worked to turn two old rivals into
new friends. On June 27, Turkish officials announced a deal normalizing
relations with Israel after a six-year rift in the wake of the deadly Mavi
Marmara incident. That day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also
expressed regret to Russia over the downing of a Russian warplane in November
2015, which paved the way for the two countries to patch up their relationship.<b> </b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The fate of Syria looms large over
Turkey’s foreign-policy “reset.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Could
Ankara also extend an olive branch to its greatest enemy: Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad’s regime?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turkey cut all diplomatic ties with Syria in
September 2011, after Assad refused to institute reforms to defuse the growing
protest movement against his rule. Since then, Turkey has been supporting the
Syrian opposition, which aims to topple the Assad regime, and hosting more than
2.5 million Syrian refugees on its soil. A small, left-wing nationalist
political party now claims that the rising refugee crisis, Russia’s
heavy-handed military campaign in Syria, and a powerful Syrian Kurdish
militia’s land grab in the northern part of the country leave Turkey no choice
but to engage with the Assad regime. In fact, the leaders of that party already
claim to be passing messages between Turkish and Syrian government officials.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Homeland Party (<i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Vatan Partisi</span></i>), a nationalist movement with an
anti-Western and anti-American platform, is chaired by Dogu Perincek, a
well-known socialist politician in Turkey; its vice chair is Lt. Gen. Ismail
Hakki Pekin, the former head of the Turkish Armed Forces’ Military
Intelligence. Perincek and Pekin told </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Foreign Policy</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> that
they had meetings with members of the governments of Russia, China, Iran, and
Syria during the last year and conveyed messages they received during these
visits to high-ranking Turkish military and Foreign Ministry officials.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Perincek and Pekin — a socialist leader and an army
general, respectively — may seem like something of an odd couple. Their
political collaboration started in prison, as both men were detained in 2011 in
relation to the Ergenekon case, which alleged that a network belonging to the
“deep state” was plotting a military coup against the elected government. Both
men share a staunch Kemalist political outlook based on a very strict adherence
to secularism and Turkish nationalism, as well as an “anti-imperialist” outlook
that makes them wary of American and Western influence over Turkish politics.
In 2016, the Supreme Court of Appeals overturned convictions in the Ergenekon
trials, ruling that the “Ergenekon terror organization” did not exist at all
and that evidence had been collected illegally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Perincek and Pekin first met Assad in Damascus in
February 2015. During this meeting, Perincek said, both parties agreed on “the
need of Turkey and Syria to fight separatist and fanatical terror groups
together.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Pekin and other retired senior Turkish officers who
are also members of the Homeland Party, Rear Adm. Soner Polat and Maj. Gen.
Beyazit Karatas, subsequently visited Damascus three times. Pekin said that
during these visits — which took place in January, April, and May — the
delegation met with several of the most influential security chiefs, diplomats,
and political officials in the Syrian government. They included the head of the
Syrian General Security Directorate, Mohammed Dib Zaitoun; Ali Mamlouk, the
head of the National Security Bureau; Foreign Minister Walid Muallem; Deputy
Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad; and Abdullah al-Ahmar, assistant
secretary-general of the Syrian Baath Party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The main theme of these meetings, according to
Pekin, was “[h]ow to prepare the ground for Turkey and Syria to resume
diplomatic relations and political cooperation.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">According to the retired Turkish army
general, his meeting with Mamlouk, Syria’s powerful security chief, reached
directly to the top of the state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;"> “Mamlouk would often ask permission to go to
the next room to talk to Assad directly on phone” Pekin said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Pekin said that he debriefed senior Foreign
Ministry and military officials after each visit, and that he has sensed a
gradual change in Turkish officials’ attitudes over the past 18 months. “In
January 2015, Turkey was not ready to change its policy,” he said. “However,
during my last visit I observed that they [Foreign Ministry officials] were
more open and flexible about that issue.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">A senior Turkish Foreign Ministry official
confirmed that he met Pekin, yet vehemently denied that Turkey was negotiating with
the Assad regime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“Yes, we listened to Pekin,” the official said. “We
listen to millions of people, even truck drivers, who say they possess
sensitive information about conflict zones. But there was no exchange in these
meetings whatsoever.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">But Pekin and Perincek believe that the growing
power of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which has carved out
a large autonomous area in northern Syria along the Turkish border, could
persuade Turkish officials to come around to their argument. The PYD is closely
affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a
decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state and is considered a terrorist
organization by the United States and Ankara.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">The two leaders of the Homeland Party argue that
Turkey and the Assad regime are bound by this common enemy. “Bashar Assad told
us that the PYD is a traitor organization, a separatist group. He said he will
not tolerate such a separatist group in Syria, and he had no doubt that the PKK
and PYD are the pawns of the U.S.,” Perincek said. “I heard him say this with
my own ears.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Pekin and Perincek said that the PYD is receiving
important support from the United States, and made the case that the only way
to counteract this is to build ties with other regional countries — including
Assad’s regime. “Turkey is fighting against the PKK at home, yet this is not
enough,” he said. “Turkey has to cut the foreign support to the PYD and fight
against them to defeat the PKK. To cut the foreign support to the PKK, Turkey
has to collaborate with Syria, Iraq, Iran, [and] Russia.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">At least some Turkish government officials might be
sympathetic to that line of argument.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“Assad is ultimately a killer. He tortures his own
people. But he doesn’t support Kurdish autonomy. We may dislike one another,
but we pursue similar politics with that regard,” an unnamed senior official
with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) told Reuters on June 17.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">However, several senior Turkish
officials rejected the claim that Turkey is changing its stance against the
Assad regime. One official told </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Foreign Policy </span><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">that
the idea of Turkey collaborating with the Assad regime against the PYD was
“ludicrous.” The official asked rhetorically: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;"> “Assad cannot protect his own neighborhood —
how can he help us fight the PYD, which he empowered against Turkey and the
Syrian opposition?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">But the Syria issue isn’t the first time Perincek
and Pekin claim to have delved into diplomacy — they say they also played a
role during the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“A group of businessmen close to Erdogan approached
us to improve ties with Russia,” said Pekin, who visited Russia in December
immediately after the downing of the Russian warplane. Pekin’s group introduced
the businessmen to Alexandre Dugin, an ultra-nationalist Russian philosopher
close to the Kremlin, who explained that the Russians expected some gesture
that would amount to an apology. Perincek claimed that Alparslan Celik, the
Turkish citizen who Russia alleged killed the pilot of the downed jet, was
arrested immediately after this meeting. “We made a significant contribution to
this [reconciliation] process and both parties, Turkey and Russia, wanted us to
be a part of it.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Presidential sources said they have no information
concerning such a meeting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Asked whether the Homeland Party acts as an interlocutor
between Turkey and Syria, Perincek said, “We don’t take directions from
anyone.” Pekin and Perincek refrained from using the term “mediator” to define
their work — instead, Pekin said, “We lay the groundwork.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“There are a lot of people within the AKP,
especially around Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who see that being enemies with Syria
and Russia is not sustainable,” Perincek said. “In fact, this is why the new
cabinet was formed.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Indeed, Turkey’s foreign-policy shifts toward
Russia and Israel corresponded with a political shift in Ankara. After
long-standing disagreements with Erdogan, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
resigned on May 4. He was replaced by the Binali Yildirim, who signaled that he
would not pursue the policies of his predecessor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“We will continue to improve ties with our
neighbors,” Yildirim told AKP’s Politics Academy on July 11. “There is no
reason for us to fight with Iraq, Syria, or Egypt, but we need to take our
cooperation with them further.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">The power balance among different
security actors in Turkey has also been changing. The <i>Wall Street
Journal</i> <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-militarys-influence-rises-again-1463346285" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eb1414; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">reported</span></a> that the Turkish Army is regaining leverage over
politics, as the Kurdish issue and regional security threats escalate. For
decades, the Turkish Armed Forces exerted direct control over democratically
elected governments and staged four coups to protect its political privilege.
The military lost influence under the AKP government — but the ugly divorce
between the AKP and the Gulen Movement, which split in late 2013, has empowered
the old establishment. While the Gulenists used to have a powerful influence in
state institutions, he said, “these people are being replaced with those who
are loyal to the republic, nation, and against religious brotherhoods.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">A senior AKP official said that there had been
“some unfortunate incidents in the past” between the government and the army,
but that the relationship was now healthy. “[C]oordination between the army and
government has been intensified during the last several years,” the official
said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
Turkish Army is known to be wary of the country’s policy against Assad. A
senior government official, who used to be among the makers of Turkey’s Syria
policy, said that the government wanted to establish a buffer zone in northern
Syria, but that the Turkish Army resisted this decision as early as 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">“From the very beginning the Turkish Army was in
favor of keeping friendships, good relations, and cooperation with Syria, Iraq,
Iran, and Russia,” Perincek said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">Presidential and Foreign Ministry sources
strongly deny rumors that Turkey is shifting its Syria policy, saying the
removal of the Assad regime remains a priority for Turkey. Other observers,
however, have noticed a change in emphasis in Ankara’s stance toward Syria:
Abdulkadir Selvi, a veteran journalist with the Turkish daily <i>Hurriyet</i>,
makes the case that Turkey is transitioning from an “era of idealism,” embodied
by Davutoglu’s term, to what government supporters will promote as an “era of
realism.” In this new era, Selvi argues, the Turkish government will continue
criticizing the Syrian regime — but also expend less effort to topple Assad and
cooperate with actors who want to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish
corridor in northern Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; padding: 0cm;">As Selvi argues: “The territorial integrity of
Syria is now more important for the Turkish state than the fate of the Assad
regime.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: -18pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Symbol; font-size: 9pt; padding: 0cm;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt;">Ceren Kenar is an Istanbul-based
journalist working for the Turkish daily<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><b><i style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; padding: 0cm;">Türkiye</span></i></b><b><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt;">.</span></b><b><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: -18pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Symbol; font-size: 9pt; padding: 0cm;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt;">This article was published first by
Foreign Policy on 12 July 2016</span></b><b><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-7014968283339066182016-07-13T06:57:00.003-07:002016-07-13T07:01:54.787-07:00The Iran Deal Worked: Here's How to Make It Even More Effective<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By <span style="color: #63788c; text-decoration: none;"><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/trita-parsi" title="More articles by Trita Parsi">Trita Parsi</a>*</span></span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<img alt="U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attend a bilateral meeting in Vienna, Austria, May 17, 2016." height="216" src="https://files.foreignaffairs.com/styles/large-alt/s3/images/articles/2016/07/11/paris_theirandealworked_kerry.jpg?itok=peHh6xR3" width="320" /></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "williamscaslontext" , "georgia" , "times new roman" , "dejavu serif" , serif; line-height: 27.44px; white-space: nowrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Ja</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , , sans-serif; line-height: 36px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">vad Zarif</span></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A year
has passed since diplomats from Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the
United Kingdom, and the United States; plus Germany) defied conventional wisdom
and struck a deal aimed at both preventing Iran from getting the bomb and
preventing it from getting bombed. At the time, the deal’s detractors were
apoplectic; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “</span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-israel.html" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">historic mistake</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">”
that would </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/03/03/full-text-netanyahus-address-to-congress/" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">pave the way for
Iran to obtain a bomb</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. But the world has not come to an end. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Iran is
not the hegemon of the Middle East, Israel can still be found on the map, and
Washington and Tehran still define each other as enemies. These days, voices
such as Jonathan Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League, criticize the deal
for </span><a href="http://blog.adl.org/greenblatt/the-iranian-regime-has-not-changed" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">having changed
too little</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But a
closer examination shows that it has had a profound impact on the region’s
geopolitical dynamics. Only four years ago, the Iranian nuclear program was
consistently referred to as the United States’ number one national security
threat. Senior U.S. officials put the risk of an <a href="http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/02/02/10303860-panetta-report-fuels-concerns-that-israel-will-attack-iran"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">Israeli attack
on Iran at 50–50</span></a>, a confrontation that the United States would
quickly get dragged into. A war that was even more destabilizing than the Iraq
invasion was not just a possibility; it seemed likely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Today,
however, the talk of war is gone. Even the hawkish government of Netanyahu has
gone silent on the matter. Former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, a hawk in his
own right, <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Yaalon-Israel-doesnt-face-any-existential-threat-not-even-Iran-456978"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">announced a few
weeks ago</span></a> that “at this point, and in the foreseeable future,
there is no existential threat facing Israel. Thus it is fitting that the
leadership of the country stop scaring the citizenry and stop giving them the
feeling that we are standing before a second Holocaust.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover,
members of the U.S. Congress who have recently visited Israel have also noted
that Israelis are no longer shifting every conversation to a discussion about
the Iranian nuclear threat. “I can’t count how many times I, and many members
of Congress, were urgently and passionately informed that negotiation with the
Iranian menace was wishful thinking and the height of folly,” Representative
Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-keith-ellison/the-quiet-triumph-of-dipl_b_10438268.html"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">wrote after a
recent visit to Israel</span></a>. “And now? Nothing.”<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
nuclear deal has thus halted the march toward war and Iran’s progress toward a
bomb. And that certainly qualifies as significant change. To continue to argue
that Israel and the region are not safer as a result of the deal would be to
contend that Iran’s nuclear program was never a threat to begin with. That is a
not a position that the Likud government in Israel can argue with a straight
face.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Other
criticisms of the deal centered on predictions that Iran would not honor the
agreement. Yet the International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran is<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3612587/Iran-sticking-nuclear-deal-UN-watchdog.html"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">abiding by its
obligations under the deal</span></a>. Also not borne out have been prophecies
that Iran’s regional policies would radicalize, that the deal would, as The
Heritage Foundation’s James Phillips wrote, <a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/05/the-dangerous-regional-implications-of-the-iran-nuclear-agreement"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">“project
[American] weakness that could further encourage Iranian hardliners.”</span></a> To
be sure, Washington continues to view many of Iran’s regional activities as
unhelpful and destabilizing, but those activities have not increased as a
result of the nuclear deal. Hezbollah and Tehran’s posture toward Israel has,
for instance, not become more aggressive than it already was. Any changes that
have occurred have been rooted in regional developments—the Syrian civil war or
the Saudi assault on Yemen—rather than the nuclear deal. Important developments
in Syria, such as Russia’s broader entry into the war or Iran’s maneuvers on
the ground, are divorced from the nuclear deal and directly tied to
developments on the ground in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If
anything, as the European Union’s foreign policy head, Federica Mogherini, told
me last December, the deal paved the way for renewed dialogue on Syria, which
offers a glimmer of hope to end the carnage there. “What we have now in
Syria—talks bringing together all the different actors (and we have it now and
not last year)—is because we had the [nuclear] deal,” she told me. And last
month, U.S. Secretary Of State John Kerry <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/28/politics/john-kerry-iran-helpful-iraq-isis/"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">stated that Iran
has been “helpful” in Iraq</span></a>, where both the United States and Iran
are fighting the Islamic State (ISIS).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
undisputable that outside of the nuclear deal, the relationship between the
United States and Iran has shifted significantly since the breakthrough. That
became abundantly clear in January, when ten American sailors drifted into
Iranian waters and were apprehended by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps—and were then promptly released. An incident that in the pre-deal era
likely would have taken months, if not years, to resolve was now settled in 16
hours. Direct diplomacy between Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif combined
with a mutual desire to resolve the matter quickly made all the difference. The
two countries had embarked on a path that could transform their relationship,
and both were too committed to that path to allow the incident to fester. “I
was afraid that this [the sailors’ arrest] would jeopardize everything, not
just the implementation [of the JCPOA],” Zarif admitted to me.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But for
relations to improve beyond the nuclear deal, moderate elements on both sides
need to be strengthened by the deal. That is one area where the skepticism of
the critics may have been justified. Rather than seeing the government of
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani gain momentum after the deal, the pushback
from Iranian hardliners has been fierce. Those officials couldn’t prevent Iran
from signing the agreement, but they could create enough problems to halt any
effort to translate the nuclear deal into a broader opening to the United
States. A swift crackdown against individuals and entities seeking to build
bridges between Iran and the West had its intended effect: Confidence that the
nuclear deal would usher in a new era for U.S.-Iranian relations quickly
plummeted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover,
challenges to sanctions relief has given hardline opponents of the deal in Iran
a boost. Their critique of the agreement—that the United States is not
trustworthy—seems to ring true since no major banks have been willing to enter
the Iranian market. The banks’ hesitation, in turn, is mainly rooted in the
fear that after the U.S. presidential elections, Washington’s political
commitment to the deal will wane.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Neither
Republican candidate Donald Trump nor Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton have
signaled any desire to continue down the Obama administration’s path with Iran
in general. Clinton has vowed to uphold the deal, but neither she nor Trump
have made it crystal clear that they will protect the agreement from new
congressional sanctions or other measures that would cause the deal’s collapse.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Clinton’s
team has signaled that its priority will be to rebuild relations with Israel
and Saudi Arabia and restore those allies’ confidence that the United States
will counter Iran in the region. Meanwhile, the uncertainty around a Trump
presidency needs no explaining. As a result, many banks deem the risk of
entering the Iranian market too high due to the political challenges on the
U.S. side. That has left Iranians without much in the way of sanctions relief,
which is in turn costing Rouhani politically.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In other
words, although the deal has been remarkably successful in achieving its
explicit goals—halting, and even reversing, Iran’s nuclear advances while
avoiding a costly and risky war with Tehran—its true value in rebalancing U.S.
relationships in the Persian Gulf and creating a broader opening with Iran may
be squandered once Obama leaves office. If Obama’s successor returns to the
United States’ old ways in the Middle East while hardliners in Tehran stymie
outreach to the West, these unique and historic opportunities will be wasted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">* TRITA PARSI is the
author of the forthcoming book<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><em>Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Rebirth of Diplomacy</em>. He is also President of the National Iranian
American Council.</b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
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<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">* This article was
published first by the Foreign Affairs on 11 July 2016</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-8405433636211981082016-07-07T00:43:00.002-07:002016-07-07T00:53:01.921-07:00Iran And Its Protégées<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background: white; color: #262526; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; text-transform: uppercase;">BY<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span class="author"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="color: #eb1414;"><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/raymond-tanter" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" title="Raymond Tanter">RAYMOND TANTER</a>*</span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="author"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="color: #eb1414;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="author"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><img alt="Iran and its Protégées " height="153" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/gettyimages-462606296.jpg" width="320" /></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="author"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.875rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="color: #eb1414;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What if we
understood al Qaeda and the Islamic State as protégées of Iran, rather than
merely its rivals? At first glance, this might seem outlandish, given
that al Qaeda and the Islamic State are Sunni militant groups while Iran is a
Shiite theocracy, and each nominally regards the others as theological
apostates. Because the suggestion of a familial lineage between these groups
and Iran flies in the face of conventional wisdom, it is necessary to test the
claim by looking for indications of mutual influence, shared values, and
shared goals. For example, on June 10, 2016, Tallha Abdulrazaq, a researcher at
the University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute, <a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/iran-what-would-look-if-it-succeeds-902828908" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">suggested</span></a>, “Iran is
what the Islamic State will look like if it succeeds.” He pointed to
similarities in behavior between Iran and its supposed protégée: Each had
committed horrendous terrorist actions and human rights violations at home
and abroad in the name of Islamist militancy. Similarities in behavior,
however, may not be sufficient to demonstrate family ties.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">U.S. cable traffic released by <em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">Wikileaks</span></em> showed links between Tehran and al
Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor of the Islamic State. A cable titled “Iraq
war logs: Al Qaida’s new suicide bombing tactics,” dated November 17,
2006, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/iraq/warlogs/C39190D3-0310-47E3-A50A-27B920C4A81B" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">published</span></a> in the<em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;"> Guardian</span></em> on
October 22, 2010, provided evidence that Tehran trained al Qaeda
insurgents in Iraq to use suicide vests fitted with cameras. On March 9, 2016,
the U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York in Manhattan <a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/iran-what-would-look-if-it-succeeds-902828908" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">ordered</span></a> Iran to pay compensation to
September 11 victims for Tehran’s alleged role in aiding the al Qaeda
hijackers.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The roots of these
potential links go back to 1979. “The threat of violent Sunni Islamism was
essentially nonexistent until 1979,” when Iran’s revolution became a symbol of
the potential power of political Islam, Andrew Peek, an expert on terrorism in
the Middle East,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-14/how-islamist-radicalism-ends" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">wrote</span></a> in<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">Foreign
Affairs</span></em>. Not coincidentally, Sunni extremists seized the Grand
Mosque in Mecca that same year. While their theological differences are real,
Sunni and Shia militants both made their modern debut on the global stage that
year, as violent Islamism became a new global presence.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The Islamists’ perspectives found
fertile ground as radicalism prospered in soil fertilized with the blood
of extremists in the post-Gulf War period. More recently, Iran’s
efforts to spread its revolution to Iraq and Syria provided the oxygen for
the rise of al Qaeda’s terrible descendant, the Islamic State. The Iranian
regime has made indirect use of the Islamic State to bolster Syrian president
Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, and to control Iraq by supporting sectarian
killings by militias in places like Fallujah.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The conventional wisdom is that al Qaeda
and the Islamic State are mortal enemies with Iran. But the conventional wisdom
misses a deeper way in which the apparent enemies are mutually dependent and
inspired by a common apocalyptic vision of Islam. They are mutually dependent
as sometime adversaries who are all nonetheless sworn enemies of secular,
Western values. The United States needs to defeat al Qaeda and the Islamic
State, but not in a way that further empowers Iran and provides the seed
for the next generation of this toxic family. Hence, President
Barack Obama’s realpolitik acquiescence to Iran’s support
for Shia proxies and the Revolutionary Guard in Iraq is exactly the wrong
tonic.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The counterargument is that ousting Iran
from Iraq might require reinsertion of U.S. ground forces, for which there is
scant public support, and which would jeopardize relations with other world
powers. Discussed below: options other than a massive ground force
deployment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">Islamist
Protégées</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">According to<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/iran-saudi-arabia-islam-rivalry-by-nawaf-obaid-2015-11#6KZ41Ot2MEakQKsZ.99" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Nawaf Obaid</span></a>, a visiting fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy
School, the Iranian regime is seeking to overthrow a balance of power that has
endured for some 1,400 years. Besides Christians and Sunnis in Syria and Iraq,
Tehran’s targets include Sunnis in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
The Revolutionary Guard in Iraq, the Quds special forces, and
Tehran’s proxies, like Hezbollah in Syria, spread the Islamist revolution of
1979 across borders. Thus, it is not a surprise that Riyadh<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://fikraforum.org/?p=7907#.VlJzQ_mrRaQ" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">views</span></a> Tehran in an unfavorable light. The same has
begun to <a href="http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/9275.htm" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">hold true</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>for the Lebanese and Hezbollah.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The Islamic State did not just rise up
from hell. Its ascent derives from Assad’s killing of civilians. His
primary sponsor is the regime in Tehran, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/jack-keane-leaving-iraq-was-an-absolute-strategic-failure/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">according to</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Gen. Jack Keane, chair of
the Institute for the Study of War. Iran is<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2015-11-15/irans-isis-trap" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">using</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>the rise of the Islamic State to
consolidate power in Syria, and to keep Iraq’s Shiites and Assad standing
against well-armed and tenacious Sunni forces.<em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;"> </span></em><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In May, leaked documents<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-assad-regime-cooperating-with-islamic-state-in-syria/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">revealed</span></a> Assad-Islamic State collusion stretching
back to the start of the Syrian civil war. The Assad regime and Iran nurtured
the rise of al Qaeda, and then the Islamic State, in Syria. After the
group had matured fully, Damascus and Tehran offered themselves as
partners to the United States in the Vienna talks on Syria. On the battlefield,
however, Russian and Syrian warplanes continue to provide support, while
maintaining plausible deniability, for the Islamic State, as it advanced
on rebel-held areas. Meanwhile, the Islamic State and pro-Assad forces mainly
refrained from attacking each other in an<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/ententecordiale1904.htm" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #eb1414; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">entente cordiale</span></em></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In July 2015, just before the United
States adopted the nuclear deal with Iran, a pan-Arab daily, <em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">Al-Hayat,</span></em> reported that Secretary of State
John Kerry, during a trip to Russia, had posed the idea of setting up a
Syrian “contact group” consisting of regional and international actors. Kerry
would have included Doha, Istanbul, Moscow, Riyadh, Tehran, and Washington.
Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, <a href="http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/194660/obama-licenses-iran-to-ship-missiles-to-hezbollah" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">said</span></a> in October that Washington had
legitimized Iran’s local assets and means of projecting power by
recognizing the country as a principal “stakeholder” in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Legitimizing Tehran as an interested
party implicitly acknowledges its support for Hezbollah and interest in
preserving a land bridge to Hezbollah’s base in Lebanon. Since 1997, the State
Department has<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257523.htm" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">listed</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Hezbollah as a designated terrorist
organization — yet the State Department advocated inclusion of Iran in a
contact group.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">“After many years of sanctions targeting,
today Hezbollah is in its worst financial shape in decades…. And I can
assure you that, alongside our international partners, we are working hard to
put them out of business,”<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/31/jonathan-schanzer-putting-hezbollah-out-of-busines/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank">said</a> </span>Adam Szubin, acting U.S. Treasury undersecretary
for terrorism and financial intelligence, as quoted by Jonathan Schanzer,
a former terrorism finance analyst at the Treasury and now vice president for
research at FDD.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But Hezbollah is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Iran. Tehran bargained for and received a humongous financial
windfall of some $100 billion pursuant to last summer’s nuclear deal; with such
money available to Hezbollah, Schanzer wisely<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/31/jonathan-schanzer-putting-hezbollah-out-of-busines/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">comments</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>that no entity is in a position to put
it “out of business” anytime soon.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The conventional wisdom that Iran is an
enemy of al Qaeda and the Islamic State because they have fought each other is
partly correct. But this interpretation masks areas in which cooperation is
also present. The three are like “frenemies,” actors that purport to be enemies
but covertly perform friendly interactions on more than an occasional
basis, as has been demonstrated above.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The counterargument also assumes that
even if a new U.S. president were to see the need to oust Iran from Iraq, she
or he might have to authorize ground combat forces to go into Iraq and Syria.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-repercussions-of-americas-uncertain-tone-in-the-middle-east/2014/01/07/c797e6dc-77bc-11e3-af7f-13bf0e9965f6_story.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">suggests</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>another way: Deter Iran while
destroying al Qaeda and the Islamic State by rebuilding the CIA alignment with
Sunni tribal chiefs in Anbar province.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In addition, a new political-military
strategy needs to focus on the constellation of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/19/irans-shiite-militias-are-running-amok-in-iraq/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Iranian-backed militias in Iraq</span></a>, to keep them in check.
How? Organize a coalition of Sunni Gulf states, Jordan, Turkey, and the Kurdish
Peshmerga in northern Iraq. Along with Iranian dissidents, such a coalition
would increase costs to Tehran, its proxies, and Shiite militias for colluding
with Islamist organizations in the destabilization of Iraq and Syria. And it
would bring strategic clarity to an important but overlooked fact: America’s
adversaries are militant Islamists of the Sunni and Shia variety, embodied in
al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span class="author"><span style="background: white; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #262526; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span></o:p></span></span><b style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: small;"><span style="background: white; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">* Raymond Tanter was a former member of the National Security
Council staff and Representative of the Secretary of Defense to arms control
talks during the Reagan-Bush Administration.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background: white; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">* This article was published first by Foreign Policy on
06/07/201</span></span><span style="background: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.75pt; line-height: 107%;">6</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-87320650322646047302016-07-02T01:51:00.003-07:002016-07-02T01:53:56.084-07:00Stateless And For Sale In The Gulf<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">B</span></i><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">y <span style="color: #63788c; text-decoration: none;"><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/pardis-mahdavi" title="More articles by Pardis Mahdavi">Pardis Mahdavi</a>*</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<img height="183" src="https://files.foreignaffairs.com/styles/large-alt/s3/mahdavi_gulf_rtxf69c.jpg?itok=IhLt1n2c" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="color: #63788c; font-family: "williamscaslontext" , "georgia" , "times new roman" , "dejavu serif" , serif; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic; line-height: 27.44px; white-space: nowrap;">Stateless Kuwaiti Bedouin women hold up signs in their tent camp near the Iraqi-Kwaiti borders</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last year, the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) handed Semira, 19, a passport for the Comoro Islands, one of the poorest
nations on earth, and told her she had 11 months to leave. Although she had
been stateless all her life, Semira was born and raised in Dubai and had fully
embraced its cosmopolitan culture. She has never stepped foot on the tiny,
tropical islands that were to become her homeland, nor did she want to, as she
has no roots or family there. She doesn’t have much of a choice, though. Since
she isn't even a citizen of the UAE, she is pretty much powerless to fight the
government, which is paying the cash-strapped Comoros to take stateless people
like her off its hands.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Semira became stateless as a result
of the UAE’s confounding policies on birthright. As she understands it, her
mother came to Dubai from India to work as household help but became pregnant
after her employer raped her. He then denied paternity and turned her over to
the police when she was near term. In the UAE, it is illegal to have sex out of
wedlock, no matter the circumstance.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">After giving birth, Semira’s mother
served a one-year prison sentence, which ended with her deportation to India.
But because citizenship passes through the father in both India (at the time
Semira was born) and the UAE, which doesn’t recognize birthright citizenship,
Semira’s mother was unable to procure a passport for Semira to bring her to
India. She had to leave Semira behind.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If it were not for a prison guard
whom Semira’s mother had befriended while in jail, Semira may have ended up at
the local orphanage and would have faced a life of poverty. Instead, the guard
suggested sending her to a family member of Zayed bin Sultan Al Nayan, the
former president of the UAE. According to the director of one of the orphanages
in Ras al-Khaimah, with whom I spoke, some 30 percent of children from the
orphanages are raised at the royal palaces and provided education, food,
housing, and support. The royals consider it an act of Islamic charity and
these children are commonly called “children of the Emir.” At this time, it is
unclear whether Semira’s connections shielded her from deportation. She has
been unreachable for the last two months, which means she could either be
laying low or already in Comoros.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In my recently published book,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=24887"><em><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none;">Crossing the Gulf</span></em></a>, I document the stories of stateless
people like Semira in the Arabian Peninsula, which includes some of the largest
migrant-receiving countries in the world. In the UAE, migrant workers make up
80 percent of its population. In neighboring Kuwait, migrants outnumber
citizens three to one. But most Gulf States refuse to offer citizenship rights
and protection to them, even to those born within their borders. It is estimated
that there are over 100,000 stateless individuals in the UAE alone and over
130,000 in neighboring Kuwait.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the past decade, the Gulf has
seen an increase in female migrants from Asia and Africa who take up jobs as
domestic workers, nannies, beauticians, and service workers. Under the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em>kefala</em><span class="apple-converted-space"><i> </i></span>system, used by many Gulf states to
govern guest labor, workers are forbidden to engage in sexual relations for the
duration of their contracts. Since pregnancy gives them away, it is often only
the women who are punished for breaking<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em>Kefala</em><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>rules
and sharia law, which criminalizes<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em>zina</em><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>or
sex outside of marriage<em>.</em><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Because
most women who migrate to the Gulf do so during their most fertile years, and
may spend five to ten years in their host countries, this form of contractual
sterilization is impossible to abide by. And although some women find
themselves in consensual relationships, others are exploited and raped by
abusive employers.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result, it is sadly common for
women such as Semira’s mother to give birth in jail and then have their babies
sent to an orphanage after the women are deported. Not helping matters is that
both the UAE and a number of sending countries only allow citizenship to
transfer through the father. But if no father claims paternity—and this is
often the case because coming forward would mean facing punishment for breaking<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em>zina</em>—the child becomes stateless. With hundreds of
thousands of migrants coming to the Gulf every year, dating back to the 1980s,
from places such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—countries
that up until recently only permitted paternal citizenship transfer—hundreds
and sometimes thousands of children are born to migrant women and left behind.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The children of migrant women are
not the only ones who experience the perils of statelessness. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There are over
100,000 stateless persons known as</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><em style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">bidoon</em><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">in
Kuwait, who do not have citizenship either because of bureaucratic hiccups when
Kuwait became a nation state in 1961 (a portion of them failed to register as
citizens) or long-standing discrimination against those who were once nationals
of neighboring countries but were absorbed by Kuwait after the borders changed.
As far as she knows, Rania, 21, who is a</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><em style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">bidoon</em><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, was born in
Kuwait City to a domestic worker from Ethiopia who may have been deported
shortly after giving birth. She has spent her entire life living in an
orphanage in the city's outskirts, but as a stateless person, she has been
unable to find a job or rent an apartment. Still, Rania sees Kuwait as her
home. And she was devasted when she received a Comoro Islands passport last
month and was told to settle there within a year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“This is the ultimate in unfair,”
Rania told me. “I couldn’t go with my mom to her home, and now I can’t stay in
the place I call home? Why don’t people even ask me what I want?”<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Semira and Rania are part of deals
that UAE and Kuwait signed with Comoros in 2008 and 2016. In exchange for
building roads and providing development aid to the poverty-stricken island
nation, Emiratis and Kuwaitis are “buying” citizenships for their undocumented
residents. Initially, these deals involved only issuing new passports without
requirements for holders to physically move out of the Gulf. In recent months,
however, it became clear that a growing number of them will have to move to
Comoros. Although the official policy remains unclear, some officials say that
Comoros began asking that these new "Comorians" move to the islands,
while others believe that the Gulf countries are simply trying to get rid of
their stateless population.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Regardless, activists have condemned the practice, likening it to slavery—the
selling of a person and the economizing of what is a human right. As the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights says, “[e]veryone has the right to a
nationality” and “[n]o one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his nationality nor
denied the right to change his nationality.” Comorians have protested, too,
feeling that the government is essentially selling their nation’s soul, while
populations in the Gulf argue that this is a solution that fails to resolve the
thorny issues of statelessness or citizen transfer.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On the other hand, the Philippines,
from which a number of people move to the Gulf for work, has come up with
alternative laws to prevent statelessness. In 1987, its government passed a law
allowing Philippine citizenship to pass through both the mother and father.
That allows most of the Filipina women I interviewed in the Gulf to take their children
home with them if and when they have to leave. The Philippine embassy in both
Kuwait and the UAE also offer shelter to children whose mothers are
incarcerated or are on trial for<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><em>zina</em><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and
they make sure to provide passports for these new citizens.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead of shipping their problems
off to Comoros, Gulf countries could at the very least negotiate citizen
transfers with sending nations or encourage them to follow the example of the
Philippines, as a start. After all, their tactic of offshoring their stateless
population is unsustainable in the long run. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Comoros will realize at some point
that this is a bad bargain. There are nearly one million stateless people in
the Gulf and the population of Comoros is only 730,000 (and the island nation
is about the size of Rhode Island). It is ill equipped to deal with dramatic
increases to its population and in a few years time, the Gulf countries may
find themselves back to square one.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">* PARDIS MAHDAVI is Associate Professor and Chair of
Anthropology at Pomona College. She is the author of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><em>Passionate Uprisings: Iran's Sexual
Revolution</em><span class="apple-converted-space"> and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><em>Gridlock: Labor, Migration, and
Human Trafficking in Dubai</em>.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">- This article was published first by Foreign
Affairs on 30 June 2016</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-34313779267002018262016-07-01T05:12:00.003-07:002016-07-01T05:13:55.235-07:00Economic Implications of Brexit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>By Ben S.
Bernanke*</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<img alt="Image result for brexit poll" height="239" src="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT5uDEh5AIVTDoc0BVZWRnbfTHOYH1PfLNztMAPVkbmooU2Tl-mXA" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">After several days of market upset, a few reflections on last week’s
momentous vote in Great Britain.</span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even more obvious now than before the vote is that the biggest losers,
economically speaking, will be the British themselves. The vote ushers in what
will be several years of tremendous uncertainty—about the rules that will
govern the U.K.’s trade with its continental neighbors, about the fates of
foreign workers in Britain and British workers abroad, and about the country’s
political direction, including perhaps where its borders will ultimately lie.
Such fundamental uncertainty will depress business formation, capital
investment, and hiring; indeed, it had begun to do so even before the vote. The
U.K. economic slowdown to come will be exacerbated by falling asset values
(houses, commercial real estate, stocks) and damaged confidence on the part of
households and businesses. Ironically, the sharp decline in the value of the
pound may be a bit of a buffer here as, all else equal, it will make British
exports more competitive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the longer run, the uncertainty will dissipate, but the economic
costs to the U.K. still will exceed the benefits. Financial services and other
globally oriented industries, which depend on unfettered access to European
markets and exchanges, will come under pressure. At the same time, the
purported gains from freeing the U.K. from the heavy regulatory hand of
Brussels will be limited, because Britain will likely have to accept most of
those rules (without ability to influence them) as part of restructured trade
agreements. Immigration is unpopular in the U.K., and slowing it was a motivation
for some “leave” voters, but a more slowly growing labor force likely would
also reduce overall economic growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The rest of Europe will also be adversely affected, even though
Frankfurt and a few other cities may gain finance jobs at the expense of
London. The biggest risks here are political, as has been widely noted: In
particular, markets are already beginning to price in the risk that other
countries or regions will press for greater autonomy from Brussels. Even those
sympathetic to such demands should worry that attempts to unwind existing trade
and regulatory arrangements could be highly disruptive, as they will likely be
for Great Britain. A move toward exit by a member of the euro zone would be
particularly destabilizing, as even the possibility that a country might leave
the common currency could provoke bank runs and speculative attacks on the
country’s sovereign debt and on other countries that might be thought to be
next in line. The challenge for European leaders will be to keep the overall
integration process on track, while finding ways to meet the concerns of
potential leavers. One issue that could be revisited is the EU’s commitment to
the absolutely free movement of people across borders, which seems more a
political than an economic principle; the perception that the U.K. had lost
control of its borders was one of the most effective arguments for “leave,” and
secessionist movements elsewhere have also seized on the <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="fn1"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="ftn1"></a>issue. <span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/06/28-brexit#footnote1">[1]</a></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Globally, the Brexit shock is being transmitted mostly through financial
markets, as investors sell off risky assets like stocks and flock to supposed
safe havens like the dollar and the sovereign debt of the U.S., Germany, and
Japan. Investors are perhaps more risk-averse than they otherwise would be
because they know that advanced-economy central bankers have less space than in
the past to ease monetary policy. Among the hardest hit countries is Japan,
whose battle against deflation could be set back by the strengthening of the
yen and the decline in Japanese equity prices. In the United States, the
economic recovery is unlikely to be derailed by the market turmoil, so long as
conditions in financial markets don’t get significantly worse: The
strengthening of the dollar and the declines in U.S. equities are relatively
moderate so far. Moreover, the decline in longer-term U.S. interest rates
(including mortgage rates) partially offsets the tightening effects of the dollar
and stocks on financial conditions. However, clearly the Fed and other U.S.
policymakers will remain cautious until the effects of the British vote are
better sorted out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Although bank stock prices are taking hits, especially in the U.K. and
Europe, a financial crisis seems quite unlikely at this point. Central banks
are monitoring the funding and financial conditions of banks, and so far
serious problems have not emerged. (It helps that the date of the referendum
has been known for months, giving authorities time to prepare. Also helpful is
the substantial buildup in bank capital in recent years.) Through its currency
swap lines, established during the global financial crisis, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/boj-to-tap-fed-for-largest-dollar-swap-since-late-2014-in-wake-of-brexit-vote-1467098965?mod=djemCentralBanksPro&tpl=cb"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">the Fed is
making sure that other major central banks have access to dollars</span></a>.
As I’ve already suggested, the biggest risks to financial stability at this
point appear to be political—specifically, the risk of further defections or
breakdown in the European Union—rather than economic. The story may not be over
yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span><br />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/06/28-brexit#fn1"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">[1]</span></a> <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="footnote1"></a>Britain has substantial immigration from both EU and non-EU
countries. The debate over Brexit sometimes seemed to confound the two, even
though only the former is protected by the EU treaties.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white;">Ben S. Bernanke is a Distinguished Fellow in Residence with the
Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and also serves as a
Senior Advisor to PIMCO and Citadel. From February 2006 through January 2014,
he was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.</span></b><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="background: white;">This article was published first on the Brooking Institute Web on 28
June 2018</span></b><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-27822181077648324392016-06-28T05:29:00.002-07:002016-06-28T05:36:29.898-07:00The Paradox Of Higher Education In MENA<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>By Shanta Devarajan*</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><img alt="Image result for american university of beirut" height="214" src="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQVXXlTTzZc9ndbXMJ_02DDHxGW9TljjN-Zlx7YUKKqqDSymLB1" width="320" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 107%;"><b>American University in Beirut </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) was the cradle of higher
education. The three oldest, still-functioning universities in the world
are in </span><a href="http://mentalfloss.com/article/18853/quick-10-10-oldest-still-functioning-universities-world" style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Iran, Morocco,
and Egypt</span></a><span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. The University of Al-Karaouine in Fes has been
granting degrees since 859 A.D. The </span><a href="http://www.bibalex.org/en/default" style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Ancient Library of Alexandria</span></a><span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, in addition
to being repository of books and manuscripts, was a center of learning during
the Ptolemaic dynasty, with scholars traveling to there from all around the
Mediterranean and beyond. And scholars such as </span><a href="http://faculty.georgetown.edu/imo3/ibn.htm" style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Ibn Khaldoun</span></a><span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> discovered
fundamental economics four centuries before Adam Smith and others. In short,
all of us who have benefited from a university education owe a debt to the MENA
region.</span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet, today the quality of higher education in MENA is among the lowest
in the world. Only two or three Arab universities are in the list of the top <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higher_Education_in_the_Arab_World#Global_rankings"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">500 universities
in the world</span></a> (and none are in the top 200). Employers in
the region complain that university graduates lack the skills needed to work in
the global marketplace. Many are not trained in science, mathematics,
engineering, and other technical subjects where the jobs are. Furthermore,
these graduates lack the “soft skills,” including creativity and teamwork,
partly because their training has emphasized memorization and rote learning. In
Egypt, despite an unemployment rate of over 10 percent, some 600,000 jobs
remain <a href="http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/10/24/000350881_20141024080250/Rendered/PDF/884470EG0repla00Box385343B00PUBLIC0.pdf"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">unfilled</span></a>.
About 40 percent of university graduates in MENA are unemployed; the labor
force participation of women, most of whom are better educated than the men, is
the lowest in the world. Worse, violent extremist groups have used
universities as one of their sources of recruitment.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How could this have happened? How could the same region that created
higher education have a system that is so dysfunctional that it’s contributing
to, rather than alleviating, the problems facing MENA? And how can the
situation be turned around, so that the universities are once again the best in
the world?<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">We can start by seeking the reasons behind the current problems of the
region. To be sure, the reasons for the high unemployment rate among university
graduates are manifold and have mostly to do with the investment climate and
the (lack of) growth of the private sector. But there is one feature that is
common to all the countries in the region: The majority of university
graduates received jobs in the public sector. The state was the employer of
first and last resort.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This feature had an impact on the quality of university education:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> The subject of specialization didn’t matter as much in the public
sector, so students didn’t choose to study science and engineering; they chose
somewhat “easier” subjects such as literature and history.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The public sector was not demanding of soft skills. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The nature of the curriculum, with its emphasis on memory, repeating
what the professor says without questioning or debating, may have been
acceptable for the public sector—but it didn’t help the private sector, which
is looking for creative minds who will invent the next Uber, for example.
This curriculum may have also made it easier for radicalized groups to recruit
students. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The second, more controversial, reason has to do with the pricing of
university education. Almost all the universities provided education free of
charge, based on the notion that poor people should have access to higher
education as a means of escaping poverty. Unfortunately, the result has been
that the overwhelming majority of students in universities come from the <a href="http://www.academia.edu/5397406/Financing_higher_Education_In_Egypt"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">richest</span></a> parts
of the population. The pattern is not unique to MENA: It is found in <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/Indonesia-EquityandAccessinHigherEducation.pdf"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Asia</span></a> and <a href="http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/content/20/suppl_3/iii133.abstract"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Africa</span></a>.
And the reason has to do with economics. Whenever something is provided
for free, there is excess demand. Universities ration the excess demand by
requiring students to pass an entrance exam. The rich can afford to send their
children to the best secondary schools to prepare them to pass the entrance
exam. As a result, the universities are full of students from the richest
strata of society. Put another way, free higher education confers a huge rent
to those who have access to it. And the rich are better placed to seize those
rents than the poor.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In fact, the problem is worse because free education gives weak
incentives to improve the quality of university education. The university has
little to gain by investing in improving the curriculum (since more students
doesn’t mean more revenue). Meanwhile, students don’t demand better quality as
much as they would if they were paying for the education and needed to recoup
their investment. The experience of <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/05/2457829/reforms-institute-engineering-tribhuvan-university-nepal"><span style="color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Tribhuvan</span></a> University
in Nepal is instructive. When they started charging tuition fees in their
institute of engineering, the quality improved so much that they started
attracting students from all over South Asia. Moreover, the reforms spread to
the rest of the higher education sector in the country.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure, simply charging for higher education will not solve the
problems of universities in MENA. For one thing, poor people should still
be able to afford tertiary education, but this should be addressed by providing
means-tested scholarships, rather than an across-the-board subsidy that, as we
noted, the rich can take advantage of. For another, the transition needs to be
managed because such shifts are likely to elicit a political reaction. However,
the principle has to be that universities should be given incentives to invest
in higher quality education, and students should have an incentive to demand
higher quality instruction.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If we can bring about these two changes—a shift in the focus of higher
education away from public-sector jobs and a system of financing that aligns
incentives with quality—we can go a long way towards restoring the grandeur of
higher education in MENA. As I mentioned at the beginning, the whole world
owes the MENA region a huge debt for having created and nurtured university
education a millennium ago. It is time to repay that debt.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #343434; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="&lid={F5D3432A-2400-4D33-8C79-AB259F41D8"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Shanta Devarajan</span></b></a><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> is the Chief Economist, Middle East and
North Africa, World Bank<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<em><b><span style="background: white; color: #343434; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Note: This is an English version of the keynote
speech given by Shanta Devarajan at the recent MENA conference on “</span></b></em><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/05/2457829/reforms-institute-engineering-tribhuvan-university-nepal"><em><span style="background: white; color: #20558a; text-decoration: none;">Paradigm Shifts in Tertiary Education</span></em></a><em><span style="background: white; color: #343434;">” in Algiers on
May 30-June 2, 2016.</span></em></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-67855847882915537312015-12-11T05:43:00.003-08:002015-12-11T05:50:42.722-08:00Khamenei’s Counterrevolution Is Underway<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><i>Iranians thought the nuclear deal would spark a new relationship with
the West. But the supreme leader had other plans.</i><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 21.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; text-transform: uppercase;">BY Foreign
Policy </span></b><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 10.5pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;"><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/special-correspondent" title="Special Correspondent"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">SPECIAL
CORRESPONDENT</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 21.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #262526; font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; text-transform: uppercase;"> </span><img alt="Khamenei’s Counterrevolution Is Underway " height="153" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/gettyimages-485709856.jpg" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>President Hassan Rouhani walk in front of Khmanei's picture</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 21.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">It was, in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/post-reporter-at-grimmest-milestone-500-days-in-iranian-detention/2015/12/02/4bc2c542-98e2-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: windowtext; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">the words</span></a> of the <i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Washington Post</span></i>‘s
executive editor, Martin Baron, “the grimmest” of milestones. On Dec. 3, Jason
Rezaian, the newspaper’s Tehran correspondent, spent his 500th day in Evin
Prison. He has now been detained in the Iranian capital two months longer than
the 52 Americans who were held captive in the U.S. embassy by radical students
who stormed the building in 1979, heralding a revolution and the end of Iran’s
formal diplomatic relations with America.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For the moment at least, the prospect of Rezaian being freed appears
based more on hope than solid facts. There is no sign Iran’s judiciary, in
spite of last summer’s nuclear deal with the West, is softening its stance. If
anything, it has been sending strong indications that it will refuse to be
influenced by outside pressure. On Nov. 22, a judiciary spokesman in Tehran <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/post-correspondent-jason-rezaian-sentenced-to-prison-term-in-iran/2015/11/22/bfb5c112-912f-11e5-befa-99ceebcbb272_story.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: windowtext; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">confirmed</span></a> Rezaian had been convicted on charges of
espionage and that his punishment included jail time. The length of his prison
sentence was not disclosed; the offenses are thought to carry a maximum jail
term of 20 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Having first warned of foreign “infiltration” in September, Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took an even harsher line on Nov. 25. “There
is a deceitful, crafty, skillful, fraudulent, and devilish enemy,” he told
commanders of the Basij militia, a volunteer paramilitary force that takes
orders from the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. “Who is
that enemy? Arrogance. Of course today, the manifestation of arrogance is
America.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Khamenei went further, suggesting foreign investment and cultural
influences would be the first way the West would try to bring down Iran’s
Islamic system. “The most important means are two things: One is money and
another is sexual attraction,” he said, warning that Iran’s “decision-makers
and decision-builders” would be targeted by foreigners who want to change the
beliefs and lifestyle of Iran’s people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
comments are a world away from the pragmatism Khamenei showed in agreeing to
the nuclear deal just months ago. While the supreme leader seemingly
wanted a deal to end sanctions so that Iran could rejoin the global economy,
his actions since suggest he doesn’t want to upset loyal elites who have been
enriched in the past decade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Basij
commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi <a href="http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2462182.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">wasted little
time</span></a> in following the supreme leader’s cue. Two days after
Khamenei’s remarks, he claimed the United States had allocated $2 billion to
depose the regime in Tehran. He explicitly placed Secretary of State John
Kerry, the man with whom Iranian diplomats negotiated the nuclear deal, at the
center of the conspiracy. “Some $200 million out of this sum was given
personally to John Kerry,” he said. “Kerry has so far headed 34 projects to
depose the Islamic regime.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Both
Rezaian’s imprisonment and Naqdi’s allegations signal not only a split within
Iran’s political elite over its future relations with the United States, but
also a deeper divide between its politicians and long-suffering people. While
the religious power center of the Islamist establishment seems more vehement
than ever about the need to protect the principles of the 1979 revolution, many
of Iran’s technologically savvy young population shun the mosque and look
outward to the West for its entertainment and inspiration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">As
such, many are still leaving the country, convinced their hopes cannot be
realized. “I am not free,” said Golnaz, a 33-year-old MBA graduate who recently
moved to Canada to join a tech firm. Being friends with foreigners led to her
being followed and her emails being hacked. She believes President Hassan
Rouhani is trying his best, but, given the resistance he faces, it is not worth
the risk of continuing to waste years of her career.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Rouhani
and his top officials are caught in the middle between the people and the
regime. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif initially <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-message-of-irans-actions/2015/02/09/31992446-b07f-11e4-886b-c22184f27c35_story.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">said</span></a> that he hoped Rezaian would be found not guilty but has
since backed off that line when questioned about the reporter’s fate, probably
sensing the backlash in an increasingly abrasive domestic climate. “The charges
are serious and it’s a judiciary process,” Zarif <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/iran-trying-resolve-jason-rezaians-case-zarif-143907255.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">said</span></a> on Oct. 17, five days after the <i>Washington
Post</i> first reported Rezaian had been convicted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Rouhani,
meanwhile, has openly raised the possibility of a prisoner swap, thought to
involve at least three Americans, including Rezaian, for 19 Iranians convicted
of sanctions offenses in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">“If
the Americans take the appropriate steps and set them free, certainly the right
environment will be open and the right circumstances will be created for us to
do everything within our power and our purview to bring about the swiftest
freedom for the Americans held in Iran as well,” Rouhani <a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/irans-rouhani-proposes-prisoner-swap-us-590432564" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">said</span></a> of the 19 jailed Iranians at the U.N. General
Assembly in New York on Sept. 27.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">His
remarks, however, were followed by a sharp reminder at how little control he
apparently exerts over many of his country’s security institutions. Barely two
weeks later, the intelligence section of the Revolutionary Guards <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-american-hostage-in-iran-again" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">arrested</span></a> an Iranian-American businessman, Siamak Namazi,
at the home of relatives in Tehran. Around the same time it emerged that a
Lebanese IT expert with residency in the United States, Nizar Zakka, <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-iran-backlash-nuclear-rouhani-edit-1114-20151112-story.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">had disappeared</span></a> after a conference in the Iranian capital
a month earlier. Adding to Rouhani’s image of powerlessness, Zakka had been
invited to Tehran by the government. State television, a fiefdom of hardline
conservatives who operate under Khamenei’s authority, later said Zakka was
arrested for spying.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Namazi,
though long based in Dubai, is well known in Iran. His family’s Atieh Group had
strong business connections with the government during the presidency of
Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, from 1989 to 1997. Namazi also <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-american-executive-arrested-in-iran-1446164677" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">spoke out</span></a> in favor of better Iranian-American relations
and, while serving as a partner of Atieh’s Tehran consultancy, had advised
foreign companies on how to do business in the Islamic Republic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
latest arrests are another embarrassment for Rouhani who has made a major play
for foreign investment to rebuild Iran’s sanctions-ravaged economy. On Nov. 28,
more than 100 foreign companies in the oil industry, headed by Shell, BP,
Total, and Petronas, came to Tehran and heard Iran’s oil minister make a pitch
for $30 billion of investment. There was undoubtedly interest among the
visitors — but if the IRGC continue to arrest foreign businessmen, the
enthusiasm could quickly disappear.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">As
harsh as Khamenei’s remarks appear, a more optimistic interpretation is that
the government is willing to take symbolic actions that signal a staunch
anti-American stance — while in reality having no practical effect. On Nov. 5,
for instance, the Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade announced <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/22140-iran-bans-american-goods" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">it would ban</span></a> the import of all American consumer goods. A
push “to boost national production” was necessary instead, officials said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
announcement was greeted by laughter among many Iranians. “They are already
here,” Sara Ahmadi, a 30-year-old business executive, said of foreign brands,
pointing out that there are three Nike stores on one Tehran street alone. Those
shops, stuffed with clothing and exercise equipment bearing the famous “swoosh”
logo of the world’s largest sports manufacturer, feature genuine merchandise —
not the Chinese knock-offs sold in street markets in the capital. Several
of the massive malls that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/middleeast/lavish-malls-sprouting-up-to-attract-iranian-elite.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">have opened</span></a> in Tehran in recent years also have Nike
stores.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">But
it’s instructive that those malls were all built by companies linked to the
IRGC. Iran has had commerce in Western goods in recent years, but it has mostly
been restricted to regime loyalists. The hiked prices of the Nike goods on sale
in Tehran suggest they were smuggled in to the country, likely from Dubai or
Turkey, with the cooperation, whether tacit or explicit, of the Iranian regime.
The inflated prices for premium Western products also mean that only the
country’s economic elite, which overlaps strongly with its political elite, can
afford to buy them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">While
such contradictions perturb Iran’s rapidly aging clerical leadership, they
leave Rezaian and his fellow captives looking like bit part players in a much
bigger puzzle.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
nuclear deal may well have made the diplomatic deals struck in the past
considerably more difficult today. In 2010 and 2011, for instance, three
American hikers detained by Iran were freed after Oman brokered their release.
Then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had ordered them to be freed, only to be
temporarily thwarted when the judiciary cancelled their release.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Iranian
authorities, such as the IRGC and the judiciary, seem inclined to play the same
game with Rouhani. Even talk of a prisoner exchange in the aftermath of the
nuclear deal seems certain to provoke hard-liners dead set against any broader
opening toward the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">“To
the hard-liners that would look like another deal with America, and they don’t
want to send that signal,” said a Western diplomat in Tehran.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">The
growing list of people languishing in prison, including dozens of Iranian
nationals on political charges, continues to dent Rouhani’s “moderate”
reputation ahead of parliamentary elections in February next year, seen as a
crucial test of the president’s clout and his hopes of re-election in 2017.
Though most Iranians see the judiciary rather than Rouhani as the culprit, he
is a potential fall guy for the frustrated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">“The
government has been backed into a corner and, whatever they do, Rouhani and his
people face a problem in getting out of this mess that the judiciary has
created,” the diplomat said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">But
more hopeful Iranians say Rouhani retains public confidence and shouldn’t
buckle in the face of provocations from the most anti-Western elements of the
regime. If the hard-liners are routed in the February elections, Rouhani will
have a stronger mandate to pursue his agenda.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">“Ahmadinejad
and his cronies are not coming back,” a veteran political analyst said. “The
public mood has shifted and this is the hard-liners’ last hurrah. The worst
thing Rouhani could do would be to kowtow to them. But for now at least, none
of that helps Jason Rezaian.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">This article was published first by Foreign Policy
on 9/12/2015<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-83937247903797501472015-12-08T03:20:00.005-08:002015-12-08T03:23:40.025-08:00Lebanon's Deal with the Devil<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The
Prisoner Swap with Jabhat Al Nusra<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">By </span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/bilal-y-saab" title="More articles by Bilal Y. Saab">Bilal Y. Saab</a></span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<img alt="Al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front fighters carry their weapons near Lebanese soldiers and policemen during their release in Arsal, eastern Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, December 1, 2015. " height="226" src="https://files.foreignaffairs.com/styles/large-alt/s3/images/articles/2015/12/06/saab_lebaonsdealwithdevil_media.jpg?itok=ZEuyjF55" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="color: #63788c; line-height: 27.44px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front fighters carry their weapons near Lebanese soldiers and policemen during their release in Arsal, eastern Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, December 1, 2015. (REUTERS)</b></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">On <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>December
2, the Syrian branch of al Qaeda known as Jabhat Al Nusra freed 16 Lebanese
soldiers and policemen in exchange for the release of 29 Islamists and their
children, who were all imprisoned in<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/lebanon"><span style="color: #0a72ce;">Lebanon</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/syria" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0a72ce;">Syria</span></a>. Broadcast live on Lebanese and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/qatar"><span style="color: #0a72ce;">Qatari</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>satellite
television, the prisoner swap was a spectacle. More than that, its symbolism,
strategic significance, and regional ramifications were immediately the topic
of vigorous debate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">It didn’t take long for the Lebanese
to critique the transaction. As the freed hostages were hugging their parents
in Beirut upon their return, Lebanese commentators were already bemoaning the
“tragedy that had just transpired.” Politicians from all walks of life couldn’t
believe that their government had just completed a “deal with the devil.”
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, for example, called the episode a “sovereignty
scandal,” despite the fact that Hezbollah, with which Berri is allied, had an
active role in securing the deal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">A closer look at who got what
explains the general mood of anger and disillusionment among most
Lebanese. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Starting with the positives: First,
by getting back its men alive, Beirut communicated to the country’s military
that, no matter how long or how much it takes, it will not abandon Lebanese
soldiers when they are abducted. Whether Lebanese officers
will find comfort in their state’s performance is unclear,
though, since several of their comrades were slaughtered by the same terrorists
not too long ago. But this event’s happier ending might boost morale and
maintain the unity of an army that is overstretched and under equipped and that
is fighting terrorism day and night across the country, particularly along its
northern borders with Syria. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Second,
even though the events are still murky, the Lebanese authorities have claimed
that they refused to release any Islamist extremists from prison who have
blood on their hands or active terrorism cases against them. It is hard to
verify that without access to sensitive information, though.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Third,
and perhaps most important, the deal was a product, or a harbinger, of
political accommodation between rival Lebanese political factions, specifically
between the Shia Hezbollah and the Sunni Future Movement. Indeed, the swap
would have been impossible had Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and
Future Movement leader Saad Hariri not cooperated. For instance, Hariri flew to
Doha to persuade the Qataris, who acted as brokers throughout this 16-month
hostage crisis, that Abbas Ibrahim, chief Lebanese negotiator and head of the
country’s General Security Directorate, is someone worth trusting,
despite his strong support for Hezbollah.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Meanwhile,
Nasrallah convinced his ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to
release three women and nine children imprisoned in Syria that were on
Jabhat Al Nusra’s demand list (one of those women is Khalidiyya Hussain
Zeiniya, the sister of Abu Malek Al Talli, the group’s commander in the
Lebanese Qalamoun area). This moment of accord between Nasrallah and Hariri
could facilitate the election of a new Lebanese head of state after a year and
a half of political vacuum.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Yet this
outcome came with heavy costs. The sight of terrorists waving black al Qaeda
flags and operating in full military uniform with impunity on Lebanese soil and
in broad daylight was painful and humiliating for the Lebanese people. More
practically, by agreeing to the swap, the Lebanese state projected weakness, or
at the very least, sent the message that it is not opposed to doing business
with terrorists. That, in turn, could invite more kidnappings and longer lists
of demands. The <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/isis" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Islamic State (ISIS) </span></a>holds nine other Lebanese
soldiers and police members hostage; one wonders what Beirut would give up to
release them. ISIS, a larger and more powerful movement than Jabhat Al Nusra,
might be able to extract more from the Lebanese state should it decide to
negotiate. But beyond the popular astonishment and the fears over the price tag
of potential future terrorist deals, the Lebanese state’s inability to expel
Jabhat Al Nusra from Lebanese territory and end its control of the northern
town of Arsal is the clearest evidence of Lebanon’s failure to win in this
exchange what mattered most: the protection of sovereignty and territorial
integrity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">For its
part, in addition to the safe haven of Arsal, Jabhat al Nusra, might have also
benefited from creating an image of a terrorist group that is capable of
mercy and pragmatism in ways that ISIS is not. That reputation could help it
gain a political future in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">To be
sure, there were some costs and compromises for the group too, including the
failure to release hundreds of other high-profile extremists from the Lebanese
prison of Roumieh or to force Hezbollah to withdraw its men from Syrian
territory. But Jabhat Al Nusra knew that the latter demand was unrealistic and
the formal loss was tolerable, compared to what it was able to gain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">For a relatively small prisoner
swap, this deal’s complexity was remarkable, as evidenced by the number of
local, regional, and internationals players that were involved. Key to the
success of the deal was Qatar. In a previous article in<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><em>Foreign Affairs </em>called “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2014-07-30/dishonest-broker"><span style="color: #0a72ce;">The Dishonest Broker</span></a>,” I wrote about Qatar’s desire to cement its role
as a go-to mediator in the region. Its active involvement in this hostage
crisis, which Doha made sure to air live on its satellite channel Al Jazeera for
all the world to see, is the latest example of the small
country’s commitment to playing an oversized mediation role, despite
serious concerns by its neighbors about its real intentions. Yet regional
questions about Qatar’s good offices notwithstanding, the truth is that Western
countries, including the United States, find value in Doha’s access to some of
the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/middle-east" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0a72ce;">Middle East</span></a>’s bad actors. After all, if bombing terrorists
and adversaries fails, somebody has to facilitate talks. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">The level
of pragmatism that Doha displayed throughout the negotiations was notable.
Qatar and Hezbollah have a visceral and strategic disagreement over Syria—the
latter doing everything in its power to ensure Assad’s survival and the former
committing to his toppling—but it didn’t stop Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin
Hamad al Thani from cooperating with Nasrallah to secure the release of the
Lebanese hostages. Specifically, following instructions from Tamim, the Qatari
intelligence services convinced Jabhat Al Nusra leaders to refrain from upping
their demands in the final minutes of the negotiations and go for the
deal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">But
realpolitik wasn’t limited to Qatar and Hezbollah. <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/turkey"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Turkey</span></a>, which provided
logistical assistance by hosting talks on multiple occasions between lead
Lebanese negotiator and leaders of Jabhat Al Nusra under Qatari mediation,
agreed to receive some of the freed prisoners of the terrorist group. Russia
and the Syrian government, who have adversarial relations with Ankara, agreed
to a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Jabhat Al Nusra along the northern
borders. Iran implicitly blessed the deal through Ali Akbar Velayati, a top
advisor to the Supreme Leader who recently visited Beirut. And although <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/saudi-arabia"><span style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Saudi Arabia</span></a> did
not have a direct involvement in the swap, its controversial and surprising
approval of the nomination of Suleiman Franjieh as Lebanon’s new president,
despite his close personal friendship with Assad (whom Riyadh is committed to
deposing) and undeniable support for Hezbollah (which is suspected of killing
Rafik Hariri, Saudi Arabia's main man in Lebanon), contributed to the overall
de-escalation of tensions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Prisoner
swaps typically require compromises by both sides. But in this particular deal,
it must be said, Jabhat Al Nusra emerged as a winner. What’s tragic is that
Lebanon is not in a position to correct wrongs and retake what was lost.
The Lebanese army is incapable of dislodging all terrorists from the north
and Hezbollah, despite its tactical successes against Sunni extremists, is busy
securing its own areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut and fighting its
enemies on Syrian territory. Only the end of the Syrian conflict can
effectively neutralize the Sunni militant threat to Lebanon and
prevent another costly swap. That sworn adversaries momentarily set aside their
differences to achieve this latest deal offers hope, but it will take a much
bigger dose of pragmatism and compromise to reach a solution to the civil war
in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>
</i></span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><span dir="LTR"></span></i></span><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>This article was
published first by Foreign Affairs on 06/12/2015 </i></span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-90093148441057829052015-11-26T02:50:00.001-08:002015-11-26T02:53:26.546-08:00The Czar vs. the Sultan<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Putin and Erdogan see themselves as heirs to proud
empires. But fighter jets and tough talk can’t mask imperial decline.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div id="post-category" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 33.6px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0.5rem; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="color: #262526; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.5rem; text-transform: uppercase;">BY</span><span style="color: #262526; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.5rem; text-transform: uppercase;"> </span><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #262526; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="author" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="author" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/julia-ioffe" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Julia Ioffe">JULIA IOFFE</a></span></span></b></div>
<div id="post-category" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 33.6px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0.5rem; vertical-align: baseline;">
<img alt="The Czar vs. the Sultan " height="153" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/gettyimages-148508851.jpg" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin</b></i></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Before Crimea was
Russian, or Ukrainian, or even Soviet, it was Turkish. Well, Ottoman. And
Russia had already annexed Crimea once before 2014, long before — in 1783. This
was after a six-year war with the Turks, in which the Russians essentially
wiped out the Ottoman navy. The conflict ended with the Treaty of Kainardrji,
signed in 1774, which has come to be seen by historians as the first partition
of the Ottoman Empire, the beginning of its long, slow decline. In losing
Crimea to Russia, the Ottoman Empire, for the first time ever, lost Muslim
subjects to a Christian power. (The Crimean Tatars, who have been especially
opposed to Moscow’s newest takeover of the peninsula, are the vestigial limb
left behind by the Ottomans, bucking again at its new Russian owner — which
has, in turn, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/17/report-crimeas-tatars-targeted-since-russian-annexation/"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: windowtext; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">cracked down on them</span></a>.)
That war and the treaty that ended it, Bernard Lewis wrote some 200 years
later, was “the turning point in the relations between Europe and the Middle
East.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Nor would it be the
last time the Russians and the Turks butted heads. Over the next two centuries,
they would clash again and again as the Russian Empire pushed deeper and deeper
into the Ottoman heartland: the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Black Sea, and the
Dardanelles. One young Russian army officer wrote about his experiences
fighting the Turks, French, and British at Crimea, in 1854. The work, which
came to be called <i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">The Sevastopol Sketches</span></i>, was the
second the young man — Leo Tolstoy — ever published.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Which is all to say
that what happened yesterday, when the Turks and Russians clashed over who was
where when in the skies over a small sliver of land is nothing new in the
relations of these two erstwhile empires.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For that is what
they are. Both <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Turkey and Russia
have the hearts and souls of massive, multi-ethnic empires, hearts and souls
that still beat inside trunks shorn of their expansive limbs, limbs for which
they still hunger today. Both exist today as greatly diminished, regional
powers struggling to project greater influence — the kind that befits empires
and their histories. And, in doing so, they assume their old stances, as if
from muscle memory. “When you travel to Turkey, do you trust even one Turk?” <a href="https://www.facebook.com/maxim.kononenko.3/posts/1164928773535382" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">wrote</span></a> Maxim Kononenko, a prominent, pro-Kremlin blogger. “And
so it is with all those who spoke in Turkey’s name today. They are all Turks
and you cannot trust them.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Some Russians have
described yesterday’s shoot-down in larger historical terms: it is the first
time that there has been a real, military conflict between Russia and NATO, <a href="https://slon.ru/posts/60292" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">wrote</span></a> the liberal
Slon.ru. Russian officialdom, however, is framing this squarely as a conflict
between Russia and the hotheaded, trigger-happy Turks. Wednesday’s evening
news, dedicated almost exclusively to the incident, <a href="http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/296931" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">made much hay</span></a> out
of the fact that Washington and Europe, even NATO, spent all of Tuesday
chastising Turkey and throwing cold water on the idea that one plane and one
territorial incursion would lead to a wider conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">If anything, NATO
and the Europeans are the good guys in this interpretation of events —
certainly a first in recent Russian history. Why? Because Turkey, the villain
in this story, is trying to derail a grand, historic coalition against
terrorism, one that has Russia as its main axis. The de-escalation facilitated
by Western powers, the evening news report noted, “is needed so that this
conflict doesn’t harm the fight against terrorism in general and against ISIS
specifically.” That is, Russia sees itself as doing the work necessary to
protect the civilized world against the threat of terrorism, work that benefits
France, Britain, and the United States as much as it benefits Russia. (Left
unstated is the assumption that it doesn’t benefit Turkey, or its
Islamist-sympathizing government.) It is analogous to the way Russia has
portrayed its role in World War II, especially recently: Russia fought back the
menace of fascism for the good of the ungrateful West, which would have drowned
if not for Moscow’s help.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">This is why,
beneath the propaganda and cynical geopolitical maneuvering, Moscow finds
Western critiques about its role in Syria so deeply frustrating, insulting
even. To Russia, such complaints are as old as time, centuries-old efforts to
block Russian imperial ambitions at every possible turn for no apparent reason
— even to the point of lining up with the Muslim Ottomans against Christian Rus
in the mid-19th century. And, much to Russia’s chagrin, this constant Western
interference greatly slowed Russian imperial expansion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">At the same time,
Russia has historically viewed the Turks as a good buffer against European
expansion. “If we have allowed the Turkish government to continue to exist in
Europe, it is because that government, under the predominant influence of our
superiority, suits us better than any of those which could be set up on its
ruins,” wrote Karl Nesselrode, the Russian empire’s foreign minister, in 1830.
Sound familiar? The instinct for maintaining the stability of unsavory
neighboring powers, even as Russia slowly chips away at their peripheries, is
an old one, encoded deep in the Russian state psyche. These other powers exist,
in one form or another, as mirrors in which Russia can see itself as an empire,
and preen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">I mention all this
ancient history because the conflict over the Russian plane in Turkish airspace
— and, according to my sources in the U.S. government, it was in Turkish
airspace — is not about the plane, or the airspace, or the Islamic State, or
even NATO. It is about two empires, the Russian and the Ottoman, that continue
to violently disintegrate to this day, decades after they have formally ceased
to exist. Look at Ukraine and Moldova, look at Syria and Iraq. These are the
death throes of empire, the long tails of their legacies, shaking themselves
out as the rest of the world tries to contain and smooth the convulsions of
transition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">And it is about two
men, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, without much irony, see
themselves as heirs to the two mantles of these two long-gone empires. They, in
turn, have revived those empires in the minds of their subjects, constantly
dangling before their eyes the holograms of greatness past. It is no surprise,
then, that, as the number of actors and the potential for conflict has grown in
Syria, that the first flash of it would happen between two men who feel so
keenly their countries’ phantom limbs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;"><b><i>* This article was first published by Foreign Policy on 25/11/2015</i></b></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-43958743802270390822015-08-15T03:35:00.001-07:002015-08-15T03:48:29.542-07:00ISIS Enshrines A Theology Of Rape<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Claiming the Quran’s support, the Islamic State
codifies sex slavery in conquered regions of Iraq and Syria and uses the
practice as a recruiting tool.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Qadiya, Iraq -Rukimini Callimachi <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<img src="http://sheikyermami.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/B0A7kHYIUAIoJCS.jpg" height="270" width="400" /><br />
<span style="background-color: #f1f1f1; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16px;">Ibleesis with their sex-slaves:</span></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> In the moments before he raped
the 12-year-old girl, the Islamic State fighter took the time to explain that
what he was about to do was not a sin. Because the preteen girl practiced a
religion other than Islam, the Quran not only gave him the right to rape her —
it condoned and encouraged it, he insisted.</span></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">He bound her hands and gagged her. Then he
knelt beside the bed and prostrated himself in prayer before getting on top of
her.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">When it was over, he knelt to pray again,
bookending the rape with acts of religious devotion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“I kept telling him it hurts — please stop,”
said the girl, whose body is so small an adult could circle her waist with two
hands. “He told me that according to Islam he is allowed to rape an unbeliever.
He said that by raping me, he is drawing closer to God,” she said in an
interview alongside her family in a refugee camp here, to which she escaped
after 11 months of captivity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The systematic rape of women and girls from the Yazidi religious
minority has become deeply enmeshed in the organization and the radical
theology of the Islamic State in the year since the group announced it was
reviving slavery as an institution. Interviews with 21 women and girls who
recently escaped the Islamic State, as well as an examination of the group’s
official communications, illuminate how the practice has been enshrined in the
group’s core tenets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The trade in Yazidi women and girls has created a persistent
infrastructure, with a network of warehouses where the victims are held,
viewing rooms where they are inspected and marketed, and a dedicated fleet of
buses used to transport them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A total of 5,270 Yazidis were abducted last year, and at least 3,144 are
still being held, according to community leaders. To handle them, the Islamic
State has developed a detailed bureaucracy of sex slavery, including sales
contracts notarized by the ISIS-run Islamic courts. And the practice has become
an established recruiting tool to lure men from deeply conservative Muslim
societies, where casual sex is taboo and dating is forbidden.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A growing body of internal policy memos and theological discussions has
established guidelines for slavery, including a lengthy how-to manual issued by
the Islamic State Research and Fatwa Department just last month. Repeatedly,
the ISIS leadership has emphasized a narrow and selective reading of the Quran
and other religious rulings to not only justify violence, but also to elevate
and celebrate each sexual assault as spiritually beneficial, even virtuous.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“Every time that he came to rape me, he would pray,” said F, a
15-year-old girl who was captured on the shoulder of Mount Sinjar one year ago
and was sold to an Iraqi fighter in his 20s. Like some others interviewed by
The New York Times, she wanted to be identified only by her first initial
because of the shame associated with rape.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“He kept telling me this is ibadah</span><i style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">,” </i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">she said, using a term
from Islamic scripture meaning worship.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“He said that raping me is his
prayer to God. I said to him, ‘What you’re doing to me is wrong, and it will
not bring you closer to God.’ And he said, ‘No, it’s allowed. It’s halal,’ ”
said the teenager, who escaped in April with the help of smugglers after being
enslaved for nearly nine months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Calculated Conquest</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Islamic State’s formal introduction of
systematic sexual slavery dates to Aug. 3, 2014, when its fighters invaded the
villages on the southern flank of Mount Sinjar, a craggy massif of dun-colored
rock in northern Iraq.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Its valleys and ravines are home to the
Yazidis, a tiny religious minority who represent less than 1.5 percent of
Iraq’s estimated population of 34 million.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The offensive on the mountain came just two
months after the fall of Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq. At first, it
appeared that the subsequent advance on the mountain was just another attempt
to extend the territory controlled by Islamic State fighters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Almost immediately, there were signs that their
aim this time was different.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Survivors say that men and women were separated
within the first hour of their capture. Adolescent boys were told to lift up
their shirts, and if they had armpit hair, they were directed to join their
older brothers and fathers. In village after village, the men and older boys
were driven or marched to nearby fields, where they were forced to lie down in
the dirt and sprayed with automatic fire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The women, girls and children, however, were
hauled off in open-bed trucks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“The offensive on the mountain was as much a
sexual conquest as it was for territorial gain,” said Matthew Barber, a
University of Chicago expert on the Yazidi minority. He was in Dohuk, near
Mount Sinjar, when the onslaught began last summer and helped create<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="http://www.yazda.org/"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">a foundation</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">that provides psychological support for the escapees, who number
more than 2,000, according to community activists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Fifteen-year-old F says her family of nine was
trying to escape, speeding up mountain switchbacks, when their aging Opel
overheated. She, her mother, and her sisters — 14, 7, and 4 years old — were
helplessly standing by their stalled car when a convoy of heavily armed Islamic
State fighters encircled them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“Right away, the fighters separated the men
from the women,” she said. She, her mother and sisters were first taken in
trucks to the nearest town on Mount Sinjar. “There, they separated me from my
mom. The young, unmarried girls were forced to get into buses.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The buses were white, with a painted stripe
next to the word “Hajj,” suggesting that the Islamic State had commandeered
Iraqi government buses used to transport pilgrims for the annual pilgrimage to
Mecca. So many Yazidi women and girls were loaded inside F’s bus that they were
forced to sit on each other’s laps, she said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Once the bus headed out, they noticed that the
windows were blocked with curtains, an accouterment that appeared to have been
added because the fighters planned to transport large numbers of women who were
not covered in burqas or head scarves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">F’s account, including the physical description
of the bus, the placement of the curtains and the manner in which the women were
transported, is echoed by a dozen other female victims interviewed for this
article. They described a similar set of circumstances even though they were
kidnapped on different days and in locations miles apart.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">F says she was driven to the
Iraqi city of Mosul some six hours away, where they herded them into the Galaxy
Wedding Hall. Other groups of women and girls were taken to a palace from the
Saddam Hussein era, the Badoosh prison compound and the Directory of Youth
building in Mosul, recent escapees said. And in addition to Mosul, women were
herded into elementary schools and municipal buildings in the Iraqi towns of
Tal Afar, Solah, Ba’aj and Sinjar City. </span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">They would be held in confinement, some for
days, some for months. Then, inevitably, they were loaded into the same fleet
of buses again before being sent in smaller groups to Syria or to other
locations inside Iraq, where<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000003226608/isis-slave-market-day.html"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">they were bought and sold for sex</span></a><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“It was 100 percent preplanned,” said Khider
Domle, a Yazidi community activist who maintains a detailed database of the
victims. “I spoke by telephone to the first family who arrived at the Directory
of Youth in Mosul, and the hall was already prepared for them. They had
mattresses, plates and utensils, food and water for hundreds of people.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Detailed reports by<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/04/14/iraq-isis-escapees-describe-systematic-rape" title="Human Rights Watch report"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Human Rights Watch</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">and<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/12/iraq-yezidi-women-and-girls-face-harrowing-sexual-violence/" title="Amnesty International report"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Amnesty International</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">reach the same conclusion about the organized nature of the sex
trade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In each location, survivors say Islamic State
fighters first conducted a census of their female captives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Inside the voluminous Galaxy banquet hall, F
sat on the marble floor, squeezed between other adolescent girls. In all she
estimates there were over 1,300 Yazidi girls sitting, crouching, splayed out
and leaning against the walls of the ballroom, a number that is confirmed by
several other women held in the same location.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">They each described how three Islamic State
fighters walked in, holding a register. They told the girls to stand. Each one
was instructed to state her first, middle and last name, her age, her hometown,
whether she was married, and if she had children.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For two months, F was held inside the Galaxy
hall. Then one day, they came and began removing young women. Those who refused
were dragged out by their hair, she said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In the parking lot the same fleet of Hajj buses
was waiting to take them to their next destination, said F. Along with 24 other
girls and young women, the 15-year-old was driven to an army base in Iraq. It
was there in the parking lot that she heard the word “sabaya<em><span style="color: #333333;">”</span></em><span class="apple-converted-space"><i><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></i></span>for
the first time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“They laughed and jeered at us, saying ‘You are
our sabaya.’ I didn’t know what that word meant,” she said. Later on, the local
Islamic State leader explained it meant slave.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“He told us that Taus Malik” — one of seven
angels to whom the Yazidis pray — “is not God. He said that Taus Malik is the
devil and that because you worship the devil, you belong to us. We can sell you
and use you as we see fit.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Islamic State’s sex trade appears to be
based solely on enslaving women and girls from the Yazidi minority. As yet,
there has been no widespread campaign aimed at enslaving women from other
religious minorities, said Samer Muscati, the author of the recent Human Rights
Watch report. That assertion was echoed by community leaders, government
officials and other human rights workers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Mr. Barber, of the University of Chicago, said
that the focus on Yazidis was likely because they are seen as polytheists, with
an oral tradition rather than a written scripture. In the Islamic State’s eyes
that puts them on the fringe of despised unbelievers, even more than Christians
and Jews, who are considered to have some limited protections under the Quran
as “People of the Book.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In Kojo, one of the southernmost villages on
Mount Sinjar and among the farthest away from escape, residents decided to
stay, believing they would be treated as the<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iraq-turmoil/has-last-christian-left-iraqi-city-mosul-after-2-000-n164856" title="NBC News report"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Christians of Mosul<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">had months earlier.
On Aug. 15, 2014, the Islamic State ordered the residents to report to a school
in the center of town.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">When she got there, 40-year-old Aishan Ali
Saleh found a community elder negotiating with the Islamic State, asking if
they could be allowed to hand over their money and gold in return for safe
passage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The fighters initially agreed and laid out a
blanket, where Ms. Saleh placed her heart-shaped pendant and her gold rings,
while the men left crumpled bills.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Instead of letting them go, the fighters began
shoving the men outside, bound for death.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Sometime later, a fleet of cars arrived and the
women, girls and children were driven away.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Market</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Months later, the Islamic State made clear in
their online magazine that their campaign of enslaving Yazidi women and girls
had been extensively preplanned.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“Prior to the taking of Sinjar, Shariah
students in the Islamic State were tasked to research the Yazidis,” said the
English-language article, headlined “The Revival of Slavery Before the Hour,”
which appeared in the October issue of Dabiq.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The article made clear that for the Yazidis,
there was no chance to pay a tax known as jizya to be set free, “unlike the
Jews and Christians.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> “After
capture, the Yazidi women and children were then divided according to the
Shariah amongst the fighters of the Islamic State who participated in the
Sinjar operations, after one fifth of the slaves were transferred to the
Islamic State’s authority to be divided” as spoils, the article said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In much the same way as specific Bible passages
were used centuries later to support the slave trade in the United States, the
Islamic State cites specific verses or stories in the Quran or else in the
Sunna, the traditions based on the sayings and deeds of the Prophet Muhammad,
to justify their human trafficking, experts say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Scholars of Islamic theology disagree, however,
on the proper interpretation of these verses, and on the divisive question of
whether Islam actually sanctions slavery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Many argue that slavery figures in Islamic
scripture in much the same way that it figures in the Bible — as a reflection
of the period in antiquity in which the religion was born.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“In the milieu in which the Quran arose, there
was a widespread practice of men having sexual relationships with unfree
women,” said Kecia Ali, an associate professor of religion at Boston University
and the author of a book on slavery in early Islam. “It wasn’t a particular
religious institution. It was just how people did things.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Cole Bunzel, a scholar of Islamic theology at
Princeton University, disagrees, pointing to the numerous references to the
phrase “Those your right hand possesses” in the Quran, which for centuries has
been interpreted to mean female slaves. He also points to the corpus of Islamic
jurisprudence, which continues into the modern era and which he says includes
detailed rules for the treatment of slaves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“There is a great deal of scripture that
sanctions slavery,” said Mr. Bunzel, the author of a research paper published
by the Brookings Institution on the ideology of the Islamic State. “You can
argue that it is no longer relevant and has fallen into abeyance. ISIS would
argue that these institutions need to be revived, because that is what the
Prophet and his companions did.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The youngest, prettiest women and girls were
bought in the first weeks after their capture. Others — especially older,
married women — described how they were transported from location to location,
spending months in the equivalent of human holding pens, until a prospective
buyer bid on them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Their captors appeared to have a system in
place, replete with its own methodology of inventorying the women, as well as
their own lexicon. Women and girls were referred to as “Sabaya,” followed by
their name. Some were bought by wholesalers, who photographed and gave them
numbers, to advertise them to potential buyers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Osman Hassan Ali, a Yazidi businessman who has
successfully smuggled out numerous Yazidi women, said he posed as a buyer in
order to be sent the photographs. He shared a dozen images, each one showing a
Yazidi woman sitting in a bare room on a couch, facing the camera with a blank,
unsmiling expression. On the edge of the photograph is written in Arabic,
“Sabaya No. 1,” “Sabaya No. 2,” and so on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Buildings where the women were collected and
held sometimes included a viewing room.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“When they put us in the building, they said we
had arrived at the ‘Sabaya Market,’” said one 19-year-old victim, whose first
initial is I. “I understood we were now in a slave market.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">She estimated there were at least 500 other
unmarried women and girls in the multistory building, with the youngest among
them being 11. When the buyers arrived, the girls were taken one by one into a
separate room.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“The emirs sat against the wall and called us
by name. We had to sit in a chair facing them. You had to look at them, and
before you went in, they took away our scarves and anything we could have used
to cover ourselves,” she said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“When it was my turn, they made me stand four
times. They made me turn around.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The captives were also forced to answer
intimate questions, including reporting the exact date of their last menstrual
cycle. They realized that the fighters were trying to determine whether they
were pregnant, in keeping with a Shariah rule stating that a man cannot have
intercourse with his slave if she is pregnant.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Property of ISIS</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The use of sex slavery by the Islamic State
initially surprised even the group’s most ardent supporters, many of whom
sparred with journalists online after the first reports of systematic rape.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Islamic State’s leadership has repeatedly
sought to justify the practice to its internal audience.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">After the initial article in Dabiq in October,
the issue came up in the publication again this year, in an editorial in May
that expressed the writer’s hurt and dismay at the fact that some of the
group’s own sympathizers had questioned the institution of slavery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“What really alarmed me was that some of the
Islamic State’s supporters started denying the matter as if the soldiers of the
Khilafah had committed a mistake or evil,” the author wrote. “I write this
while the letters drip of pride,’’ he said. “We have indeed raided and captured
the kafirahwomen and drove them like sheep by the edge of the sword.” Kafirah
refers to infidels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In a pamphlet<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></span></span><a href="http://www.memrijttm.org/islamic-state-isis-releases-pamphlet-on-female-slaves.html" title="ISIS publication"><span style="color: #326891; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">published online</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">in December, the Research and Fatwa Department of the Islamic State
detailed best practices, including explaining that slaves belong to the estate
of the fighter who bought them and therefore can be willed to another man and
disposed of just like any other property after his death.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Recent escapees describe an intricate
bureaucracy surrounding their captivity, with their status as a slave
registered in a contract. When their owner would sell them to another buyer, a
new contract would be drafted, like transferring a property deed. At the same
time, slaves can also be set free, and fighters are promised a heavenly reward
for doing so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Though rare, this has created one avenue of
escape for victims.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A 25-year-old victim who escaped last month,
identified by her first initial, A, described how one day her Libyan master
handed her a laminated piece of paper. He explained that he had finished his
training as a suicide bomber and was planning to blow himself up, and was therefore
setting her free.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Labeled a “Certificate of Emancipation,” the
document was signed by the judge of the western province of the Islamic State.
The Yazidi woman presented it at security checkpoints as she left Syria to
return to Iraq, where she rejoined her family in July.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Islamic State recently made it clear that
sex with Christian and Jewish women captured in battle is also permissible,
according to a new 34-page manual issued this summer by the terror group’s
Research and Fatwa Department.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Just about the only prohibition is having sex
with a pregnant slave, and the manual describes how an owner must wait for a
female captive to have her menstruating cycle, in order to “make sure there is
nothing in her womb,” before having intercourse with her. Of the 21 women and
girls interviewed for this article, among the only ones who had not been raped
were the women who were already pregnant at the moment of their capture, as
well as those who were past menopause.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Beyond that, there appears to be no bounds to what
is sexually permissible. Child rape is explicitly condoned: “It is permissible
to have intercourse with the female slave who hasn’t reached puberty, if she is
fit for intercourse,” according to a translation by the Middle East Media
Research Institute of a pamphlet published on Twitter last December.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">One 34-year-old Yazidi woman, who was bought and repeatedly raped by a
Saudi fighter in the Syrian city of Shadadi, described how she fared better
than the second slave in the household — a 12-year-old girl who was raped for
days on end despite heavy bleeding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“He destroyed her body. She was badly infected. The fighter kept coming
and asking me, ‘Why does she smell so bad?’ And I said, she has an infection on
the inside, you need to take care of her,” the woman said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Unmoved, he ignored the girl’s agony, continuing the ritual of praying
before and after raping the child.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“I said to him, ‘She’s just a little girl,’ ” the older woman recalled.
“And he answered: ‘No. She’s not a little girl. She’s a slave. And she knows
exactly how to have sex.’ ’’<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“And having sex with her pleases God,” he said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><i>-This article was published by the NEW YORK TIMES on the 14th of August 2015</i></b></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-81004648974204765812014-07-14T03:07:00.001-07:002014-07-14T03:07:09.678-07:00Gaza Situation Report<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">By <span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/about/analysts/dr-george-friedman#axzz35Tuxr4lS">George
Friedman</a></span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<img height="299" src="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTUvmF8YaOfhnKw9Lunwlt7toa7Kd2VmnQzhaLyamWvImJd89eUjw" width="400" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
Nothing left...only the flag!!!</div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 13.5pt;">The current confrontation in Gaza began July 12 after three Israeli
teenagers disappeared in the West Bank the month before. Israel announced
the disappearance June 13, shortly thereafter placing blame on Hamas
for the kidnappings. On June 14, Hamas fired three rockets into the Hof
Ashkelon region. This was followed by Israeli attacks on Palestinians in
the Jerusalem region. On July 8, the Israelis announced Operation
Protective Edge and began calling up reservists. Hamas launched a longer-range
rocket at Tel Aviv. Israel then increased its airstrikes against targets
in Gaza.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">At this point, it would appear that Israel has deployed sufficient force
to be ready to conduct an incursion into Gaza. However, Israel has not done so
yet. The conflict has consisted of airstrikes and some
special operations forces raids by Israel and rocket launches by
Hamas against targets in Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">From a purely military standpoint, the issue has been Hamas's search for
a deterrent to Israeli operations against Gaza. Operation Cast Lead in late
2008 and early 2009 disrupted Gaza deeply, and Hamas found itself without any
options beyond attempts to impose high casualties on Israeli forces. But the
size of the casualties in Cast Lead did not prove a deterrent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Hamas augmented its short-range rocket arsenal with much longer-range
rockets. The latest generation of rockets it has acquired can reach the
population center of Israel: the triangle of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa.
However, these are rockets, not missiles. That means they have no guidance
system, and their point of impact once launched is a matter of chance. Given
these limits, Hamas hoped having a large number of rockets of different ranges
would create the risk of substantial Israeli civilian casualties, and that that
risk would deter Israel from action against Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The threat posed by the rockets was in fact substantial. According to
senior Israeli Air Force officers quoted on the subject, Israel lacked
intelligence on precisely where the rockets were stored and all the sites from
which they might be launched. Gaza is honeycombed with a complex of tunnels,
many quite deep. This limits intelligence. It also limits the ability of
Israeli airborne munitions from penetrating to their storage area and
destroying them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Israeli objective is to destroy Hamas' rocket capacity. Israel
ideally would like to do this from the air, but while some can be
destroyed from the air, and from special operations, it appears the Israelis
lack the ability to eliminate the threat. The only solution would be a
large-scale assault on Gaza designed to occupy it such that a full-scale search
for the weapons and their destruction on the ground would be possible. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Hamas has been firing rockets to convince the Israelis that they have
enough to increase casualties in the triangle if they choose to. The
Israelis must in fact assume that an assault on Gaza would in its earliest
stages result in a massive barrage, especially since Hamas would be in a
"use-it-or-lose-it" position. Hamas hopes this will deter an Israeli
attack.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Thus far, Israel has restrained its attack beyond airstrikes. The extent
to which the fear of massed rocketry was the constraining factor is not clear.
Certainly, the Israelis are concerned that Hamas is better prepared for an
attack than it was during Cast Lead, and that its ability to use anti-tank
missiles against Israel's Merkava tanks and improvised explosive devices
against infantry has evolved. Moreover, the occupation of Gaza would be costly
and complex. It would take perhaps weeks to search for rockets and in that
time, Israeli casualties would mount. When the political consequences,
particularly in Europe, of such an attack were added to this calculus, the
ground component of Protective Edge was put off.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">As mentioned, a major issue for the Israelis is the intelligence factor.
It is said that Iran provided Hamas with these rockets via smuggling routes
through Sudan. It is hard to imagine the route these weapons would take such
that Israeli (and American) intelligence would not detect them on their
thousand-plus mile transit, and that they would move into Gaza in spite of
Israeli and Egyptian hostile watchfulness. Even if Iran didn't provide the
weapons, and someone else did, the same question would arise.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The failure of the Israelis to detect and interdict the movement of
rockets or rocket parts has an immediate effect on the confidence with which
senior Israeli commanders and political leaders calculate their
course. Therefore, to this point, there has been a stalemate, with what we
assume is a small fraction of Hamas' rockets being fired, and limited
operations against Gaza. The ground operation is being held in check for now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">It is interesting that there have been few public attempts to mediate
between Hamas and Israel, and that the condemnation of violence and calls for
peace have been more perfunctory than usual. Last week, reports emerged of
Turkish and Qatari attempts to negotiate a solution. U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry also reportedly contacted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
on Sunday, offering assistance in mediating a truce. Meanwhile, high-ranking
diplomats from the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany
discussed truce efforts on the sidelines of talks on Iran. These efforts may
explain Israeli reluctance to attack, or provide a justification for not
carrying out an attack that Israel might see as too risky.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The problem for Israel in any cease-fire is that it would keep the
current status quo in place. Hamas would retain its rockets, and might be able
to attain more advanced models. Israel was not able to stop the influx of this
load, so Israel can't be confident that it can stop the next. A cease-fire is a
victory for Hamas because they have retained their rocket force and have the
potential to increase it. But for Israel, if it assumes that it cannot absorb
the cost of rooting out all of the rockets (assuming that is possible) then a
cease-fire brings it some political benefits without having to take too many
risks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">At this moment, we know for certain that Israel is bombing Gaza and has
amassed a force sufficient to initiate ground operations but has not done so.
Hamas has not fired a saturation attack, assuming it could, but has forced
Israel to assume that such an attack is possible, and that its Iron Dome
defensive system would be overwhelmed by the numbers. The next move is
Israel's. We can assume there are those in the Israeli command authority
arguing that the Gaza rockets will be fired at some point, and must be
eliminated now, and others arguing that without better intelligence the
likelihood of casualties and of triggering a saturation launch is too
high. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">We have no idea who will win the argument, if there is one, but right
now, Israel is holding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 13.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><b><i><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This analysis was published first by Stratfor Global Intelligence on
14/07/2014.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<b><i><span style="background: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">* George Friedman is the Chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in
1996 that is now a leader in the field of global intelligence. Friedman guides
Stratfor’s strategic vision and oversees the development and training of the
company’s intelligence unit.</span></i></b></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-13500546383484450432014-07-11T03:28:00.003-07:002014-07-11T03:28:42.408-07:00The Resurrection of Ahmad Chalabi<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i><b>The man who helped convince the United States to invade Iraq has spent
the last decade in the political wilderness. But now, with his country in
chaos, he could be its next leader.<o:p></o:p></b></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i><b><br /></b></i></span></div>
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<i><b><span style="color: #262526; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;">BY </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;">JANE ARRAF from Baghdad</span></b></i><span style="color: #262526; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;"><br /></span></b></i></div>
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<img height="186" src="http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/imagecache/860x/images/h_00586905_chalabi2.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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<b>Ahmad Chalab</b>i</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Outside the steel doors and high walls of what was once a country estate
on the outskirts of Baghdad, trash is piled along dusty streets marked with
concrete blast barriers. In large swaths of the country, Sunni fighters intent
on erasing Iraq's borders to create a sweeping Islamic state battle Iraqi
soldiers and Shiite militiamen. Inside, in the more refined world he has willed
into being, Ahmad Chalabi ponders his political resurrection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"The politicians believe this is business as usual -- it is
not," he says in an interview with <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Foreign
Policy</span>, while leaning back in the embrace of a Danish-designed chair
made in Baghdad from the reclaimed teak doors of old houses. "Iraq has
never faced dissolution since its creation until now. This is the first time
Iraq faces dissolution on two fronts -- the Kurds and the Sunnis."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Chalabi is dressed in a black T-shirt, black parachute pants, and black
suede shoes with no socks. He sits surrounded by Iraqi paintings -- at
Baghdad's declining number of art galleries, his purchases alone help keep some
artists afloat. In the garden in the evening, fans with water reservoirs spray
a cooling, rose-scented mist. He is renovating his swimming pool, where
neoconservative American officials used to swim when he was still a darling of
President George W. Bush's administration. Now, the U.S. Embassy across town is
evacuating its nonessential staff, and the remaining Foreign Service officers
aren't allowed even to cross the street.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To many in the West, Chalabi, 69, is still the political operator who
convinced the Bush administration that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had
weapons of mass destruction, paving the way for the U.S.-led invasion of the
country. But inside an Iraq dangerously on the verge of splintering, that
invasion is almost ancient history. After almost a decade of being sidelined,
the man who could not win a seat in parliament in 2005 and whose name once
inspired insults scrawled on Baghdad walls has emerged as a serious contender
to replace Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In fact, he believes he can save Iraq. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"The facts, you see, add cumulatively to my credibility with all
sections of society," he says. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">"These
people proposing me to be prime minister -- [they are] not only among the
Shiites but among the Sunnis and the Kurds."</span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Those "facts," as Chalabi sees them, are a proven record of
reducing government corruption and the economic qualifications to repair Iraq's
bleeding economy. Now, he has his sights set on crushing the Islamic State --
formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), a jihadist organization
that has recently seized vast areas of territory in the north and west of the
country. To do that, he says the government needs to mend ties with the
country's Sunni community.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"The way to defeat ISIS, in my view the only way, is first of all
-- after a good government is formed -- you have to issue a law of national
reconciliation to win over the Sunnis in a serious way."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In June, Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul, fell to ISIS, which
rebranded itself as the Islamic State and declared the creation of a caliphate.
With the Sunni jihadists on their doorstep, Iraqi political leaders are still
wrangling over who will form a new government after elections in April. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">One of
the only things they seem to agree on is that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
should not be given a third term in office.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Chalabi, a secular Shiite, has not been wasting his time while in the
political wilderness. In the past decade, he has forged strong ties with
hard-line Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, as well as the major Kurdish factions
and key Sunni leaders. Close to Iran and apparently now tolerated by the United
States, he has emerged as perhaps the ultimate compromise candidate in a
country fatally lacking in political compromise.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Part of Chalabi's proposed reconciliation would be reviewing the cases
of thousands of prisoners, most of them Sunnis, who have been arrested under
sweeping anti-terrorism laws and held in jail without charge, or long past
orders for their release. Chalabi says he would also appoint a judicial
committee to review cases where people have been sentenced on the basis of
coerced confessions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Then he would turn his attention to Iraq's bleeding economy and combat
corruption. The former banker proposes a team of forensic auditors -- perhaps
headed by the American former special inspector for Iraq reconstruction, Stuart
Bowen -- to review contracts and contracting procedures in order to reduce
Iraq's staggering corruption. Chalabi also points to his experience in
government in 2005, when he says he exposed a $1.2 billion contracting <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/20/iraq.michaelhoward" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">scandal</span></a> and proposed a committee to oversee large
contracts. "For one year there was not one instance of corruption in the
entire contracting process of the Iraqi government," he says -- a claim
difficult to verify.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Perhaps one of the most dramatic aims of a man inextricably associated
with laws punishing former Baath party members would be to<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"> </span>roll back de-Baathification, which he now argues has
been perverted from its original purpose of dismantling Saddam's party
institutions to being used as retribution for political purposes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"It became the common wisdom that Sunnis hate me because of this de-Baathification,"
Chalabi says. But given the even harsher crackdown that followed his departure,
he claims, "They are having nostalgia about de-Baathification."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">* * *<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">But
before Chalabi turns to the future,</span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> he has a litany of grievances
against those he believes have wronged him in the past. While several former
Bush administration officials <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/defense/former-bush-advisers-back-chalabi-for-prime-minister-of-iraq-20140707" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">still champion</span></a> his political ambitions, top on his list
of adversaries is the man the United States appoint to lead the occupation
authority following the 2003 invasion: Paul Bremer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"Bremer never liked me from the beginning," Chalabi says,
blaming a<a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1045618929479876383" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">2003 editorial</span></a> he published in the <i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Wall Street Journal</span></i>, in which he thanked the United
States for toppling Saddam Hussein but warned it against staying in Iraq. He
blames the United States -- and U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi -- of excluding him
from Ayad Allawi's interim government, formed in 2004.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Chalabi, who was paid by the CIA for six years as part of a futile
covert effort to topple Saddam Hussein, also bats away claims that he was
responsible for the incorrect intelligence about the Iraqi regime's purported
WMD stockpiles. He says his role was limited to putting informants in touch
with the CIA for the agency to evaluate on its own. A congressionally appointed
committee <a href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/pagedetails.action?granuleId=&packageId=GPO-WMD&fromBrowse=true" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">discounted</span></a> his connection to the now-discredited source
known as "Curveball," later identified as Iraqi defector Rafid Ahmed
Alwan al-Janabi, whose claim that Saddam was operating mobile biological
weapons laboratories was used by the Bush administration to publicly make the
case for war. Chalabi says the widespread claim in the media of his connection
to Janabi was payback for ruffling feathers at the State Department and White
House.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"What happened is that the narrative of war that Bush based his
plan on fell apart," he says. "Who is at fault? I am. It's an easy
target -- a foreigner in Iraq who did things in Washington with questionable
methods whom they didn't like. It's easy."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">However, Chalabi is still happy to take credit for his key role in
bringing the United States to Iraq. After being cut loose by the CIA, he went
to Washington in 1997 to lobby Congress to back attempts to overthrow Saddam. A
year later, the Iraqi Liberation Act, which made it U.S. policy to support
regime change, was signed into law.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"The main thing we did was we made the Iraq issue an American
political issue inside the United States," Chalabi says. "Of course
this gets me great ill will with the American bureaucrats, so every chance they
get, they dump on me."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">* * *<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">Even
by the mercurial standards of Iraqi politics, Chalabi has had a dramatic
ride.</span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> Less
than a year after the beginning of the war, he was given a privileged seat near
first lady Laura Bush at President Bush's 2004 State of the Union address. Four
months later, U.S. Special Forces raided his office following accusations that
he sent sensitive files to Iran and forged currency with plates stolen from the
Iraqi mint. The charges were later dropped. He is still, however, sentenced in
absentia to prison with hard labor in Jordan, where he is held responsible for
the collapse of the kingdom's second-largest bank in 1989. Chalabi maintains he
was made the scapegoat for that collapse.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The passage of the years has not managed to erase everyone's suspicions
about him. As one former Western diplomat who has dealt with him put it,
"I think [Chalabi's new popularity] is part of Iraq's long slide into the
abyss."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">But Chalabi believes that recent events have validated his decision in
the years following the invasion -- much bemoaned in Washington at the time --
to pursue cooperation with Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"Are they not cooperating with Iran?" Chalabi says of the
United States. "Are they not accepting Iranian interference in the war
against ISIS? Why was that a bad thing to do in 2003 to 2004 and why is it a
great thing now? Who was right and who was wrong?"<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">During his years out of political power, Chalabi launched a sort of
economic salon -- twice-weekly seminars bringing together technical experts to
thrash out economic and political issues -- that has burnished his credentials
as a technocrat able to rise above sectarian issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In what was once a grain cellar for his family's ancestral farm -- and
is now lined with gleaming-white concrete and outfitted with a stage and
audiovisual system amid the abstract art -- a rotating cast of academics,
policy makers, and industrialists still gathers for discussions of issues such
as the role of the central bank, how to revive industry, and how to combat
corruption.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Chalabi mostly listens -- as he has been listening for the past decade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"Every week he meets tens if not hundreds of technocrats and
academics, and he tries to find the right people," says an independent
Iraqi analyst who has attended his seminars and, like many, describes him as
"brilliant."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"When the Americans turned against him, he became alone -- he was
only respected by the Kurds," says the analyst. "Everybody was ignoring
him, so he used that in a very clever way -- he did not want to become a
puppet. I think he knows the only way to have his star shine is when there is
nationwide disagreement."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Chalabi, perhaps disingenuously, says he isn't seeking the prime minister's
job.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">"What's the point if there's no plan?" he asks. "To put
Iraq back together is very difficult. The points of this plan will be opposed
violently by some Shiites because their concept is they are in power.... But we
can't conquer Sunni lands with Shiite militias. That's one thing we need -- a
plan to stitch Iraq back together."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">With Iraq unraveling and after a decade waiting in the wings, this might
be Chalabi's chance to implement that plan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"></span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span> <b><i> * This report was published
first in Foreign Policy on 10/07/2014<o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><b><i><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> * </span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span>Jane Arraf was the CNN’s Baghdad
bureau chief after the American invasion of Iraq</i></b><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-40654088802613309262014-06-13T04:04:00.001-07:002014-06-15T11:43:35.720-07:00The Battle For Iraq Is A Saudi War On Iran<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Why the ISIS
invasion of Iraq is really a war between Shiites and Sunnis for control of the
Middle East.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 27.75pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="color: #262526; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;">BY</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; text-transform: uppercase;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: windowtext; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/profiles/Simon-Henderson">SIMON HENDERSON</a></span><span style="color: #262526;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 27.75pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<img src="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/imagecache/860x/images/460755645crop.jpg" height="208" style="line-height: 27.75pt;" width="400" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 27.75pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Be careful what you
wish for" could have been, and perhaps should have been, Washington's
advice to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states that have been supporting Sunni
jihadists against Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus. The warning is even
more appropriate today as the bloodthirsty fighters of the Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) sweep through northwest Iraq, prompting hundreds of
thousands of their Sunni coreligionists to flee and creating panic in Iraq's
Shiite heartland around Baghdad, whose population senses, correctly, that it
will be shown no mercy if the ISIS motorcades are not stopped.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Such a setback for
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been the dream of Saudi Arabia's King
Abdullah for years. He has regarded Maliki as little more than an Iranian
stooge, refusing to send an ambassador to Baghdad and instead encouraging his
fellow rulers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -- Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar,
the United Arab Emirates, and Oman -- to take a similar standoff-ish approach.
Although vulnerable to al Qaeda-types at home, these countries (particularly
Kuwait and Qatar) have often turned a blind eye to their citizens funding radical
groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, one of the most active Islamist groups opposed to
Assad in Syria. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Currently on
vacation in Morocco, King Abdullah has so far been silent on these
developments. At 90-plus years old, he has shown no wish to join the Twitter generation,
but the developments on the ground could well prompt him to cut short his stay
and return home. He has no doubt realized that -- with his policy of delivering
a strategic setback to Iran by orchestrating the overthrow of Assad in Damascus
showing little sign of any imminent success -- events in Iraq offer a new
opportunity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This perspective may
well confuse many observers. In recent weeks, there has been a flurry of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/05/what-saudi-iranian-rapprocheme-2014521112931887464.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">reports</span></a> of an emerging -- albeit reluctant --<a href="http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-slowly-softening-its-iran-approach-1.1336252" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">diplomatic rapprochement</span></a> between the Saudi-led GCC and
Iran, bolstered by the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sX1WxJ9u0s" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">apparently drunken visit</span></a> to
Tehran by the emir of Kuwait, and visits by <a href="http://www.qna.org.qa/en-us/News/14061102050046/HE-Minister-of-Economy-Meets-Iranian-Minister-of-Economic-Affairs" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">trade delegations</span></a> and <a href="http://www.tehrantimes.com/economy-and-business/116111-iran-uae-trade-talks-another-sign-of-improved-regional-ties" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">commerce ministers</span></a> in one direction or the other. This is
despite evidence supporting the contrary view, including Saudi Arabia's first
public display of <a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/saudi-arabias-missile-messaging" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Chinese missiles</span></a> capable of hitting Tehran and the UAE's
announcement of the introduction of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/united-arab-emirates-issues-conscription-law-20146872230517860.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">military conscription</span></a> for the country's youth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The merit, if such a
word can be used, of the carnage in Iraq is that at least it offers clarity.
There are tribal overlays and rival national identities at play, but the
dominant tension is the religious difference between majority Sunni and
minority Shiite Islam. This region-wide phenomenon is taken to extremes by the
likes of ISIS, which also likely sees its action in Iraq as countering Maliki's
support for Assad. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi; padding: 0cm;">ISIS is a ruthless killing
machine, taking Sunni contempt for Shiites to its logical, and bloody, extreme. </span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The Saudi monarch may be more careful to
avoid direct religious insults than many other of his brethren, but contempt
for Shiites no doubt underpinned his WikilLeaked comment about "<a href="http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2010/nov/29/us-cables-%E2%80%9Cwiki-leaked%E2%80%9D-show-gulf-hawkish-iran" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">cutting off the head of the snake</span></a>," meaning the clerical
regime in Tehran. (Prejudice is an equal-opportunity avocation in the Middle
East: Iraqi government officials have been known to ask Iraqis whether they are
Sunni or Shiite before deciding how to treat them.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Despite the attempts
of many, especially in Washington, to write him off, King Abdullah remains
feisty, though helped occasionally by gasps of oxygen -- as when President
Barack Obama met him in March and photos emerged of breathing tubes inserted in
his nostrils. When Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi --
and, after his elder brother's recent stroke, the effective ruler of the UAE --
visited King Abdullah on June 4, the Saudi monarch was shown gesticulating with
both hands. The subject under discussion was not revealed, but since Zayed was
on his way to Cairo it was probably the election success of Egypt's new
president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, considered a stabilizing force by Riyadh and
Abu Dhabi. Of course, Sisi gets extra points for being anti-Muslim Brotherhood,
a group whose Islamist credentials are at odds with the inherited privileges of
Arab monarchies. For the moment, Abdullah, Zayed, and Sisi are the three main
leaders of the Arab world. Indeed, the future path of the Arab countries could
well depend on these men (and whomever succeeds King Abdullah).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For those confused
by the divisions in the Arab world and who find the metric of "the enemy
of my enemy is my friend" to be of limited utility, it is important to
note that the Sunni/Shiite divide coincides, at least approximately, with the
division between the Arab and Persian worlds. In geopolitical terms, Iraq is at
the nexus of these worlds -- majority Shiite but ethnically Arab. There is an
additional and often confusing dimension, although one that's historically
central to Saudi policy: A willingness to support radical Sunnis abroad while
containing their activities at home. Hence Riyadh's arms-length support for
Osama bin Laden when he was leading jihadists in Soviet-controlled Afghanistan,
and tolerance for jihadists in Chechnya, Bosnia, and Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">When the revolt
against Assad grew in 2011 -- and Riyadh's concern at Iran's nuclear program
mounted -- Saudi intelligence reopened its playbook and started supporting the
Sunni opposition, particularly its more radical elements, a strategy guided by
its intelligence chief, former ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin
Sultan. The operation's leadership changed in April, when Bandar resigned in
apparent frustration over dealing with the cautious approach of the Obama
administration, but Saudi support for jihadi fighters appears to be continuing.
(The ISIS operation in Iraq almost seems the sort of tactical surprise that
Bandar could have dreamt up, but there is no actual evidence.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In the fast-moving
battle that is now consuming northern Iraq, there are many variables. For
Washington, the option of inaction has to be balanced by the fate of the
estimated 20,000 American civilians still left in the country (even though the
U.S. military is long-departed). Qatar, the region's opportunist, is likely
balancing its options of irritating its regional rival, Saudi Arabia, while
trying not to poke the Iranian bear. There are no overt Qatari fingerprints yet
visible and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, just celebrating his first full
year in power after his father's abdication in 2013, may be chastened by the
public scolding he received from the rest of the GCC after he was accused of
interference in the domestic affairs of his brother rulers. Additionally, Doha
may be cautious in risking Iran's ire by an adventure in Iraq. Having just
given five Taliban leaders refuge as part of the Bowe Bergdahl swap, Qatar has
effectively clearly stated where it lies in the Sunni-Shiite divide.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">There is a
potentially important historical precedent to Saudi Arabia's current dilemma of
rooting for ISIS but not wanting its advances to threaten the kingdom. In the
1920s, the religious fanatic Ikhwan fighters who were helping Ibn Saud to
conquer Arabia were also threatening the British protectorates of Iraq and
Transjordan. Ibn Saud, the father of the current Saudi king, gave carte blanche
to the British to massacre the Ikhwan with machine-gun equipped biplanes,
personally <a href="http://ibnsaud.info/main/3374.htm" target="_blank"><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #eb1414; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">leading his own forces</span></a> to
finish the job, when the Ikhwan threatened him at the battle of Sabilla in
1929.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">It's hard to imagine
such a neat ending to the chaos evolving in the Euphrates river valley. At this
stage, a direct confrontation between Saudi and Iranian forces seems very
unlikely, even though, as in Syria, the direct involvement of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps cannot be ruled out. What is clear that the Syrian
civil war looks like it will be joined by an Iraqi civil war. ISIS already has
a name for the territory, the al-Sham caliphate. Washington may need to find
its own name for the new area, as well as a policy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b> * </b><!--[endif]--><b><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This articles was
first published in Foreign Policy on 12/06/2014<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">- * <!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow at The Washington
Institute and director of the Institute's Gulf and Energy Policy Program,
specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian
Gulf.</span> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-58029866260125044602014-05-13T03:07:00.000-07:002014-05-13T03:07:30.576-07:00Syria’s Dirty Secret Is That Assad Could Win In A Fair Election<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">By <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/authors/faisal-al-yafai"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Faisal Al
Yafai</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span><img alt="Syrian citizens walking past an election campaign billboard with photo of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, 11 May 2014. EPA/SANA HANDOUT" height="212" src="http://www.thenational.ae/storyimage/AB/20140512/OPINION/140519707/AR/0/AR-140519707.jpg&MaxW=460&imageVersion=default" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white;">There is a presidential election in Syria and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="http://www.thenational.ae/world/bashar-al-assad"><span style="color: #1578c9;">Bashar
Al Assad</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">is going to win. The only
question is by how much.</span></span><br />
<br />
As a presidential candidate, Mr Al Assad has done quite well. He has overseen a
truce that has seen one of the country’s largest cities return to government
control. He has maintained his relationships with his allies in Iran and
Hizbollah. He still cuts a man of the people stance, in marked contrast to the
extremists who seek to run the country.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">He is, above all, a known quantity, a man who has led the country
through difficult times, promises stability and is backed by an army that can
deliver it. All in all, Mr Al Assad looks like a credible candidate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Though only, of course, if you overlook the fact that he caused the
civil war that rages today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But there is a serious reason to understand why Mr Al Assad is seen by many
within and without <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/world/syria"><span style="color: #1578c9; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Syria</span></a> as
a credible candidate. Because many will vote for him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Certainly, that is because there is no real alternative, because the
only places in which voting will take place are under government control,
because 40 years of propaganda have removed any alternative – and because the
Assad regime has spent three years demonstrating what it means by the slogan
“Assad or we burn the country”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But the dirty secret in Syria today is that, if the presidential
election were free and fair, Bashar Al Assad would still win.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">However unpalatable it is, the man who has overseen the systematic
destruction of the country, who has made more refugees than anyone else in the
Middle East this century, is still popular. We ought to ask why.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The last time Mr Al Assad faced a popular vote, in 2007, I was in Syria.
Buildings and highways were emblazoned with the Arabic word for “Yes”. Although
billed as a presidential election, it wasn’t: the parliament had merely
proposed that Mr Al Assad be nominated as president for a second term and the
public were asked to ratify this decision. Unsurprisingly, they did, all 97 per
cent of them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yet even the opposition inside the country conceded that, were there a
free vote, Mr Al Assad would still have won. The regime was popular – not 97
per cent popular, but popular enough for a majority.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">To understand why, and to understand why millions will vote for Mr Al
Assad in three weeks, it is important to understand how Syrians saw themselves
then and how they see their country today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2007, and even up to 2011, life was getting better in Syria. It
wasn’t moving fast enough and the country was riddled with corruption, but for
many of the urban middle-class in Damascus and Aleppo, life was better than it
had been. Syria was safer than any neighbouring country. The chaos of Iraq next
door felt far away.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The uprising changed that. Many who supported it in the beginning, when
it looked like it would swiftly topple a long-standing regime, regretted their
position as months became a year and a year became three.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It is one thing to fight for an idea: the revolutionaries of Tahrir
Square had no thought who would follow <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/world/hosni-mubarak"><span style="color: #1578c9; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Hosni Mubarak</span></a>, they just
felt it had to get better. Similarly for the Syrian revolutionaries. But
gradually, what started as a dream took on a form: no longer were thawra and
hurriya, revolution and freedom, slogans. They became personified, first in the
person of Mohammed Morsi and then in the faces and actions of the Islamists who
flooded into Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The secular society – enforced, certainly, but existing – that the Assad
regime has created was under threat. And who would defend it? The politicians
of the Syrian opposition? They were unknowns, long in exile, squabbling over
who would sit on a throne not yet vacated. To Syrians inside the country, they
looked like they were arguing over dividing up the spoils of a battle they were
not fighting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The future these groups offered was unknown or unpalatable. Even those
who don’t accept the propaganda that the rebels are terrorists can accept that
the regime is brutal and murderous – and still prefer it to the unknown rebels
and lawless gangs that promise to follow the regime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">For those who have not suffered loved ones killed or in exile – or for
those who have but who blame the Syrian rebels for their deaths, directly or
indirectly – life with Mr Al Assad is still preferable to the unknown without
him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That should make the Syrian opposition and the international community
think very seriously about their policies, about their outreach and about what
message they are sending to the people inside the country. Even the flow of
weapons to the rebels has a political dimension, because support will follow
success and success requires arms. By arming the moderates, the international
community will empower them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Syrian civil war is not over. The withdrawal from Homs did not end
it and the presidential election, regardless of the declarations of Mr Al
Assad, Hizbollah or Iran, will not end the revolution. For millions, there is
no way back. After seeing their families killed, seeing their children
scrabbling in the dirt for food, seeing their neighbourhoods bombed to pieces,
there is no accommodation with a regime. There is only rebellion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">But the opposition must understand that there are millions inside the
country who need a message, who need a vision of what Syria without Mr Al Assad
would look like. If they cannot fill in the blanks for Syrians, they cannot
expect Syrians to fight for the unknown.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>- This article was published first in The National on 13/05/2014</i></span> <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6566535412911486458.post-88984894517420789962013-11-24T01:59:00.000-08:002013-11-24T01:59:20.626-08:00Deal Reached to Halt Iran's Nuclear Program<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 26.25pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-outline-level: 1;">
<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #666666; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; padding: 0cm;"><i><b>By <a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/blog/774068"><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Yochi Dreazen</span></a> from
Geneva</b></i></span><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: -.5pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #666666; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; padding: 0cm;"><img height="267" src="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/files/iran_handshake_0.jpg" width="400" /></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 20.4pt; margin-bottom: 14.4pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The historic nuclear deal Iran signed with the United
States and five other world powers early Sunday morning represents the biggest
gamble of President Barack Obama's presidency, and the success or failure of
that bet will have serious repercussions for the administration's standing on
Capitol Hill, Washington's relationships with Israel and other Middle Eastern
allies, and the national security of the United States itself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The deal painstakingly assembled
during four days of marathon negotiations at a luxury hotel here calls for Iran
to halt most of its uranium enrichment efforts, eliminate its stockpiles of
uranium already purified to near weapons grade quality, open its facilities to
daily monitoring by international inspectors and significantly slow the
construction of the Arak plutonium reactor. Nuclear weapons can be assembled
using either enriched uranium or plutonium, and the new pact is designed to
make it difficult, if not impossible, for Iran to gain enough of either
material for a bomb.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">In exchange, Iran would gain some
relief from the punishing economic sanctions that had been leveled by
Washington and its allies in recent years, freeing up roughly $6 billion.
Tehran also won a commitment that the so-called P5+1 nations - the United
States, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain - wouldn't impose any new
sanctions for the next six months. That was an important win for the Iranians
since the existing measures have cut its oil exports in half and driven the
price of its currency down to a historic low.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The negotiations between the two sides have been going on in
stops and starts for nearly a decade, but the actual unveiling of the deal was
strangely muted. The text of the agreement itself was signed at roughly 3:30 AM
in Geneva's Palais des Nations in a quiet ceremony open to only a small number
of reporters and not televised or otherwise broadcast electronically. Lady
Catherine Ashton, the European Union's chief diplomat and one of the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/11/22/did_this_low_profile_british_aristocrat_just_save_the_iran_talks" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; outline: 0px;"><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">prime architects</span></b></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>of
the deal, didn't participate in the public rollout of the agreement or take any
questions from reporters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">President Obama, speaking from the
White House, said the deal "halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear
program" and "cut off Iran's most likely paths to a bomb." He
also stressed that the agreement was an interim measure designed to give
negotiators from both sides six months to work towards a broader, permanent
nuclear agreement. If a deal couldn't be reached - or if the United States
found evidence that Iran was trying to secretly continue work on its nuclear
weapons program - Obama promised to restore the sanctions that had been lifted
and impose harsh new ones.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The White House moved quickly to try
to preempt criticism that the deal gave Iran too much. A senior
administration official in Washington said the primary U.S. sanctions against
Iran's oil and banking sectors would remain fully intact, which means that Iran
would lose roughly $30 billion in oil revenue over the next six months, far
more than it stands to gain as part of the agreement. "Iran will
actually be worse off at the end of this six month deal than it is today,"
the official said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">With the agreement in place, the
administration is now gambling that it can overcome three distinct challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">First, the White House has to
persuade skeptical lawmakers to hold off on imposing new sanctions on Iran
during the next six months. That may be a hard sell given the number of
lawmakers from both parties who want to increase the sanctions on Iran rather
than softening or relieving any of the existing measures. Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, a close White House ally, has said he's prepared
to take up a tough new sanctions bill when the Senate comes back into session
next month. The bill would almost certainly pass if it was put to a full vote.
Secretary of State John Kerry said Obama was prepared to veto new sanctions
legislation, but that's a battle the White House would dearly love to avoid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Next, the administration faces the
tough task of convincing Israel that the deal does enough to constrain Iran's
nuclear program that Israel should give the administration more time to work
out a permanent pact with Tehran rather than resorting to unilateral military
strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was harshly critical of
earlier iterations of the nuclear deal and has promised to do whatever is
necessary to protect his country. Administration officials said Obama would
speak to Netanyahu Sunday to brief him on the details of the deal. One official
said in an interview that the White House felt that Netanyahu, no matter how
angry he was about the agreement, would reluctantly give the administration six
months to test Tehran's intentions. With the P5+1 countries committed to
ongoing negotiations with Iran, the official said that Netanyahu knows any
military action would risk rupturing Israel's relationships with the U.S.,
China and most of Europe. "Bibi will hold his nose, but he'll let us have
six months," the official said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The third and final unknown is what
the deal will ultimately mean for American national security. The
agreement imposes an unprecedented number of new restrictions on Iran's nuclear
program and, if fully implemented, would make it extraordinarily difficult for
Tehran to obtain a bomb. Still, the deal doesn't require Iran to disassemble
any of its roughly 19,000 centrifuges or to destroy all of its uranium
enrichment equipment. Netanyahu and other critics argue that leaving the core
infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program intact means that Tehran could restart
its weapons push anytime it wants, particularly if it senses that the West has
lost its appetite for further sanctions or the potential use of military force.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; line-height: 20.4pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 14.4pt; outline: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: "Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Even if the deal succeeds in freezing
Iran's nuclear program, meanwhile, Washington and Tehran still remain on
opposite sides of the Syrian civil war and face lingerng disputes over Iran's
support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, a network of heavily-armed Shiite militias in
Iraq, and Shiite activist groups in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states.
The nuclear deal could clear the way for further pacts down the road devoted
specifically to issues like reducing Tehran's support for the regime of Syrian
strongman Bashar al-Assad. For the moment, though, those disputes serve
as reminders of just how enormous a bet Obama has made by inking this new
nuclear deal with Tehran. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Cambria, serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b> -This report was first published in Foreign Policy on 24/11/2013</b></i></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17239973043273328032noreply@blogger.com0